X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Who's #1? Early Look at Picking First Overall

Fernando Tatis Jr. - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

With the off-season fully underway and early drafts already taking place, it’s time to start looking at those players being selected first in drafts. This year offers a very different set of players than we’ve seen in recent memory.

Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, and Ronald Acuna Jr. have all fallen out of contention for first selection overall, and Fernando Tatis is now accompanied by the likes of Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Shohei Ohtani at the first slot on the draft board.

Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1  Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 1.83 1 6
2  Trea Turner LAD 2B, SS 1.87 1 5
3  Juan Soto WAS OF 3.65 1 8
4  Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 4.87 1 9
5  Bo Bichette TOR SS 5.05 2 9
6  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 5.78 3 12
7  Shohei Ohtani LAA P, UT 7.92 1 20
8  Gerrit Cole NYY P 9.06 3 18
9  Corbin Burnes MLW P 9.87 4 17
10  Bryce Harper PHI OF 11.08 7 18
11  Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 12.03 4 27
12  Kyle Tucker HOU OF 12.65 6 21
13  Mookie Betts LAD OF 13.48 7 22
14  Walker Buehler LAD P 14.67 3 27
15  Mike Trout LAA OF 15.43 8 29

Despite the turnover, that list offers three high-confidence players and the unanimous AL MVP. Noticeably absent from the players from that list is last year’s 5x5 fantasy MVP: Vlad Guerrero Jr. That’s particularly confounding given that he is the second most valuable player based on Steamer’s initial projections. Let’s look at those five players and the arguments for and against taking each one first.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association including Baseball Writer of the Year, Football Writers of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year and many more! Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Fernando Tatis Jr. – Padres (SS, OF)

With all due respect to Ronald Acuna Jr., Tatis is the most dynamic player in the game, and it’s easy to see why he sits at the top of the current ADP charts. Tatis’ value per game was higher than any other player.

PlayerName Total Val Games $/G
Fernando Tatis Jr. $34.50 130 $0.27
Trea Turner $38.20 148 $0.26
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $38.90 161 $0.24
Bo Bichette $38.40 159 $0.24
Starling Marte $27.90 120 $0.23
Jose Ramirez $34.60 152 $0.23
Shohei Ohtani $34.30 158 $0.22
Teoscar Hernandez $30.50 143 $0.21
Bryce Harper $29.50 141 $0.21
Marcus Semien $33.40 162 $0.21
Juan Soto $30.30 151 $0.20

Tatis offers power, average, and speed. Despite being one of the most potent offensive players in 2019 and 2020, Tatis set career highs in power (.328 ISO), OPS (.975), and wOBA (.403). Those numbers were beautifully complemented by personal bests in a variety of Statcast categories as well, including maxEV (116.6 MPH), Barrel/PA (12.8), and xwOBA (.419). Simply put, Tatis is awesome, has been awesome, and shows every sign of continuing to be awesome.

Unfortunately, the injury risk is real with Tatis. He suffered a subluxated shoulder three times last season, but rather than opting for surgery to correct the injury, he’s chosen to rehab it this off-season. The obvious concern is that the injury worsens and forces him to get surgery in the middle of the season. The more likely situation is that he misses time, suffers reduced effectiveness, and gets held back by his team as they attempt to keep him healthy.

It’s worth noting that Tatis has suffered a stress fracture in his back during his rookie season after he had already dealt with a hamstring strain that derailed the start of his rookie season in 2019 and a thumb injury that ended his 2018 season. That is a lot of injuries for a young player.

Worse, Tatis stole only two bases in his final 42 games. Compare that to 23 steals in his previous 87 games. The reality is that steals offer so little value to most teams that it’s easy to imagine the Padres protecting Tatis’ health by limiting his stolen base attempts.

If that happens, Tatis’ value per game becomes much closer to the other names going in the first round. In fact, if we split the difference in the steals, Tatis’ projected value falls to Juan Soto levels, even though Steamer predicts him for 150 games. Maybe it’s just me, but that estimate seems bullish given Tatis’ injury history.

Final Thought: Does the injury risk even matter? If SS is so deep and you can get 110 games of a healthy Tatis, another 50 games of replacement-level SS work might still make Tatis a better selection than any other play here.

 

Trea Turner – Dodgers (2B, SS)

Since 2019, only one player has provided at least 30 steals and a .200 ISO. I’m prorating 2020, of course, but Turner’s consistency speaks for itself. For years, he has been the most stable and compelling source of steals in fantasy baseball. What’s more, he was just below Tatis’ value per game last season.

If you’re drafting Trea Turner, you should be drafting him as a second baseman so you can take advantage of the extraordinary depth at SS. That would give fantasy managers a distinct middle-infield advantage. Granted there is still depth and value at second base. It’s not the wasteland that we sometimes see. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Ozzie Albies, Brandon Lowe, or even Jonathan India take the next step and launch themselves into the top-10 hitters. However, Turner’s Steamer projection of $32 is $12 higher than the next second basemen, Ozzie Albies at $20.

Where Tatis figures to steal fewer bases, Turner should offer more bankable steals. If owners are focused on prioritizing speed at the top of their draft board and want to take advantage of the comparative advantage of having a superstar at the second shallowest position. Turner makes a compelling case. Dodger Stadium might suppress his power a bit, but runs and RBI should improve compared to his time with Washington last season, and owners can reasonably expect a return of 60 HR+SB, a batting average near .300 and 180 R+RBI from their second-base position.

The downside to Turner is that he does have his own injury history, spent a good deal of last season not stealing bags, and is probably the least likely player on this list to finish as the most valuable player of 2022.

Final Thought: Even as a shortstop, Trea Turner is a five-category contributor who will boost his RBI numbers in the Dodgers’ lineup. He gives owners far more draft flexibility by covering three of the scarcest parts of the game: steals, batting average, and second base.

 

Juan Soto – Nationals (OF)

The argument for Juan Soto as the number one overall pick is that he provides the absolute highest floor of any player on this list. Soto will be 23 years old, has never hit below .282, has never had an ISO below .221, has never dealt with a major injury, and sports an absurd 1.54 BB/K ratio over the last two years. Yes, that’s right, he’s garnered 1.5 walks for every strikeout over the last two seasons. He’s even shown he can steal a few bases.

Here are Juan Soto’s 650-PA career average and career floor:

Juan Soto R HR RBI SB AVG OBP ISO wRC+
Career Average 109.4 31.8 101.2 10.4 .301 .432 .249 156
Floor 101.3 28.8 92.1 6.6 .282 .401 .221 .143

If we calculate out the value of those numbers, Soto’s career worsts would have made him the 33rd most valuable player in fantasy baseball last season. His career average would put him exactly where he finished this season: the 10th best hitter and 12th overall.

Final Thought: Many managers will see that and point out that the first overall pick should be the player who has the best chance to finish the season as the most valuable player in fantasy. However, there are plenty of others who prioritize getting first-round value from their first pick. For those owners, Juan Soto is the play. Short of catastrophic injury, he represents the safest bet to return top-20 value.

 

Jose Ramirez – Guardians (3B)

If we’re talking about Soto as safe, there stands Jose Ramirez. If you absolutely have to get a value floor and want steals, Jose Ramirez has been a top-five offensive player for three of the last four seasons, and a top-10 offensive player for the last five seasons.

Ramirez provides top-tier power and speed. Last year was another quintessential campaign, showcasing a 111 R, 36 HR, 103 RBI, 27 SB, and .266 average.

Ramirez’s only “down” season came in 2019 because he of a broken hand that required surgery to heal. Otherwise, he has been as durable a player as they come, and despite some hot-and-cold streaks over the last three years, the numbers are always there at the end of the season.

Moreover, Ramirez's offensive profile means that despite those streaks, he's not likely to collapse. Most of Ramirez's reputation focuses on his power-speed combination, but the Cleveland third baseman owns elite plate discipline that further cements his floor. Since 2018, his .92 BB/K rate is fourth-best in baseball.

Final Thought: Ramirez is the oldest player on this list, but he’ll still be 29 when the season starts, and last season showed there’s no reason to bet against him. As long as the Guardians let him run, Ramirez offers steals similar Turner’s and consistency to rival Soto.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Blue Jays (1B)

As of my submission deadline, Vlad Guerrero Jr., 2021 fantasy baseball MVP, had not yet been selected first in an NFBC draft. I fully expect that to change by the time we finish draft season, and though it may not be a popular choice yet. It's definitely a viable selection.

The Blue Jays first baseman slugged 48 HR, scored 123 times, drove in 111 runs, and hit .311 over 161 games. He even chipped in four steals along the way.

Steamer looked at those results and basically said, “Yeah, that seems about right for next year too.” Currently, Guerrero’s projections peg him for 43 HR (second overall), 108 R (fourth), 120 RBI (first), a .310 AVG (T1), and three SB (not first).

The argument against Vlad is two-fold: a full season in the Rogers Centre might suppress his power output, and Juan Soto exists.

The answer is probably that Guerrero's ceiling is higher than Soto's and he doesn't have the inherent injury risk of Tatis' profile. It could be that the first base landscape is a lot less compelling than the outfield. Or maybe you’ve been a victim of the Soto Shuffle, and you just can’t handle seeing his name at the top of your draft board. There are a few reasons, I suppose.

Final Thought: Guerrero is surely going to get some first overall picks this season, and many of those will surely be the same owners that he carried to victory last year. He looks like the classic anchor to a fantasy roster: the offensive rock who offers elite power and elite average. Right now, someone is already planning to pair him with Myles Straw 

 

Shohei Ohtani – Angels (SP, UT)

If there’s a dark-horse, wildcard, surprise name on this list, it’s Shohei Ohtani. Despite winning the unanimous AL MVP, Ohtani’s injury risk and problematic value are going to drive away fantasy managers and depress his ADP, and in many situations that’s going to be the correct move. In Yahoo leagues and in most weekly leagues where managers have to submit their lineup on Monday, Ohtani should not be considered at the first overall pick because the injury should be considered at least as high as Tatis.

However, in best ball formats and daily leagues where managers can shift Ohtani from hitter to pitcher on a daily basis, Ohtani offers a higher ceiling than even Tatis. If you combine Ohtani’s hitter and pitcher projections, he scores out as a $48 value, a dollar higher than Tatis, and his versatility gives owners an extra roster spot and flexibility.

Without a doubt, Tatis’ 42 HR, 25 SB season was as gaudy as they come, but Ohtani outstripped him with 46 HR and 26 SB. Granted, Ohtani needed another 28 games to get that advantage, but he still represents a phenomenal power-speed combination. Moreover, given Ohtani’s speed, owners should expect some improvement in his BABIP and batting average.

As long as Ohtani plays on both sides of the ball, his injury risk is astronomical. There’s no avoiding that. Moreover, while Ohtani’s bat looks as poised for a repeat of 2021, his pitching projections are less rosy. Steamer likes him for a 3.69 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 192 Ks in 165 IP. I like the odds of Ohtani beating those numbers, but not by much, and if the pitching work falters, the overall value starts to decline.

Final Thought: In the right context, Ohtani projects to outearn every other player on this list. However, if league context makes it impossible to take advantage of his abilities or you are simply risk-averse, there are better players on this list.

 

Conclusion

The top of the 2022 draft board looks dramatically different than 2021. Last year, Trout, Acuna, Betts, and Tatis projected for similar values and had similar profiles. 2022’s draft board has players who look meaningfully different, offer different advantages, and carry different risks.

Trea Turner offers speed, stability, and second base eligibility. Vlad Guerrero could compete for the AL Triple Crown again, but you’ll have to find speed elsewhere. Juan Soto is an offensive rock that shuffles and hustles and won’t let you down. Shohei Ohtani is the most unique option here and opens up all kinds of strategic possibilities for managers.

However, if you want  ceiling and the player most likely to win an MVP award, abide the wisdom of the crowd and take Tatis, then say a prayer to the patron saints of shoulder health.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Kevin Harvick14 mins ago

Should Contend For Win At Richmond
Christopher Bell14 mins ago

Looking To Continue “Young Gun” Winning Ways
Ryan Blaney15 mins ago

Can Ryan Blaney Get His First Ever Top 5 Finish At Richmond, His Worst Track?
Brett Wisely28 mins ago

Optioned To Sacramento
Alex Bowman28 mins ago

Points Leader Alex Bowman Will Start From 1st At Richmond on Sunday
Chase Briscoe39 mins ago

A Strong Sleeper Option At Richmond
Joey Bart39 mins ago

Won't Play On Saturday
Austin Dillon44 mins ago

Needs A Strong Run At Richmond This Weekend
Mychal Givens46 mins ago

To Throw Next Week
Michael McDowell48 mins ago

Could Surprise At Richmond Despite Poor Track Record
Martin Truex Jr54 mins ago

. Seeking First Top 5 of the Season at Richmond
Chris Buescher54 mins ago

A Sleeper At Richmond This Weekend
Aric Almirola57 mins ago

Looking To Give Season A Boost At One Of His Best Tracks
Mitch Haniger1 hour ago

To Be Re-Evaluated Next Weekend
Logan Webb1 hour ago

Next Start Moved Up
Darrynton Evans2 hours ago

Signs With The Colts
Alex Lyon2 hours ago

Gets The Nod Saturday
Luis Severino2 hours ago

Started Throwing On Friday
Rachaad White2 hours ago

Projected To Be A Three-Down Back
Jake Oettinger2 hours ago

Confirmed Starter Against Colorado
Sean Murphy2 hours ago

Getting The Day Off On Saturday
Brock Purdy2 hours ago

Rehab Going Well For Brock Purdy
Alex Stalock2 hours ago

Tends Twine Saturday Against Devils
Starling Marte2 hours ago

Taking A Seat On Saturday
Whit Merrifield3 hours ago

Not In The Lineup On Saturday
Ivan Prosvetov3 hours ago

Set To Start Against San Jose
Luis Urías3 hours ago

Luis Urias To Miss Six To Eight Weeks
Marc-Andre Fleury3 hours ago

Protects The Crease Versus Vegas
Lars Nootbaar3 hours ago

Absent From Lineup On Saturday
Matthew Liberatore4 hours ago

Throws Five Scoreless Innings For Memphis
Joey Wiemer4 hours ago

Hitting Ninth In MLB Debut
Patrick Wisdom4 hours ago

Nick Madrigal In, Patrick Wisdom Out Saturday
Donovan Mitchell5 hours ago

Goes For 40-Plus Points Again
Julio Rodríguez5 hours ago

Julio Rodriguez Hits Two Doubles In Loss Friday
Lars Nootbaar5 hours ago

On The Bench Saturday
Jalen Brunson5 hours ago

Has A Career Night With 48 Points
Garrett Whitlock5 hours ago

Gives Up A Run In Rehab Outing
Joey Votto5 hours ago

Heads Out On Rehab Assignment
Mikal Bridges5 hours ago

Drops 42 Points On Atlanta
Michael Massey5 hours ago

Not Playing Saturday
Talen Horton-Tucker5 hours ago

Has Another Productive Outing
Willson Contreras5 hours ago

Out Saturday
Juan Soto5 hours ago

Not Focused On Contract Situation
Paolo Banchero5 hours ago

Shines Against Washington
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander5 hours ago

Piles Up 39 Points Friday
Anthony Davis5 hours ago

Battles Through Injury For A Big Double-Double
Jonathan Toews6 hours ago

Returns To Action Saturday
Tyler Toffoli6 hours ago

Nets Two Goals Against Vancouver
Clayton Keller6 hours ago

Keeps Point Streak Going Friday
Jason Robertson6 hours ago

Sets New Stars Scoring Record
Adam Fox6 hours ago

Continues Hot Spell With A Goal
Casey Mittelstadt6 hours ago

Hands Out Two Assists
Tee Higgins15 hours ago

Not Concerned About Contract Situation
Jeff Skinner15 hours ago

Scores Game-Winning Goal In Overtime
Devon Levi16 hours ago

Earns Victory In NHL Debut
Seattle Seahawks20 hours ago

Ryan Neal Becomes Free Agent
Pharaoh Brown20 hours ago

Joins Colts
Darrynton Evans20 hours ago

To Meet With Colts
Laquon Treadwell20 hours ago

Working Out For Cowboys
Zach Collins20 hours ago

Out Against Golden State
De'Andre Hunter21 hours ago

Out With A Knee Injury On Friday
Obi Toppin21 hours ago

Will Start Against The Cavs
Jarrett Allen21 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Friday
Portland Trail Blazers24 hours ago

LaMarcus Aldridge Officially Retires From The NBA
Jamal Murray24 hours ago

Considered Questionable Against Phoenix
Nikola Jokic24 hours ago

Could Miss His Second Consecutive Game
Kenyon Martin1 day ago

Jr. Uncertain To Play Against Detroit
Tobias Harris1 day ago

Could Miss Friday's Game Against Toronto
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander1 day ago

Upgraded To Questionable On Friday
Al Horford1 day ago

Uncertain To Suit Up On Friday
Jaylen Brown1 day ago

Tagged As Questionable With Lower-Back Pain
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Questionable Against Utah
Kelly Olynyk1 day ago

Is Available Against Boston On Friday
Trayveon Williams1 day ago

Bengals Have High Hopes For Trayveon Williams
Joe Burrow1 day ago

Bengals Begin Extension Discussions With Joe Burrow
Mac Jones1 day ago

Bill Belichick Still Non-Committal On Mac Jones
Sammy Blais1 day ago

Extends Point Streak To Six Games
Cam Talbot1 day ago

Makes A Winning Return
Matthew Beniers1 day ago

Logs Two Points Against Anaheim
Stuart Skinner1 day ago

Grabs A 43-Save Shutout
Tristan Jarry1 day ago

Records His Second Shutout
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Rolls To Four Points Versus Montreal
T.J. Oshie1 day ago

Exits With An Upper-Body Injury
Mikey Anderson1 day ago

Injured On First Shift Thursday
Baltimore Ravens2 days ago

Ravens Have Been Active In Receiver Market
Baker Mayfield2 days ago

Kyle Trask To Compete In Training Camp
Courtland Sutton2 days ago

Broncos Could Still Trade Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton
DeAndre Hopkins2 days ago

To Stay With Cardinals?
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Jets The Most Likely Landing Spot For Odell Beckham Jr.
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Panthers Not Settled On One QB For No. 1 Pick
Lamar Jackson2 days ago

Not Seeking Fully Guaranteed Deal
Nathan Peterman2 days ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Dre Miller2 days ago

Kendre Miller Ahead Of Schedule
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Bills Re-Sign Jordan Phillips
Brendon Todd3 days ago

Has Success At TPC San Antonio
Ben Martin3 days ago

Has Value At TPC San Antonio
Nick Taylor3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At Valero
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sleeper Option At TPC San Antonio
Chris Kirk3 days ago

A Good Option At The Valero Texas Open
Matt Kuchar3 days ago

Loves Playing TPC San Antonio
Will Gordon3 days ago

Offers A Wild-Card Option At Valero
Cam Davis3 days ago

Can Keep His Current Form At TPC San Antonio
Mark Hubbard4 days ago

A Low-Risk Value Option At Valero
Tyler Duncan4 days ago

Start Tyler Duncan At TPC San Antonio
Emiliano Grillo4 days ago

Not Recommended At Valero
Patrick Rodgers4 days ago

Don't Give Patrick Rodgers A Shot At Valero
Adam Schenk4 days ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore4 days ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger4 days ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Si Woo Kim4 days ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery4 days ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners4 days ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Thomas Detry4 days ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia4 days ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR5 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera5 days ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen5 days ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos5 days ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm5 days ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr5 days ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee5 days ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani5 days ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron5 days ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain5 days ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch5 days ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF