4 Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers - Jakob Marsee, Max Scherzer, Kyle Tucker, Seth Lugo

August 19, 2025

Connelly's fantasy baseball risers and fallers for Week 21 of 2025. He assesses hitters and pitchers performing well and poorly to determine their future value.

Welcome, everyone, to another edition of RotoBaller’s Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers article series for Week 21 of the 2025 season! Today, I'll look at Jakob Marsee, Max Scherzer, Kyle Tucker, and Seth Lugo.

Keeping up with the latest hitter and pitcher trends is a key component for a successful season, and RotoBaller is here to help fantasy managers! Each week, I will select a few players who have performed well recently and a few who have not, and I will analyze their performances to determine how their future outcomes may be affected.

Whether fantasy managers are pushing for the playoffs or looking to solidify standing in roto leagues, the implications of every roster move are magnified at this point in the season. Tough decisions will have to be made, so let's take a look at some Fantasy Risers and Fallers!

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Fantasy Baseball Hitter Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 17, 2025

Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (OF)

.353/.450/.706 Slash Line, 3 HRs, 13 RBI, 6 SBs

August is around the time when teams call up prospects to give them a taste of the big leagues, some of whom fantasy managers can benefit from. Marsee seems like he could be one of those players. The former Padres prospect was traded to the Marlins last season and has been on fire since getting called up at the beginning of August. Could he be an asset for the fantasy playoffs?

Jakob Marsee in his first 13 career games:

3 HR
13 RBI
6 SB
1.414 OPS pic.twitter.com/WFnRwFxwCN

— MLB (@MLB) August 14, 2025

The 24-year-old had a down 2024 season, and while he showcased his power/speed combination with Triple-A Jacksonville this season, he was only batting .246 before getting called up. His current .353 batting average is not sustainable, nor is his .455 BABIP, but Marsee was graded as an average hit tool and should benefit from his above-average speed.

He has a small sample size of 60 plate appearances to go off, but Marsee has done everything exceptionally, per Statcast. He has hit the ball extremely hard with an average exit velocity of 92.6 MPH and a 52.5% hard-hit rate. He has also managed a strong 18.3% strikeout rate and a 15.0% walk rate, which are in line with his minor league numbers.

No one should expect Marsee to maintain his outstanding numbers to this degree, even if he had been hitting well before his call-up. That being said, Marsee does have some prospect pedigree and flashed skills in the minors. Fantasy managers in dynasty and keep leagues will have to consider his current performance for next season, but those in redraft leagues should have no problem playing the hot hand.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Riser

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 17, 2025

Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays

3-2, 3.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 24.1% Strikeout Rate, 54 IP

At age 41, battling myriad injuries, it finally seemed time to bid farewell to Scherzer for fantasy. However, he has looked solid when on the mound, compiling a 3.83 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate in 10 starts and 54 innings pitched. He has been on a roll lately, tossing four consecutive quality starts. Could Mad Max have one more fantasy run left in him?

The matchups haven’t been easy for him, with three of his last four starts coming against the Tigers, Dodgers, and Cubs. As he has throughout his career, Scherzer has generated weak contact in the air. His 88.1 MPH average exit velocity, 36.1% hard-hit rate, and 22.9-degree launch angle over his last four starts have been right in line with his season marks.

He has continued to maintain an above-average strikeout rate by relying on his slider. His slider has historically been his best swing-and-miss pitch. While his current 16.2% swinging strike rate isn't the highest he has generated, he has used the slider more than ever, with a 24.5% usage.

Max Scherzer, Nasty 86mph Slider. 😨

7th K pic.twitter.com/2Slgcm3oxN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 1, 2025

Scherzer has dealt with thumb issues this season, which have impacted other aspects of his health, but he has been competitive when he has been on the mound. The Blue Jays are in first place in the American League East, so there's no reason for them not to have Scherzer give it his all each start. I think he is a worthy fantasy option for the rest of the season.

Fantasy Baseball Hitter Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 17, 2025

Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs (OF)

.265/.377/.454 Slash Line, 18 HRs, 62 RBI, 25 SBs

Tucker has been a top-tier fantasy option throughout his fantasy career, and his first season with the Cubs has been a success overall. Much like the Cubs lineup overall, Tucker has struggled in the second half, managing just a .182/.344/.247 slash line with one HR and two stolen bases. How worried should fantasy managers be?

“Normally, I don’t show much emotion out there or anything, I just try and do my job. It’s been tough the last 2 months or so.”

Kyle Tucker on showing more frustration at the plate. pic.twitter.com/pcdqXmADdA

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 16, 2025

Fortunately, things don't look as bad as they seem. Tucker's approach at the plate has been sound, with his 18.4% walk rate and 15.3% strikeout rate in the second half as good or better than his season marks. His 89 MPH average exit velocity and 35.9% hard-hit rate aren't as strong as his season marks, but they are still respectable.

Some of this can be chalked up to bad luck. Tucker's .213 BABIP is much lower than his .279 season mark, despite having a decent batted-ball profile. On the other hand, Tucker has just one barrel in the second half, and nothing can explain his lack of stolen base attempts after he was so successful in the first half.

Fantasy managers who roster Tucker may have already benched him if they had the depth to do so. His production has been disappointing, but things have been ok under the hood. Every roster spot matters, but Tucker has been such a high-end fantasy asset for such a long time that I would have difficulty dropping him from my roster at this time.

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Faller

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, August 17, 2025

Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals

8-6, 3.77 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 20.2% Strikeout Rate, 131 1/3 IP

Lugo emerged as a high-floor fantasy starter several seasons ago. His tenure with the Royals has gone well, to the point that they have given him a two-year extension with $46 million guaranteed. His season stats are in line with expectations, but he has been dreadful in the second half with a 7.42 ERA, a 1.78 WHIP, and a 15.4% strikeout rate. Can he be trusted the rest of the way?

Several things stand out for Lugo’s second half. He isn’t an overpowering pitcher and has mixed in 10 different pitches over the season, so everything has to line up for him to be successful.

Control has been a big issue for him in the second half. Walks have never been an issue for him, as he owns a career 6.6% walk rate. However, he has walked at least two batters in five of his six second-half starts, leading to an 11.2% walk rate.

This issue has been compounded by allowing home runs. Lugo’s career HR/FB rate is a respectable 11.9%. His second-half batted-ball profile, while lackluster, is in line with his season marks. Unfortunately, his HR/FB rate has blown up to 19.5%.

It is hard to pinpoint exactly why Lugo has taken a nosedive in the second half, but his numbers speak for themselves. He has walked too many batters and has consequently seen a dip in strikeouts. He has also allowed more HRs, allowing those free passes to come around and score.

I would take a wait-and-see approach with him in points leagues if I could afford the bench spot, but I don’t think I would trust Lugo down the stretch in roto leagues.

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