The Baller Ranks: Top 200 Hitters Weekly Rankings (Week 7)

September 3, 2020

David Emerick's Baller Ranks for 9/3/20 are weekly fantasy baseball rankings for the top 200 hitters. He ranks and analyzes updated hitter values for Week 7 of MLB.

The past week brought us one of the coolest trade deadlines in recent memory. It's always a good time when the GM of an MLB franchise starts making trades like a fantasy manager. The changes for Austin Nola, Mitch Moreland, Jonathan Villar, Starling Marte, and Jon Berti are meaningful, but not with clear fantasy implications. At least not yet...

Nick Mariano did capture ranking changes for both starting pitchers and relievers with his top-101 articles. If you missed those, be sure to check them out. If you need help with saves, his reliever article has a quick, useful update on bullpens around the league.

The hitter ranks saw plenty of action and some fascinating developments, but most of those have been performance-related. For instance, Fernando Tatis Jr's collective projections outstretched Story's collective projections for the first time, and you can see that reflected in these rankings. Trea Turner's best base-stealing days may be behind him, but he's been more valuable than ever. And Juan Soto's projections are starting to exceed some of Mike Trout's, even on a per-game basis.

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In more frustrating news, the top end of 2B is a mess. Keston Hiura sits at the top of the heap, and he's featured in the write-up below. Whit Merrifield is close behind, and it's entirely possible that the only managers happy with the value of their second basemen are those who drafted Merrifield and Lowe. This type of chaos has been pretty standard for this season, but some of the issues are starting to crystallize.

Likewise, it's worth remembering that many teams have far more games left, as I reported last week. That discrepancy is impacting player value and causing some disconcerting changes in projected values. If you see a player who has had a bad stretch but an increase in projected value, it's probably tied to their number of remaining games. Here are the Meta Report for week 7 and the Baller Ranks Top-200 hitters. If you're unfamiliar with the Meta Report, here's a quick guide on what it is and how to read it.

Austin Nola (C, Padres)

Nola has been on my list of players to examine more closely for the last two weeks, but I didn't prioritize him because his projections were still so abysmal. Both weeks, I ran out of space and time to do a full evaluation either week. As a result, I'm behind with this adjustment. Fortunately or unfortunately, the extra time allows me to unpack the playing time implications in San Diego now that we know Nola will be there alongside Jason Castro.

Nola's projections are still underwater at -$1.0, but at this point, we have a clear reason to discard those projections. In particular, the Statcast data has improved enough, and the Padres saw enough evidence to ship out Taylor Trammell in exchange for Nola. That commitment alone doesn't give us a calculable change to Nola's projections, but it does give us some confidence that professional scouts observed similar skills to what the numbers are showing us.

From the performance side, Nola's exit velocity is up from 87.4 MPH in 2019 to 89.7 MPH this year. That has helped boost his Hard-Hit rate to 41.2%, good enough to put him in the 65^th percentile.

Nola's better than average exit velocity combines with his 38.8% Sweet-Spot rate to drive his .307 average and .313 xBA, as well as his .525 slugging and .515 xSLG. The HR production is probably exaggerated: he has only five doubles to go with his five home runs and only five barrels on the season. However, as those xStats indicate, the new Padre's performance is still close to his expected outcomes based on batted-ball data.

Take away a bit of the HR output, and Nola's's value falls off the $10 pace that he's's maintained so far this season. However, if he can keep squaring the ball up the way that he has been, it's's easy to see him finishing the year as an $8 player.  Given Nola's success this season, I'd like to move him that far up the list, but I have him projected as a $5.5 player for now. Part of that is tied to the Padres' acquisition of Jason Castro, who is a respectable catcher in his own right. It's not likely that Nola will maintain the same 83.8% plate share that he did in Seattle. The cost to acquire Nola should ensure he sees enough at-bats to be valuable, just not as valuable as he was in Seattle. Look for Nola to continue being a top-10 option at catcher, just not the second most valuable from here forward.

Jake Cronenworth (2B, Padres)

Among hitters with at least 100 PA, Cronenworth has the 9^th highest wRC+ this season, and his 20 R, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, and .356 average have made him a top-50 hitter to date. Those stats make it seem like Cronenworth's earned value should be higher than his $9.9 so far this season. However, he has about 30% fewer at-bats than most of the players around him. That lack of volume reduces the value of his batting average, which is currently his best category.

Cronenworth's ascent has been driven by a torrid streak in the second half of August when his barrel rate rose to 14.6%, and his hard-hit rate surged to 52.1%. The limited duration of Cronenworth's work makes it easy to discount it entirely as a small sample, and most of Cronenworth's numbers are still a ways off from stabilizing because he didn't become an everyday starter until August 10^th. Despite the small sample and lack of pedigree, Cronenworth's offensive prowess is not unprecedented for him. Last year, the San Diego second baseman slugged a 147 wRC+ in 88 games at AAA Durham in the International League.

At the moment, Cronenworth's .483 xwOBA is the third-best in baseball, behind Juan Soto and Corey Seager. The sample size is the only major concern here. The batted-ball numbers have sagged a bit over the last week, but Cronenworth still owns an excellent 47.6% hard-hit rate over that window, and of course, that week is an even smaller sample than the one we're trying to evaluate. Like Brandon Lowe earlier this season, we have the signs that Cronenworth is emerging as a full-blown all-star at a position that is sorely lacking star power at the moment. If the performance holds up, you can expect to see his projected value move accordingly.

Franmil Reyes (OF, Indians)

Sticking with our AJ Preller theme for today, we turn our attention to last year's big trade between the Indians and Padres. At the time, Reyes was a swing-first, walk-maybe-never slugger whose power was so obscene that it didn't matter that he was swinging and striking out at rates that would be unsustainable for most major leaguers.

As the season progressed and Reyes was traded to Cleveland, his plate approach showed notable progress. He still finished the year with a .249 average and a 28.5% strikeout rate, but he also crushed 37 home runs in 150 games and managed to push his walk rate up to a very respectable 8.6%.

This year, we've seen the same scorching-hot Reyes that lit up the league in May last year but with one clear-cut difference: he's chasing fewer pitches outside the zone. Reyes' Swing% has edged down from 51.6% to 49.0%, and his O-swing% has dropped from 31.1% to 28.2%. Those aren't monumental changes, but Reyes didn't need to be dramatically better to improve his outcomes, just marginally better so that he was getting a few more chances to maximize his talents.

For now at least, the improved plate discipline has allowed Reyes to average higher exit velocity than he did last year (94.4 MPH vs. 93.3 MPH). Additionally, Reyes' launch angle has crept up from 9.5° to 10.3°, so he's been lofting more hits as well.

Currently, the Indians' outfielder owns a .405 BABIP, so we're due for some unpleasant regression from that .323 batting average. Fantasy managers probably weren't banking on a high average though, so it shouldn't be a major concern, and Reyes' current $13.5 projection puts him in the same tier as sluggers like Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto, and Kyle Schwarber.

Keston Hiura (2B, Brewers)

Despite owning a .229 batting average, Hiura finds himself at the top of the second-base wasteland. As I wrote, there is surprising depth later on, but Hiura's ascent here is really more about survivorship rather than a flourishing sophomore season.

Hiura's increase in value is a unique situation: He owns a 95 wRC+ but has earned the fourth-highest value at second. He's hit nine HR, but only two doubles. His team is supposed to be an offensive powerhouse, but they're currently the third-worst offense in the league. Established, professional hitters like Yelich, Smoak, and Garcia have been missing in action, but Hiura has still accumulated 41 R+RBI.

Hiura's strikeout rate has remained too high for his approach, and there is good reason to believe that his batting average may not rebound this season. Consider that his .217 xBA is lower than his actual .229 BA. He has surprised with three stolen bases, but the simple reality is that even his managers are probably a bit disappointed by his overall performance.

At the core then is either a player whose idiosyncrasies defy our expectations and the norms of the game, or he's is due for some type of regression. Moreover, that regression might cripple his value or leave it basically the same. Consider the following possibilities:

Scenario 1) Hiura emerges as a new version of Dan Uggla: a defensively adequate, low-average, high-power player at a position that usually favors players with solid defense, speed, and better than average OBPs.

Scenario 2) Hiura's power regresses, his mediocre OBP and K-rate catch up with him, and his counting stats fall of the same cliff as his batting average.

Scenario 3) Hiura's's power regresses to something closer to his MiLB numbers, but so does the rest of his batted-ball profile. He becomes a .260 hitter who contributes 25-27 HR.

At the moment, the exit velocity and hard-hit rate don't suggest that Hiura will be able to maintain his power output, but his current 16.4° launch angle is identical to last year. That's a healthy number that will generate plenty of high drives capable of escaping the Miller Park fences, so the data is about as muddled as it could be. While there's evidence to suggest that Hiura's numbers will balance out and his value will hold steady, there's also real risk here. That Dan Uggla comp brought two other players to mind: Brian Dozier, which would be an excellent outcome, and Rougned Odor, which would be a lot worse.

Speed Round

Trea Turner (SS, Nationals): Turner has been crushing the ball lately, and he has somehow homered more than twice as often (7) as he has stolen bases (3). I do think there has been a philosophy change in Washington: the Nationals are 28^th out of 30 in steals after being 3rd last year. However, Turner has also been caught four times this season. Earlier in the season, I was confident that the steals would come, but the last two weeks of data suggest a definite change for Washington's speedster. It's hard to know exactly what is going on, and we don't have the same type of clubhouse information as last year, but it certainly looks like Turner's days of carrying the SB category could be over. Despite that unhappy news, Turner has actually been the most valuable hitter since August 15^th, so his managers are probably doing OK.

Evan Longoria (3B, Giants): Let's not understate the significance of the changes to San Francisco's stadium. When was the last time that the team had seven hitters with a wOBA over .350? However, Longoria also looks like a different hitter at the plate and on the stat line. At the plate, the third baseman has shown the type of collected poise that marked his time in Tampa Bay. Similarly, Longoria has boosted his batting average to .304 over his recent hot streak, and he is hitting the ball with far more authority than he did the last three seasons. In fact, his current 91.3 MPH EV is his best of the Statcast era. His 11.3% Barrel rate is just off his 11.5% from 2016 when he hit 36 HR.

Alec Bohm (3B, Phillies): Philly's prodigious youngster arrived with the reputation as a consistent hitter with useful power, and he has lived up to that billing. Fantasy managers may want a bit more power from the hot corner, but a .291 batting average and 18 R+RBI in 16 games is nothing to scoff at. Since he joined the big-league club on August 13^th, Bohm has been about a $6 player. There's little reason to believe he can't maintain that pace: his xBA (.308) and xSLG (.587) both outstrip his actual performance so far. Moreover, Bohm's ceiling and Philadelphia's extra games mean that he could well be a top-80 hitter for the rest of the season.