Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakouts or Fake Outs? Pitchers On The Rise (Week 6)

May 7, 2026

Are these pitchers fantasy baseball breakouts or fake outs? Dan analyzes advanced pitcher statistics and surging fantasy baseball SPs for Week 6 of 2026, including Janson Junk, Jack Kochanowicz, and Logan Henderson.

It's yet another edition of starting pitcher breakouts or fake outs, and this week we will be looking closely at three pitchers who are widely available in most fantasy baseball leagues. We have a Logan Henderson sighting in Milwaukee, a Jack Kochanowicz turnaround in Los Angeles, and a Janson Junk transformation in Miami to explore!

If you are new to this column, remember that the goal is to look at several pitchers each week who are showing signs of "breaking out." That term gets thrown a lot in our industry, but for me, it simply means they're flirting with the possibility of improving their baseline performance over a larger sample size.

So, while we typically look at younger pitchers as potential "breakouts," I won't limit myself to only youngsters. The concept of the breakout can be applied to pitchers of all experience levels, as we have seen numerous examples of pitchers improving significantly from season to season, even into their 30s. All rostership percentages are courtesy of Yahoo! Let's see which of these arms we can trust going forward, and also where to expect regression in the future!

Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers

• 26% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 25.1 IP, 1.78 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 33.8% K%, 8.1% BB%
• 2026 stats: 8 IP, 4.50 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 36.7% K%, 3.3% BB%
• 2026 Triple-A stats: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 35.6% K%, 12.3% BB%

Robby Snelling is going to fetch some massive FAAB bids this weekend, especially if he pitches well in his debut. But I'll be watching Logan Henderson's start against the Yankees on Sunday with great interest, and he could make a nice consolation prize if you miss out on Snelling.

The 24-year-old has a real chance to stick in the Milwaukee rotation this year, with Brandon Woodruff now dealing with what could be a long-term injury without a definite timetable to return. I included his stats from Triple-A this year, because we have such a small sample size of innings pitched for him in the major leagues - just 33.1 innings now across last year and this year.

Henderson has dealt with injuries of his own during his career, making him a bit of a risky long-term investment. But at this point, how many pitchers can actually say that they haven't had injury issues? We continue to see established arms drop like flies across the league, with Cole Ragans and Tyler Glasnow being the latest casualties just yesterday.

Back to Henderson, though. The stats have been incredibly impressive, both at the Triple-A and big league levels, over the last two years. I don't think there's much question as to whether or not he can be a good starting pitcher at the MLB level, but just how good? Because the upside he has flashed so far has been borderline elite!

Kid is so nasty https://t.co/q7qs6xAhRA pic.twitter.com/GZL3FyDAfm

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) May 3, 2026

Henderson has an interesting pitch mix. He's heavy on his four-seamer, which at 93 mph is below league average in velocity, but the pitch has over 17 inches of induced vertical break, helping it play up to hitters. He has a nasty changeup that he features to lefties that has excellent horizontal movement, with over 20 inches of arm-side run.

We can see here that his fastball not only has that good (lack of) vertical movement, but also over 11 inches of arm side run. He features a cutter and a slider to RHH, with the slider having so much horizontal movement this year that it really is behaving more like a sweeper.

The stuff itself grades out slightly above average (102 Stuff+ last year, 103 this year), but it's really Henderson's elite location (Location+ of 109 last year and 108 this year) that makes him so effective. The 12% BB% in the minors this year is an outlier; he was at 8% or lower at every stop in the minors or majors since 2024. It's only been seven MLB starts, but a career WHIP under 1.00 and 7% BB% across is a great sign for Henderson going forward.

When we check under the hood, the batted ball data has been solid, too, as hitters have not really been able to square him up. A 3.03 xERA validates his 2.43 ERA across those seven starts, and there are no funky BABIP discrepancies there either.

I don't think he's going to continue to be a 34% strikeout pitcher with only an 11% SwStr%. But he could still outpitch his swing-and-miss metrics with the good movement that he has on pitches and the pinpoint control, similar to some other guys we've seen, like Nolan McLean, who are consistently getting a ton of called strikes. I would probably peg him for a 25% K% over a larger sample of innings, which would certainly still be pretty nice if he can also keep those solid ratios going, too.

Verdict: Henderson has been outstanding in a small sample of MLB starts, but profiles more like a middle-of-the-rotation arm than a true ace. His control and elite movement on his pitches give him a very solid floor, but we'll need to see him perform at a high level for more than just 37 innings before we can get behind him as a true breakout.

That being said, he's easily one of the most attractive options on the waiver wire in this rostership range, so he should be snapped up everywhere, and I won't be surprised if he's over 50% rostered by next week, especially if he pitches well in his next start. With starting pitching being in demand with all these injuries, he'll fetch a solid FAAB bid in leagues where he's available, so prepare those bids accordingly!

Jack Kochanowicz, Los Angeles Angels

• 21% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 3 W, 111 IP, 6.81 ERA, 1.75WHIP, 14.1% K%, 11.3% BB%
• 2026 stats: 1 W, 41.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 17.1% K%, 12% BB%

Congratulations to Jack Kochanowicz, who has gone from an afterthought in fantasy baseball (and a pitcher I stacked against in DFS quite often last year) to a marginal fantasy asset so far in the 2026 season. The Angels' righty has cut his ERA in half and shaved a half point off his WHIP this season, turning in a QS in four of his seven starts.

The walk rate is still alarming, and a Ball% of 38.8% needs to improve if he's going to slow down on the free passes. But his ability to miss bats has clearly improved, as his SwStr% has jumped 1.5% and he's lowered his Z-Contact% a whopping 8% (it was 90% last year).

Kochanowicz ditched his sweeper and has really focused on his changeup and slider as his top two secondary pitches, with the 95-96 mph sinker being his mainstay. All three pitches have above-average vertical break, and everything is dropping breaking down in the zone, which has helped him post a career-high 61.7% GB%, the best mark of any qualified starter in MLB.

Notably, he raised his arm angle six degrees from last season, which should help account for the improved vertical break on all three of his main pitches. His fastball is relatively flat, but he only features it to lefties to keep them honest and not sitting on the sinker movement.

The slider has been really good this year, eliciting a 43% Whiff% and keeping righties at bay. His changeup has been solid to lefties, too, with a 31.6% Whiff%. When you feature the sinker, typically a very hittable pitch, the importance of having plus offspeed stuff is incredibly important, and it's clear that Kochanowicz has improved those offerings this season. He had a major home run problem last year, but has surrendered just two long balls this season, and has cut his barrel% down by 3%.

Now, the bad news is that he could still be pitching a bit over his head, as his SIERA sits at 4.63 and his xERA is 4.46. He has to widen that gap in his K-BB% ultimately, and being a sinker-heavy pitcher always leaves you open to a high BABIP as well. He's more likely to finish with a 4.00 ERA than a 3.00 ERA, and the walk rate is always going to be a thorn in the side of his WHIP.

Verdict: Kochanowicz has pitched well this year and improved tremendously. But his ceiling is likely still a back-of-the-rotation arm and a depth option in fantasy baseball. He's worth a look in deeper formats, but there are pitchers with less risk and more upside available out there, too.

Janson Junk, Miami Marlins

• 20% Rostered
• 2025 stats: 6 W, 110 IP, 4.17 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 17.2% K%, 2.9% BB%
• 2026 stats: 2 W, 38.1 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 17.4% K%, 5.2% BB%

Junk is one of those players whom I would consider over Kochanowicz, and both players are rostered in roughly the same number of leagues. The difference here is that Junk has established himself as an elite control pitcher who could bring a very solid floor to your ratios, even if he lacks the strikeout upside we are usually looking for in a starting pitcher.

Junk was an innings eater who had some appeal in WHIP last season, but has emerged as a solid asset in ERA this year as well, and is on pace to crush his win total, too.

6 scoreless for Janson Junk on Tuesday for the @Marlins, outdueling Shohei Ohtani to pick up a W against the Dodgers 🔥

Janson continues to bring the Junk ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/2HY3nJoCBa

— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) May 1, 2026

Junk's last name is quite appropriate, not because he's trash, but because he's evolved his pitch mix to the point where he's only throwing his four-seam fastball around 30% of the time, while mixing in six other pitches! I guess he's not a true junk-baller in that he's still leading with the four-seamer, but this year's really increased his changeup usage, while continuing to throw three different breaking balls (curveball, slider, and sweeper).

Similar to Logan Henderson, his fastball doesn't have overwhelming velocity at 94 mph, but he does have elite iVB on the pitch with 18.8 inches of implied vertical break. He has added nearly a full tick to the heater on the radar gun, which has helped raise the whiff% on the pitch, while also producing better batted ball results.

He's actually increased the vertical movement on his four-seamer, curveball, slider, sweeper, and changeup from last season. And while we aren't seeing a big uptick in strikeouts, what we are seeing is weaker contact. Every pitch has an xBA of .300 or lower this season, and his xERA of 3.35 is only a half run higher than his ERA, which is a beautiful thing. He's sitting at a career-low 4.2 barrel% this year as well.

His stuff is clearly improved. He was at a 96 Stuff+ rating the last two seasons and is now sitting at 102. The improved movement and velocity, paired with his elite control, have made him a very efficient and effective pitcher.

Verdict: We're looking at a 30-year-old pitcher who has really settled into his arsenal and is demonstrating tremendous command and repeatable results. More strikeouts would be great, but Junk has now shown the ability to produce very solid run prevention over his last 150 innings.

He's pitching in a great ballpark for pitchers when at home, and rarely gets blown up. Don't sleep on Junk, I think he might be the sneakiest SP add on the wire in your league right now!

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