X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Why You Need to be More Aggressive with Prospects This Year

The 2020 season brought two major changes for baseball's minor leagues: the cancellation of the MiLB season and MLB’s decision to cut 40 teams from its MiLB affiliates. That combination has reduced the player pool, increased the MiLB talent levels, and left us with a vacuum of information about prospect development. That last item means that we know less about player status and what to expect for 2021.

To really understand the situation, it might be best to think about this as 60 to 90 players who should have already been promoted by now. Add that to the number of traditional call-ups, and you’ll get a sense of how wild this year could be.

All told, this season will offer more opportunities to take advantage of emerging talents. In fact, unless baseball changes its rules about player control, we may never see another season like this one.

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Early Surprises

Case-in-point: This season, Akil Baddoo has gone from a relative unknown who was languishing in the Minnesota farm system to a Rule 5 selection who has invigorated the Detroit Tigers offense. To date, Baddoo has tallied a .333 average en route to a 2 HR, a triple, 2 R, 7 RBI, and a stolen base.

Or Kyle Isbel, who has taken over right field in Kansas City. Isbel enjoyed a stellar Spring Training where he amassed a .968 OPS with two SB and two HR. In his short time at Kansas City, Isbel has generated an average exit velocity of 95.8 MPH.

Or, Julian Merryweather, the Blue Jays new de factor closer. Merryweather pitched at high-A in 2019, and he threw 13 IP for the Blue Jays in 2020, when he had a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. This season he has closed two games and struck out five of the six batters he's faced. His Swinging-Strike ratio is 27.3%, and his chase rate is 55.6%.

Or, Yermin Mercedes, the White Sox DH who started his MLB career by going 8-for-8.  Mercedes currently owns a .333 ISO to go with his .556 BA in 6 games.

These players might not represent the peak of rookie value this season — small samples abound after all — but they are a sign of things to come. This season is going to see a surprising number of unfamiliar faces emerge.

 

How Did We Get Here?

If you felt that time stopped for some portion of 2020, you certainly weren’t the only one. That stagnation has bled into 2021’s Opening Day rosters, but ballplayer eyes, joints, and muscles age no matter what, regardless of shutdowns. True, players may have had time to heal and rejuvenate, but time is inexorable.

For the last three seasons, the age of the average player for the opening weekend has hovered around 28 years and five months. However, 2021 has diverged from that trend:

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021
Age 28.41 28.48 28.37 28.71

This season, that number jumped up to 28 years and eight months, and that's ignoring the fact that last season started three months later than usual, which means that this year's opening day players were almost six months older than last years. In the landscape of player age, it's a significant difference, especially since player development has gotten more aggressive over the last decade. While teams still engage in cost-controlling measures by holding down players who deserve to be promoted, most teams have worked to get younger and to give more opportunities to younger players.

If the player base is suddenly older than it has been, even when teams are generally looking to get younger, that means there are a number of veterans who have held their spots. That may be because of the endowment effect or because teams are trying to squeeze out one more year of team control, but the effect is the same, some older players should probably have been replaced, and their jobs are in question.

 

How many players are we talking about?

To be clear, it's not like those extra months are evenly distributed between all active players. What has really happened is that those three extra months of age are coming from a group of older players on the downswing of their careers. Sometimes that means players who are past their prime (28 and older). Sometimes it means players for whom injuries have accelerated their decline faster than the standard aging curve: a younger player whose career is curtailed by injury.

I did a rather unscientific selection of the first 300 players to enter a game over the last four years. There weren't clear breaks, so I excluded the remainders based on plate appearances and innings pitched. Here are the number of players age 29 or older:

Year 2018 2019 2020 2021
Players 29 or older 137 (102%) 136 (102%) 129 (96%) 146 (109%)

The opening games had 9% more players past their prime than the average of 2018-2020, and that doesn't account for older players who didn't receive playing time. To really understand the situation, it might be best to think about this as 60 to 90 players who should have been promoted already. Add that to the number of traditional call-ups, and you’ll get a sense of how wild this year could be.

 

Chaos is a Ladder

The combination of older rosters and the lack of information about prospect development will make call-ups even more dynamic and enigmatic than they've been in the past. As fantasy managers, we’re generally used to waiting until June to see impact prospects, but this season, we will see it early and often. Here’s a list of *some* of the other impact rookies we’ve seen this year:

Jonathan India (2B - Reds) Former top prospect who fell into disfavor after a mere 138 wRC+ at AA. India owns a .474 average through five games, and the Reds seem committed to letting him make second base his own.

Chas McCormick (OF, Astros) Precisely the type of player who likely would have debuted in 2020 if there had been a normal baseball season. McCormick is another Kyle Isbel-type,  offering some power and speed; he had 10 HR and 7 SB in 57 games at AAA in 2019. It's not clear how long he'll get playing time, but he's got an opportunity in front of him.

Luis Campusano (C, Padres) A highly regarded catching prospect whose best tool is his bat. He's off to a tough start (27 wRC+ in 8 PA). However, it's hard to imagine that the Padres would have him in the majors if they didn't believe he could contribute.

Jazz Chisholm (2B, Marlins) There are questions about whether Chisholm will hit, but he should provide baseball's scarcest commodity (steals), and he's striking the ball well: 50.0% Hard-Hit% and a 30.0% LD%.

Tanner Houck (P, Red Sox) Houck got the start in the Red Sox first turn through the rotation, and he struck out eight Orioles in that start. In 23 career innings, he owns a 34.8% K%

Ryan Weathers (P, Padres) Another prospect who skipped two grades to go from A-ball to the Majors. Weathers brings command and three above-average pitches. He's not in line to close, but he could become an interesting piece in Holds leagues.

Enoli Paredes (P, Astros) Paredes brings an impressive arsenal, including a 95 MPH fastball. There are definite control issues here, but the expectation is that Paredes will emerge as the Astros' primary setup man.

Casey Mize (P, Tigers) Despite a shaky 2020 campaign, the Tigers tapped Mize to join the 2021 rotation, and he rewarded them with four solid innings and four strikeouts against the Twins. He'll have to cut down on the walks, but the talent is there.

The list above doesn’t begin to capture the full range of rookies or what is still ahead of us. This season will offer a myriad of prospects ranging from the renowned to the obscure. For fantasy managers, the strategy is simple: Be ready to take a risk on unheralded players, especially as they show real potential after their debut.

 

Get Climbing 

Aggressive managers will profit this season more than any other in recent memory. Every year has pop-up all-stars, but this year should have a glut of players like Max Muncy, Zach Plesac, and Jeff McNeil — players whose success surprised the majority.

Some league setups may not allow managers to roster two or three of these types of players, so don’t go dumping A.J. Pollock because he’s off to a slow start. Figure out who is sitting in your bottom two or three slots and use that space to cycle through players and to place waiver claims on risky rookies, or post-hype prospects with upside. These are players who will have evolved in ways that we can’t predict.

Embracing the risk and unknown of these players will offer managers a competitive advantage over league mates who are slower to strike because a player is unfamiliar. Anything less puts a fantasy manager in the same position as those clubs sitting on mediocre veterans because they're familiar faces.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mitchell Marner4 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick In Victory
Alex Lyon4 hours ago

Earns Third Consecutive Victory
Jeremy Swayman4 hours ago

Posts Shutout Against Sharks
Zach Charbonnet4 hours ago

Pete Carroll Believes Zach Charbonnet Has A Bruised Knee
CeeDee Lamb4 hours ago

Has Another Huge Game In Week 13
Kareem Hunt7 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Matt McLain7 hours ago

Fully Healed
Shohei Ohtani7 hours ago

Wins Most Outstanding Designated Hitter Award
Chris Paul8 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated On Monday
Aaron Gordon8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Jamal Murray8 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday
Moses Moody8 hours ago

Shifts Into Starting Five
Grayson Allen8 hours ago

Removed From Injury Report
Devin Booker8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
LaMelo Ball8 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated In One Week
Treylon Burks9 hours ago

Puts In Full Practice Thursday
Noah Brown9 hours ago

Limited Again Thursday
Kenneth Walker III9 hours ago

Officially Inactive In Week 13
LeBron James10 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Kelly Olynyk10 hours ago

Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk Remain Questionable
Dorian Thompson-Robinson10 hours ago

Still In Concussion Protocol
Anthony Davis10 hours ago

Likely To Play Against Thunder
Amari Cooper10 hours ago

Back At Practice Thursday
Markelle Fultz10 hours ago

Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz Both Out Friday
Kelly Oubre10 hours ago

Jr. Aiming To Return Next Week
Jerry Jeudy10 hours ago

Marvin Mims Jr. Limited Thursday
Joel Embiid10 hours ago

Questionable Friday With Illness
Andrew Wiggins10 hours ago

Not Playing Against Clippers
Dallas Goedert10 hours ago

Trending In The Wrong Direction
Zach Hyman11 hours ago

Ready To Return On Thursday
Juuso Valimaki11 hours ago

Back For Coyotes On Thursday
Ilya Mikheyev11 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Dougie Hamilton11 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Aaron Rodgers11 hours ago

Takes The Day Off
Radko Gudas11 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Andrei Svechnikov11 hours ago

Expected Back On Thursday
Mark Kastelic12 hours ago

Ridly Greig Placed On Long-Term IR By Senators
Trey McBride12 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Thomas Chabot12 hours ago

Activated Off Injured Reserve, Could Play Friday
Gabriel Vilardi12 hours ago

Activated Off Injured Reserve, Could Play Thursday
De'Von Achane12 hours ago

Limited Again Thursday
Kent Johnson12 hours ago

Recalled From AHL
DET12 hours ago

Patrick Kane Hoping For Season Debut In 7-10 Days
Tee Higgins12 hours ago

Plans To Play Monday Night
Tim Hardaway12 hours ago

Jr. Questionable With Back Spasms
Mark Giordano12 hours ago

Week-To-Week With Broken Finger
Trey Murphy12 hours ago

III Could Make Season Debut Friday
Bojan Bogdanovic13 hours ago

Downgraded To Out Thursday
Devin Booker13 hours ago

Up In The Air For Friday
Rashid Shaheed13 hours ago

Out For Second Straight Day
Chris Olave13 hours ago

Participating In Practice Again Thursday
Diontae Johnson13 hours ago

Out Sick Thursday
Paolo Banchero13 hours ago

Probable With Sprained Ankle
Keenan Allen13 hours ago

Working Off To The Side Thursday
Chris Godwin13 hours ago

Pops Up On Injury Report
Anthony Edwards13 hours ago

No Shootaround For Anthony Edwards Thursday
Dylan Cease13 hours ago

Cardinals Interested In Dylan Cease
Demario Douglas13 hours ago

Absent From Thursday's Practice
Joaquim Silva14 hours ago

Looking To Return To The Win Column
Clay Guida14 hours ago

Set For 36th UFC Fight
Kelvin Gastelum14 hours ago

Returns To Welterweight
Tyler Glasnow14 hours ago

Cubs Have Held Trade Talks On Tyler Glasnow
Marquise Brown14 hours ago

Still Not Practicing Thursday
Sean Brady14 hours ago

Looking To Rebound After First Career Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo14 hours ago

Moving Up To Bantamweight
Rob Font14 hours ago

Set For Third Fight Of 2023
Jaden Schwartz17 hours ago

Lands On Injured Reserve
Robby Fabbri17 hours ago

Tallies Two Points Against Rangers
Nick Martinez17 hours ago

Agrees To Two-Year Deal With Reds
Alexis Lafrenière17 hours ago

Alexis Lafreniere Delivers Two Assists
Jackson Chourio18 hours ago

Brewers Expected To Complete Record-Breaking Deal
Mike Matheson18 hours ago

Posts Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Charlie Lindgren18 hours ago

Impresses With Win Over Kings
Shayne Gostisbehere18 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jalen Smith18 hours ago

Out On Thursday, Will Be Re-Evaluated Next Week
Joey Wendle1 day ago

Agrees With Mets
Devin Williams1 day ago

Wins NL Reliever Of The Year Award
Félix Bautista1 day ago

Felix Bautista Named AL Reliever Of The Year
Luis Severino1 day ago

Mets, Luis Severino Finalizing One-Year Deal
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Expected To Sign Before End Of Winter Meetings
Dylan Cease1 day ago

Trade Talks For Dylan Cease Have Intensified
Randy Arozarena2 days ago

Being Shopped By Rays
Bo Bichette2 days ago

Likely Staying Put
Emilio Pagán2 days ago

Emilio Pagan Agrees To Two-Year Pact With Reds
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Dodgers "Among Most Aggressive" Teams For Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto "Above All Other Options" For Giants
Juan Soto2 days ago

"Almost Certain To Be Traded"
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Earns NL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Liam Hendriks2 days ago

Earns AL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Jackson Chourio2 days ago

Brewers Discussing Deal With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Ahmad Sauce Gardner - Fantasy Football

Week 13 IDP Start Em, Sit Em - Streamers and Fades for Fantasy Football Defensive Players

Perspective means a lot in sports, as in many areas of life. An example of this would be Shaquille Leonard. We mention him here frequently because he remains a legend in many IDP circles. Even this year he's been a pretty productive tackler, despite limited snaps and conflicts with his team/coaching staff. So, obviously a... Read More


Kenneth Walker III - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 13 (Thursday Updates): Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne, Chris Olave, De'Von Achane, Tee Higgins, and more

With Week 13 ready to get underway with the Cowboys vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football, fantasy managers are busy tracking injuries to their key fantasy studs. We have the latest notable injury updates as of Thursday, November 30, 2023. Fantasy football assets such as Kenneth Walker III, Travis Etienne, Chris Olave, and more have... Read More


Adam Thielen - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

The King's Week 13 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Scott "The King" Engel issues his full Week 13 lineup rankings in PPR, Half-PPR, and Standard formats. He also includes insights on key players at each position, with chunks of relevant statistical indicators. Regular starting options are also included in the statistical highlights to show how well your best players might be performing. Much of... Read More


Aaron Donald - Fantasy Football Rankings, IDP Draft Sleepers, Defense (DST)

Week 13 Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: Buccaneers DST, Chargers DST, Jaguars DST, Falcons DST, Rams DST

RotoBallers, Week 13 has arrived, and it's time to focus on setting those winning lineups. There are six teams on a bye, so there will be few options to stream this week. The Bears, Vikings, Bills, Ravens, Giants, and Raiders are off this week. For fantasy managers singing the bye week blues, we've got you... Read More


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings: Where Do All 32 NFL Teams Stand?

As we head into the fourth month of the NFL season, we are starting to get a better sense of who these 32 teams are. Injuries, inefficiencies, and mega-popstar distractions have impacted NFL teams in different ways through the league's first twelve weeks. On the other hand, there have been some major positive surprises and... Read More


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Seahawks vs. Cowboys TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, more

Thursday Night Football for Week 13 will be a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Dallas Cowboys are winners of five of their last six games, and those five wins have come with an average margin of victory of 23.2 points. The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, have lost three of... Read More


Kyler Murray - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 13: Kyler Murray, Joe Mixon, and Drake London

Week 13 of the fantasy football season is underway and while we may have drafted certain players at a premium, it is okay to consider benching them despite their name value. We often hear the phrase "start your studs" and it is a tried and true method, especially earlier in the season. When injuries, tough... Read More


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Sneaky Starts, Pivot Plays, and Post-Waiver Pickups for Week 13 - Russell Wilson, Tyler Allgeier, Juwan Johnson, Jayden Reed, and More!

The byes are back. Wasn’t last week so nice -- where all you had to worry about was injuries? This week is a killer not just with six teams on bye, but with the high-quality fantasy options that the teams give us. You will not be able to use your Bills, Bears, Giants, Ravens, Raiders,... Read More


jaylen waddle fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 13 (2023)

Welcome to Week 13 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive,... Read More


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Rest of Season Half-PPR Rankings: Fantasy Football Top 200 for Week 13

December approaches and the fantasy football playoffs are on the horizon. Prepare for the championship push as best you can with our Week 13 fantasy football half-PPR rankings for the rest of 2023, as of November 30. Check where key players shifted, such as Bijan Robinson, Cooper Kupp, Zack Moss, and more. These half-PPR fantasy... Read More


Jessie Bates Atlanta Falcons Defense - Fantasy Football DST, Defense Streamers, Waiver Wire IDP

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 13, 14, 15, 16) - Defense Streamers and Starts

If you stream defenses in fantasy football, you have come to the right place. This article will look at defenses to target in Week 13 and beyond. Interesting to note that Week 15 and Week 16 will be featured in the list below, which is the playoffs for most fantasy leagues. So, if you have... Read More


Kyren Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Updated Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

      Fantasy Football Rankings by NFL Position ALL - QB - RB - WR - TE - DEF Above you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings, tiers, player news and stats for your 2023 fantasy football leagues. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's fantasy football rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Fantasy Football... Read More


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 13

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters -- both at the onset of your drafts and as you manage... Read More