First Base Dynasty Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

January 11, 2022

First base (1B) preseason rankings for dynasty fantasy baseball leagues ahead of the 2022 season. Pierre Camus breaks down his ranks based on preseason value and projections.

It's not quite draft season for fantasy baseball but that matters little in dynasty. Cut/hold decisions are being made in the following weeks leading up to the annual redraft or auction so it's important to assess the relative value of each player on your roster. As it turns out, I've recently updated my dynasty fantasy baseball rankings with a top 360 overall list and will be evaluating an even deeper list of players at each individual position with analysis. We've already covered outfielders, which you can read here.

All of the players listed have first base eligibility, although several will be used at shallower positions in fantasy leagues. Deciding whether to value a young, unproven prospect above a Major League veteran is a debate as old as baseball itself. One thing is for certain, there is no shortage of talent here.

Let's dive into the 1B fantasy baseball dynasty rankings as we make a collective New Year's wish for a swift end to the lockout and a Major League season that begins on time.

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Dynasty First Base Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Preseason Thoughts

Matt Olson (3) went from chump to champ in a hurry. In 2020, he slashed .195/.310/.424 with a career-worst 31.4% strikeout rate. Health was certainly not the issue, as he played in all 60 games. The power was there with 14 home runs but the plate discipline was awful. Olson bounced back in a big way in 2021, slashing .271/.371/.540 and finishing 12th in OPS. Oddly, he actually saw his xWOBACON decline for the second straight year in 2021 and his .507 xSLG, while excellent, is a far cry from his 2019 mark of .568. All told, Olson cemented himself as an elite first baseman in his age-27 season and could easily repeat the feat, if not improve.

Ryan Mountcastle (7) had an uneven first half to his rookie season but ended up with 33 HR due to a strong combined August and September. He handled fastballs with relative ease but will need to improve his .160 AVG on offspeed stuff. As with any young slugger, he also needs to chase less in order to cut down his strikeout rate. Driving in 89 runs in Baltimore is no small feat though, so there's more to be encouraged about than concerned. A nice core is developing in the middle of that lineup with Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, and Trey Mancini following up breakout player Cedric Mullins at the leadoff spot. Mountcastle should settle in as a .280 hitter eventually and will be a solid source of counting stats for years to come.

I may be irrationally high on Alex Kirilloff (9) coming off wrist surgery and competing for playing time on a rebuilding Twins team but there's a reason. As Eric Samulski pointed out recently when predicting a power spike in 2022, Kirilloff had a barrel rate in the 87th percentile after increasing his launch angle. The Twins were big sellers at last year's deadline so the loss of Nelson Cruz opened up a spot for Kirilloff to DH every day. He's a liability in the outfield but plays a competent first base so he should get enough time there to retain 1B eligibility this year.

Andrew Vaughn (13) played just enough first base (15 games) as a rookie to keep his corner infield status but will mostly serve as an outfielder or designated hitter in 2022. RosterResource has him pegged to platoon with Gavin Sheets at DH but it's hard to imagine that the former third overall pick won't get first crack at winning the job outright this spring. It was mostly a disappointing debut, as he hit .235 and drove in 48 runs over 417 at-bats despite being in one of the best offenses in the AL. The plate discipline was solid, however, with a 10% swinging-strike rate below the league average of 11.3% and his exit velocity ranked high. Vaughn has long been regarded for his hit tool over his power so the strides should come. If anything, his post-hype status makes him a buy-low candidate heading into this season.

Josh Bell (24) has yet to replicate his 2019 All-Star level of production but he fared much better than in his miserable 2020. A move out of Pittsburgh is a positive for any player and it helped Bell get to a batting line that was very close to his 2017 season. He saw his OPS rise by .131 in the second half of the season. He wound up with 27 HR, 88 RBI, 75 R, and a .261 average. His improvement down the stretch led to a career-best 52% hard-hit rate and superb expected stats across the board (sprint speed excluded, of course).

The Nats have lost key pieces in their lineup, namely Trea Turner, but Bell is in line to put up solid power numbers once again. Although he's technically past his prime, don't count out an uptick in value.

Deeper Options to Watch

Bobby Bradley (41) does one thing really well - clear the fences. He went deep 16 times in less than half a season's worth of plate appearances with a home run every 15.3 at-bats, quite a bit higher than the MLB average of 25.8 AB/HR. As expected, he's got a lot of swing-and-miss in his profile and only hit .208 as a rookie. The Guardians aren't expected to splurge once free agency opens back up so the path to regular playing time is there.

Seth Beer (60) is another power bat on a rebuilding offense but his shot at regular ABs isn't as clear. He is coming off late-season shoulder surgery which could affect his start to the 2022 season. His raw power isn't as great as Bradley but he's got a track record of hitting for average throughout the minors. He's a name to watch in the second half of 2022.

Sherten Apostel (65) similarly underwent surgery last September but to address an issue with knee cartilage. This is far less concerning and shouldn't affect his swing. He'll likely need another year of seasoning and could be blocked at first if Nate Lowe stakes his claim to the everyday job. Apostel has played some third base too but will have to beat out Josh Jung at that corner spot. If the Rangers manage to contend as they seem keen on doing given the money they've already spent this offseason, Apostel could be deemed expendable.

If it seems like the Twins have a glut of young corner infield/outfield types, it's because they do. We already looked at Kirilloff but there's also Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, and Aaron Sabato (80). Taken in the first round of the 2020 draft, Sabato clubbed 19 HR in 361 AB across the low minors but shuffled to a .202 average. His whopping 19.8% BB% is a great sign and mostly offsets his 32% K% given his power. He's a solid stash for deeper leagues that could supplant Miguel Sano in another year or two.

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