2018 Third Base - Early Points League Rankings and Tiers

by Bill Dubiel 1/25/18 9:09 AM Follow Bill

If you play in a head-t0-head points league, or season long format, you already know how difficult it can be to find fantasy analysis tailored to the format. Not only are the traditional rotisserie and head-to-head arrangements more popular, but the very nature of points leagues makes them difficult to cover in a general sense because they carry significantly more variance in terms of settings.

Niche audience or no, there are still plenty of folks out there who love the format, and y’all deserve help from the experts just as much as those who stick to roto or H2H. That’s why we’re excited to unveil the first round of RotoBaller’s 2018 fantasy baseball points league rankings for third base and the month of January.

This round of rankings comes to you courtesy of Nick Mariano, Chris Zolli, Kyle Richardson, and yours truly.

Editor's Note: Be sure to also check out more of our staff's initial 2018 fantasy baseball rankings and analysis columns for other formats including mixed leagues, dynasty leagues, 2018 prospects and more.

2018 Fantasy Baseball Points League Rankings: Third Base (January)

Ranking	Tier	Player Name	Pos	Nick	Bill	Chris	Kyle R.
1	1	Nolan Arenado	3B	5	3	6	3
2	1	Kris Bryant	3B/OF	16	7	8	5
3	1	Manny Machado	3B	21	17	15	15
4	1	Freddie Freeman	1B/3B	19	27	20	21
5	2	Jose Ramirez	2B/3B	26	22	28	26
6	2	Josh Donaldson	3B	40	13	23	27
7	2	Alex Bregman	3B/SS	81	44	36	45
8	2	Anthony Rendon	3B	57	52	58	49
9	3	Justin Turner	3B	56	55	53	54
10	3	Jake Lamb	3B	102	59	79	76
11	3	Miguel Sano	3B	122	66	63	77
12	3	Travis Shaw	3B	75	83	99	82
13	3	Adrian Beltre	3B	80	93	90	90
14	3	Mike Moustakas	3B	118	85	84	99
15	3	Matt Carpenter	1B/2B/3B	119	102	104	97
16	4	Kyle Seager	3B	95	126	113	109
17	4	Rafael Devers	3B	139	132	123	126
18	4	Nick Castellanos	3B	152	122	119	#N/A
19	4	Evan Longoria	3B	117	138	168	134
20	4	Scooter Gennett	2B/3B/OF	214	143	178	168
21	4	Eduardo Nunez	SS/3B/2B/OF	257	147	155	177
22	4	Joey Gallo	3B/1B/OF	249	165	152	181
23	4	Eugenio Suarez	3B	198	186	218	174
24	4	Marwin Gonzalez	1B/2B/3B/SS/OF	273	182	170	213
25	4	Todd Frazier	3B	111	259	259	215
26	5	Ryon Healy	3B/1B	226	217	212	226
27	5	Maikel Franco	3B	239	261	257	234
28	5	Jeimer Candelario	3B	250	269	276	252
29	5	Logan Forsythe	2B/3B	133	348	341	278
30	5	Matt Chapman	3B	#N/A	266	299	284
31	5	Jose Reyes	2B/SS/3B	#N/A	301	307	303
32	5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SS/2B/3B	298	308	311	304
33	5	Jedd Gyorko	1B/3B	#N/A	322	322	324
34	5	Nick Senzel	3B	#N/A	338	336	336
35	6	Hernan Perez	2B/3B/OF	409	347	338	358
36	6	Adonis Garcia	3B	#N/A	358	388	378
37	6	David Freese	1B/3B	#N/A	376	411	397
38	6	Matt Duffy	SS/3B	#N/A	390	432	421
39	6	Chase Headley	3B	#N/A	400	445	434
40	6	Danny Valencia	1B/3B/OF	#N/A	401	447	436
41	6	Brandon Drury	3B/OF	404	#N/A	449	438

Tier 1

Freddie Freeman is a fresh face at this position, and apparently I'm lowest on him of the group. It's easy to see why they're believers--Freeman is very much in his prime at just 27, and he's coming off back-to-back outstanding seasons. He's managed a .400 OBP in each of his last two seasons (although last year was shortened by injury) and has combined the improved contact with a power boost. His .280 ISO last year marked a career high. Wait... did I just talk myself into ranking Freeman higher in February?

Tier 2

On the flip side, I am wayyyy higher on the Bringer of Rain than my colleagues. Josh Donaldson had what most would consider a down year--a modest 33 homers and 78 RBI. Sure, that projects to a 47-homer, 111-RBI pace, but who's counting...oh yeah, I am. I'm counting. Donaldson is still just 32 and, as of this writing, will play his home games in the Rogers Centre. I have him pegged for a huge bounce-back this season, and while my top-13 ranking might be a little aggressive I think he's a lock for top-25.

Tier 3

I'm very curious what downside my colleagues see with Jake Lamb. He has now posted 29 homers and 91 RBI in two straight seasons, and will once again be hitting behind Paul Goldschmidt in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. There is nothing jumping out at me statistically as a red flag for regression, either. His BABIP from the last two seasons is perfectly sustainable, and the improvements he made in walk-rate and K-rate are minor enough for me to think that even if he regresses to his career average it won't do any real damage to his stat line. The very obvious downside is Lamb's annual tank-fest in the second half. Early on here, I'm betting on the 27-year-old to fix what ails him in 2018 and sustain solid production for most of the year.

Tier 4

I am lowest on Kyle Seager, although not by much, and ultimately my ranking comes down to his lack of upside. Seager will definitely produce as a startable third baseman in any format, but I don't see top-10 potential there. While there are certainly other factors at play here, the stat that jumps off the page for me was his plummeting line drive percentage. In 2017, 51.6% of his batted balls were fly balls (compared to a 43.6% career average), and in Safeco that's not going to do you many favors. I'll be interested to see if it's a trend that continues or if that was a one-off season, but either way I'm down on Seager headed into 2018.

Tier 5 and Tier 6

Extremely curious what Nick sees in Logan Forsythe. While I certainly think he's better than the atrocious line we saw out of him last year (.224, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 56 R), I view his 2016 season as the true peak of his potential (.264, 20 HR, 52 RBI, 76 R). I'm excited to see what happens with Matt Duffy in 2018. The former Giant was out for all of 2017 recovering from a surgeries on his Achilles tendon, but he should be 100% coming into 2018 with the Rays. With Evan Longoria now in San Francisco, the starting third base job is Duffy's to lose, and if he can regain any of the form from his excellent 2015 season he could make some noise in points leagues.