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The top main-slate daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 31, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With games scattered throughout the day, we're down to a six-game DraftKings main slate and a seven-game FanDuel main slate, which includes the Padres versus Marlins game. Today's matchups feature no excess of top-line pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/31/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:07 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. MIN ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD)
Wednesday's main slate is very shallow on pitching options. Among the selections, Hunter Brown gives me the most confidence. The rookie sports a strong 3.12 ERA through 10 starts, and the underlying numbers suggest his success is deserved. Brown carries a respectable 3.09 xFIP, .306 xwOBA, and .369 xSLG, amounting to a 3.80 xERA.
Altogether, this makes his price tag seem a bit too high today, but there's ceiling potential. Brown's best attribute is his 28.1% strikeout rate. That is particularly advantageous in this matchup.
Minnesota's offense is decent. They score 4.5 runs per game, carrying a middling .736 OPS against right-handed pitching, alongside a .182 ISO and 106 wRC+. The Twins are capable of going off, but on this slate, the risk is worthwhile. Minnesota strikes out at a 26.2% rate against right-handed pitchers, the second-highest mark in the majors. Mix that strikeout vulnerability with a pitcher generating above-average strikeout output, and the path to success is paved.
I won't go as far as to claim that Brown is safe in this spot, but he is the first pitcher I'd want to roster today. The pitching options are thin on this slate, and this is the closest we get to a pitcher with a floor.
Clarke Schmidt, NYY vs. SEA ($7,700 DK, $7,700 FD)
I'm just as surprised to see Clarke Schmidt's name here as you are. We prefaced that there's no great pitching on this slate, so it's time to get creative with our SP2. Schmidt sports a weak 5.58 ERA and 4.25 FIP through 11 appearances. The advanced numbers suggest some positive regression is due, translating to a 4.93 xERA and 3.96 xFIP, but I'll understand if those numbers are still failing to reassure. The real opportunity with Schmidt is found in his strong 25.3% strikeout rate. It's not a lot, but it's something tangible to grasp onto.
The Mariners' offense is solid enough, scoring 4.5 runs per game on the season. They carry a below-average .704 OPS against right-handed pitching, including a .155 ISO and 102 wRC+. The best part is that Seattle strikes out at a gratuitous 25.1% rate, the fourth-highest in the majors. Featuring Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic, they're far from a deadbeat offense. However, Seattle's relative struggle with right-handed pitching is enough to make Schmidt an appealing play today.
Schmidt is far from a roster lock, though it's worth noting that he's been pitching better of late. He's surrendered two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings, scoring at least 13 DK points in all but one of those appearances. The lack of pitching options combined with affordable pricing and strikeout upside is enough for me to take a chance on Schmidt today.
Also consider: George Kirby, James Paxton, Blake Snell (FD only)
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Pete Alonso – 1B, NYM vs. Aaron Nola ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)
Alonso leads the majors with 20 home runs this season, so this isn't exactly a creative suggestion. He sports a phenomenal .627 xSLG, alongside a similarly impressive .422 xwOBA, 90.9 mph average exit velocity, and 18.7% barrel rate. Of his many long balls, 14 have come against right-handed pitching, including a .546 slugging percentage and .319 ISO.
Aaron Nola has a reputation for being a stud, but that hasn't been the case in 2023. He carries a weak .433 xSLG, 24.2% whiff rate, and a 9% barrel rate, contributing to a bloated 4.59 ERA. The struggles have been particularly bad against right-handed hitters, who are slugging .463 against Nola with nine home runs this season. Pete Alonso has 43 career at-bats opposite Nola, resulting in five home runs and a whopping 1.159 OPS.
Spencer Steer – 1B/3B, CIN vs. James Paxton ($3,800 DK, $3,200 FD)
We're catching Steer on something of a heater. He's hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games, posting seven multi-hit performances and two home runs in that span. Altogether, Steer's slash line is up to .288/.353/.485 with seven home runs, a pair of triples, and 14 doubles. He's excelling against pitchers of all handedness, but for what it's worth, Steer is slugging .538 alongside a .250 ISO against southpaws this season.
James Paxton has hardly pitched at all since 2020 due to injury, but the power problem that existed then has already reared its head. Through three starts this season, Paxton owns a 5.55 xERA, including a .505 xSLG, 91.7 mph average exit velocity, and 11.4% barrel rate. It's a small sample size, but he's yet to make it through an outing without allowing at least one long ball, and Steer is as capable as any Reds bat to take advantage.
Elehuris Montero – 3B, COL vs. Tommy Henry ($2,500 DK, $2,200 FD)
Navigating into the punt-price territory, Elehuris Montero is worth a look. He was recently recalled from the minors in the absence of Charlie Blackmon. Montero has been tearing up Triple-A this season, posting a .383/.435/.765 slash line with an astonishing 13 home runs over 28 games. He struggled to produce in the big leagues earlier this season, but I'm more than willing to roll with Montero's momentum at this price.
Tommy Henry is hardly a pitcher to avoid in this spot. He carries a .438 xSLG, .336 xwOBA, and a 9.1% barrel rate. He's been tagged harder by left-handed pitchers during his short MLB career, but righties have found success as well. There's nothing about Henry's profile that deters me from wanting to take a chance on a near-minimum-price Montero.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez– OF, HOU vs. Louie Varland ($6,000 DK, $4,400 FD)
Alvarez is enjoying a predictably dominant campaign. He brings a .284/.397/.598 slash line, including 14 home runs and a 171 wRC+. Alvarez ranks in the 95th percentile or better with each of his .615 xSLG, .430 xwOBA, 54.8% hard-hit rate, and 19.8% barrel rate. We could continue fawning over his many impressive metrics, but you get the point.
Louie Varland has some prospect hype, but that has not translated into success at the major-league level. He sports a 5.16 xERA alongside similarly ugly numbers, like a .351 xwOBA, .270 xBA, .513 xSLG, 43.6% hard-hit rate, and a 12.9% barrel rate. The Astros, in general, look fantastic today, and Alvarez is the preferred bat to roster if you can manage the price.
Jarred Kelenic – OF, SEA vs. Clarke Schmidt ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD)
If you don't end up rostering Clarke Schmidt, then it's not a bad idea to target a left-handed bat against him. Lefties are slugging .616 against Schmidt, including a .441 wOBA and five home runs. I'm not backtracking on my SP2 recommendation, but Schmidt has a very obvious vulnerability here.
2023 has been a breakout campaign for Jarred Kelenic. He's slashing .283/.340/.524 for the season with 10 home runs, 14 doubles, and a triple. The success includes very encouraging underlying metrics, such as a .492 xSLG, .350 xwOBA, .272 xBA, 91.6 mph average exit velocity, and a 49.2% hard-hit rate. I'll be rolling out Clarke Schmidt, but Kelenic looks great here.
Brandon Marsh – OF, PHI vs. Carlos Carrasco ($2,800 DK, $2,800 FD)
Marsh has cooled off since the torrid April he posted, but fortunately, so has his price. He still carries a strong .857 OPS overall, with five home runs, eight doubles, and four triples. That includes an impressive 92.8 mph average exit velocity and a 48.5% hard-hit rate. Marsh doesn't represent the most lethal bat in the Phillies' lineup, though he is the best bang-for-buck value.
Carlos Carrasco is having a brutal season. He owns a 5.73 xERA, consisting of a .486 xSLG, .367 xwOBA, 89.8 mph average exit velocity, and a 10.8% barrel rate. Remarkably, Carrasco's strikeout rate has dropped to an ineffective 13.3% rate, down from 23.6% in 2022 and a 26.9% career average. He's not missing bats or barrels, and he doesn't induce weak contact. Targeting Carrasco is a good idea these days.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Astros vs. Louie Varland
Louie Varland's struggles were highlighted above. He brings a 5.16 xERA, made up of an awful .513 xSLG, 12.9% barrel rate, .351 xwOBA, .270 xBA, 90.5 mph average exit velocity, and a 43.6% hard-hit rate. Varland was a somewhat heralded prospect, so better days are likely ahead. But for now, he's a pitcher who has yet to figure out major-league hitting. He struggles against right-handed and left-handed hitters, so nobody in the Houston lineup is out of bounds here.
The Astros score a middling 4.5 runs per game for the campaign, but their early-season struggles deceive the talent level. Jose Altuve is finally back in the lineup, while Yordan Alvarez is red-hot, and Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, and Alex Bregman are always capable of slate-breaking performances. It's a batting order that is loaded with firepower, and they should tee off on Louie Varland today.
Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena
Boston Red Sox vs. Luke Weaver
Luke Weaver is having a tough season, carrying a 5.45 ERA and 5.29 FIP through seven starts. While some of his advanced stats suggest he is due for some positive regression, the results fall in line with Weaver's career 4.84 ERA. He gets hit hard, and that's nothing new. Weaver sports a 44% hard-hit rate, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, .455 xSLG, and 12.9% barrel rate. I don't like his chances in this matchup.
The Red Sox have ranked among the league's hottest offenses this season. They score 5.2 runs per game, including a .757 OPS against right-handed pitching with a .172 ISO. Boston's bats offer a nice pricing range, encompassing premium roster spots like Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida to midrange and cheaper options like Justin Turner or Triston Casas.
Favorite Plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner, Jarren Duran
Also Consider: Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies
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