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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 2 of the bowl games (12/27/22-1/2/23). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
Now we get into the meat of bowl season. Starting today, we have at least three bowl games per day until January 2, not counting Sunday because the NFL insists the collegiates wait their turn. We're closing 2022 with a bang!
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. It was a trying season. My nemesis Eastern Michigan made a bowl (yikes!), but the other real thorn in my side (Arizona) did not. I'm here for redemption. Let's get it!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Bowl Week 2 (December 27 - January 2)
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern(-4.5) vs. Buffalo at Montgomery, AL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kyle Vantrease transferred from Buffalo to Georgia Southern over the winter last year. He has had quite a season in Statesboro, and should finish it off here with a win against his former team. Give me the Eagles.
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: Memphis(-7.5) vs. Utah State at Dallas, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels high. Cooper Legas is back for the Aggies and Memphis is still inconsistent at best on offense. I don't feel like either team wins this by more than a touchdown.
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina(-7.5) at Birmingham, AL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one also feels high. Grayson McCall is still leading the Chanticleers and Sam Pinckney is finally the receiver they thought they were getting. I don't know that CCU wins outright, but I doubt they lose by more than a touchdown.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin(-3.5) vs. Oklahoma State at Phoenix, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Spencer Sanders and a host of other Cowboys have bolted Stillwater already. Graham Mertz left Wisconsin with almost no experience at quarterback as well. The difference is that the Badgers have three good running backs led by Braelon Allen that are all going to play in this game. This feels rather low to me. Wisconsin wins BIG!
Military Bowl: Central Florida vs. Duke(-3.5) at Annapolis, MD
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm still on the fence about this one. UCF fell apart after a strong start. John Rhys Plumlee may not even be the starter anymore. There's just too much fluctuation within the UCF offense and Duke's defense got better as the season went along. I didn't give Riley Leonard enough credit for the strides he made this year. I have to go with Duke this close to home for them.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Kansas vs. Arkansas(-2.5) at Memphis, TN
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I still don't really know what to do with this one. K.J. Jefferson has already stated that he is returning to Fayetteville next year, so the Hogs will be at full strength for the first time since the beginning of October. Whenever Kansas has this long to prepare, they are dangerous. They are very well coached even if they aren't as talented as the team on the other side. I'm going with Arkansas, but I don't really trust it. Kansas is going to put up a fight.
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl: (15)Oregon(-14.5) vs. North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's a lot going on around this game. Drake Maye has spent the last couple of weeks fighting off rumors that he was offered $5 million to transfer out of Chapel Hill. Bo Nix is healthy and will play for Oregon, but he hasn't yet decided if he is coming back to Eugene. I have a feeling that a lot of it rides on this game. If Nix comes out and goes nuts on a suspect North Carolina defense, he'll have a hard time coming up with a better swan song for his college career. If the Ducks lose this game, he might come back considering Oregon was a Pac-12 favorite until he got hurt. As far as this game goes, I'm not a believer in North Carolina's defense at all, but this feels high. Give me Carolina to keep it relatively close, but I don't see them winning.
TaxAct Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Mississippi(-3.5) at Houston, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Even though Texas Tech plays in Texas, this game is closer for Ole Miss fans travelling to the game. The Red Raiders are a spunky team and a whole lot of fun to watch. That said, how are they going to stop Quinshon Judkins? I think Tech puts up a fight and hangs around, but I'm still taking Ole Miss for this small of a spread.
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Syracuse vs. Minnesota(-9.5) at Bronx, NY
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Both are cold-weather teams, but one of them actually plays outside in said cold weather. That's a huge advantage for the Gophers and so is Mohamed Ibrahim. Ibrahim will finish his college career here, sitting just 57 yards shy of Darrell Thompson's program record for rushing yards. I think Mo goes out with a bang and shows that he deserves to be a feature back in the NFL. Give me the Gophers.
Cheez-It Bowl: (13)Florida State(-9.5) vs. Oklahoma at Orlando, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is their first meeting since the 2000 National Championship game. One team has Jordan Travis and a whole horde of NFL prospects on the roster. The other has UCF outcast Dillon Gabriel and a whole horde of NFL prospects sitting out the game. Oh, and this is practically a home game for the Seminoles. It would take a miracle for Oklahoma to hang around in this one. However, they were given a month to prepare for this game. Stranger things have happened. I'm going with Florida State, but I'm not going heavily on this one. I have a feeling Oklahoma might show up.
Valero Alamo Bowl: (12)Washington vs. (20)Texas(-3.5) at San Antonio, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Longhorns got a great draw playing less than 90 minutes from campus, but they'll need every advantage they can get to beat Michael Penix. Bijan Robinson is a great talent, but his status doesn't really affect how I feel about this game. Texas has enough good backs to fill in for Robinson. What they can't overcome is spotty lapses on defense and errors from a young quarterback. Give me Washington outright.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Maryland(-1.5) vs. (23)North Carolina State at Charlotte, NC
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little surprised that Maryland is favored considering how their season went. Taulia Tagovailoa has loads of talent, but little help around him besides Roman Hemby. The Pack lose Devin Leary to the transfer portal, but he wasn't going to play in this game anyway. I'm still leaning towards Maryland, but this is going to be a tough one.
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. (18)UCLA(-5.5) at El Paso, TX
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a losable game for UCLA and generally, they don't cover in those instances. Kedon Slovis is gone, but remember what Nick Patti did last year in a more stressful bowl game? I still like Pitt outright. UPDATE: Changing this pick to UCLA because Israel Abanikanda is heading for the draft and UCLA's big three (DTR, Charbonnet, and Jake Bobo) are all playing. Raising the bet to four points on UCLA.
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: (21)Notre Dame(-2.5) vs. (19)South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I like the fact that bettors are still slow to lay cash on the Cocks even after they beat top-ten programs in back-to-back weeks for the first time in school history. No, I don't think Spencer Rattler is leaving again. Things are just getting interesting in Columbia. He might go pro if he has another big game, but the Cocks can worry about that when the time comes. For now, they'll have to settle for ANOTHER outright win in a game in which they are dogs.
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl: Ohio(-1.5) vs. Wyoming at Tucson, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Somehow Barstool not only got the rights for the naming of this bowl, but they get to carry it too. That's unfortunate because it could be a sneaky-good game. I'm a believer in Kurtis Rourke and Sieh Bangura even against a stingy Wyoming defense. That offense is a disaster. Give me Ohio.
Capital One Orange Bowl: (6)Tennessee vs. (7)Clemson(-4.5) at Miami, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
For once the Orange Bowl lives up to its name. It is a true Orange Bowl this year. One Orange lost their star quarterback in a loss to South Carolina that knocked them out of the playoff (a playoff game in the regular season...why ruin that??). The other had a coach's stubborness cost them a game by standing behind a quarterback who transferred out of the program and likely cost them a shot at the playoff. This is Cade Klubnik's team now, and Clemson is in a much better place for it. He could put up massive numbers on a beleaguered Vols defense. Clemson by double digits!
Allstate Sugar Bowl: (5)Alabama(-6.5) vs. (9)Kansas State at New Orleans, LA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
"If you can't say something nice about someone, make sure they're out of the Goddamn room" - Wayne Newton in The Adventures Of Ford Fairlane. Apparently, Nick Saban hasn't seen that movie. In his shamless pandering/crying to the selection committee for Alabama "deserving" to be in, Saban backhandedly called Kansas State a "bad loss." It's usually players who provide bulletin board material. Saban will have no one to blame but himself when the Wildcats give him a "bad loss." Yes, K-State is better than everyone thinks and Alabama still can't burn teams deep this year. Give me the Wildcats straight up!
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa(-2.5) vs. Kentucky at Nashville, TN
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the rematch nobody wanted even before we realized that we would have a game between two quarterbacks with no college experience. Will Levis is going pro. Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla are tired of getting the blame for Iowa's despicable offense and are transferring elsewhere. Oh, and Chris Rodriguez is leaving for the NFL as well. For the love of all things holy, bet the under 31 in this one. It's going to be ugly, but Iowa sure as hell is not winning this game. I've seen middle school offenses more efficient than the Hawkeyes.
VRBO Fiesta Bowl: (3)TCU vs. (2)Michigan(-7.5) at Glendale, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
TCU is good enough to hang around this game for longer than Michigan would like, but I tend to think the Wolverines are going to grind them down too. That said, TCU has made a season out of hanging around when they shouldn't and winning games they shouldn't. I'm taking the Toadies not to get covered. I think there's a better chance of TCU winning outright or losing by a touchdown than Michigan winning by double digits. There are going to be a lot of Toadlickers in the Arizona desert. Look out!
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl: (4)Ohio State vs. (1)Georgia(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Jaxon Smith Njigba is sitting out (so much for the playoff expansion argument that players won't sit out if they have a shot at the title), but he wasn't much of a factor for the Buckeyes anyway. I'm not saying that he's not a good player...I'm just saying the Ohio State is used to going without him. This feels low. Georgia has left absolutely no doubt that they are the best team in the country so far. Under a touchdown feels like a gift.
ReliaQuest Bowl: (22)Mississippi State(-1.5) vs. Illinois at Tampa, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This game opened with the Illini favored, then Chase Brown opted out and the world lost a national treasure in Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have dedicated this game to him. Sorry, Illinois. I know you've had a great year and I know you're going to put up a fight, but the Bulldogs aren't losing this game. Not now.
Goodyear Cotton Bowl: (16)Tulane vs. (10)USC(-2.5) at Jerry World
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
USC's choke job in Vegas not only knocked them out of the playoff, but it landed them a game against a Tulane team that beat Kansas State in Manhattan and the Wave only have to go about six hours inland to see their game. This line is all over the place and I have even seen Tulane favored in places right now. The Wave were a trendy upset pick that no longer has any upside. I don't want USC to win, but there is a giant talent gap here. Will USC even want to be in this game? We've seen it a million times before. I'm taking Tulane, but I'm probably leaving this one alone. I don't trust it at all.
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: (17)LSU(-14.5) vs. Purdue at Orlando, FL
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Hey, who let those bozos smear their corporate advertising feces on two games! One is enough! Is LSU the better team? Yes. Are they more than two touchdowns better? I have my doubts. Give me Purdue.
Prudential Rose Bowl: (11)Penn State vs. (8)Utah(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tavion Thomas won't play, but he didn't play against USC either. Penn State's defense is good enough to hang around, but I don't see that offense doing enough to win this game. Give me Utah.
I only have two one-point bets in bowl games, so I'm going big at the end. What more do I have to lose? I ended up with 10 two-point bets and 17 three-point bets. I went heavy at the top as well with eight four-pointers and six max bets. I'm planning on making up some ground!
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