MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 8/12/26)

August 12, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 8/12/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

It's time again for my "Hump Day" MLB bets for the best sports prediction market out there - Novig! It's a wonderful Wednesday, and one reason why is that it's my Mom's birthday. I can't be with my mom today, but if she's reading this, then I hope she has a fantastic day and knows that I love and miss her very much.

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee that sportsbooks charge for using their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similar to how investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-120)

We rarely get NRFI odds better than -135 when we have two pretty good pitchers on the mound by this time in the season. Yet we have a very fair price of -120 available on Novig with Dustin May and Robbie Ray both set to make their second starts for their new clubs.

Robbie Ray's walk potential always scares me a bit, but if he can work around Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn, there's not another hitter in the Milwaukee lineup with an OPS better than .720 against lefties this season. Meanwhile, May is a consistent strike-thrower who can get guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado to hit the ball on the ground even if he doesn't whiff them.

MLB Team Totals

Philadelphia Phillies over 4.5 runs (-104) at St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Leahy)

The Phillies are tough on righties as they can fill out their lineup with a bunch of very good left-handed hitters. They're striking out just 15% of the time while walking 12% of the time against RHP over the last two weeks.

The acquisition of Luis Arraez at the deadline has cut down their strikeout rate while also allowing them to move Brandon Marsh down the lineup to spread out their power bats more.

They were blanked by the Cardinals and Andre Pallante last night, but this is a pretty nice spot for a bounce-back as Leahy has allowed a .482 SLG and 14.9% Barrel% to lefties this season.

The Phillies had scored five or more runs in seven of their last nine games before last night's goose egg. Look for them to deliver better performance today.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 6:00 AM ET

Drew Rasmussen OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Rasmussen is on an unreal tear right now, striking out 27 hitters over his last three starts without allowing a run. He's been the rock of this Rays' rotation all year, and today he gets a great matchup against a punchless Athletics lineup. He's cleared this K prop easily in all three of those starts, and yet we are still getting him at plus odds to do it again today!

Drew Rasmussen Is Better Than You Think, Even if You Think He’s Pretty Good https://t.co/Qj2CORxMP5 https://t.co/Qj2CORxMP5

— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) August 11, 2026

The Athletics are now missing their two best hitters as Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers are both on the shelf. Over the last two weeks, they have a wRC+ of just 79 against RHP, the fourth-worst mark in MLB. Nick Martinez went the full nine innings against them last night, and Rasmussen is a far superior pitcher to Martinez. I love him to dominate in this spot, and since his total outs prop is now up over 18, I'm going to invest in his strikeout potential instead.

Will Warren OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Warren has been riding a nice three-game streak of five strikeouts or more and has done it against three pretty offenses (PHI, CHC, and STL). The Mariners are not really a team to fear right now with the bats, as they're striking out nearly 24% of the time against righties and are just one spot ahead of the Athletics in wRC+ at 80 over the last two weeks.

Jose Soriano UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Soriano made his Blue Jays debut last week, but failed to get through five innings while walking three and only striking out three Phillies. Maybe Toronto will fix his control issues this offseason, but I doubt we'll see much of a turnaround in the final six weeks of the season.

He faces a red-hot Boston offense today that has the best wRC+ (140) against RHP in baseball over the last two weeks. They're striking out just 16% of the time, while also walking nearly 11% of the time, which is a great recipe for another short outing for Soriano, who has failed to hit the six strikeout mark in four of his last five starts this season.

Framber Valdez OVER 17.5 OUTS (-135)

It's not the best strikeout prop slate today, but Valdez is a pitcher that I like for his total outs prop. The veteran lefty has gone seven strong innings in two consecutive starts and six of his last ten outings. He faces a Cleveland offense that was bested by the likes of another lefty, Sean Manaea, just as recently as last week.

Tyler Mahle OVER 16.5 OUTS (+115)

Mahle's strikeout prop is tempting, but I think his two straight 9-strikeout outings are likely outliers as he's still only a 9% SwStr% pitcher on the season. I do think, however, that he could pitch deep into this game for his new team (Atlanta) as he faces a Mets team that was blanked for six innings by the likes of Martin Perez yesterday. Mahle is in good form, and the matchup favors him here as long as he's throwing strikes early.

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