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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
After a long regular season, the stage is finally set for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Just 70 players remain, each with three weeks to turn a year's worth of work into the biggest prize of their season. It all begins this week at TPC Southwind, where one strong showing can reshape the entire playoff picture -- and one bad week can bring it crashing down.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 8/12/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Tommy Fleetwood (-115 at Novig) OVER Cameron Young
We outlined Cameron Young's fall off on the greens this season, but nothing could have prepared us for the worst putting week of his entire career over those four days at Sedgefield. Young lost a staggering 7.59 strokes putting at the Wyndham Championship, his worst mark in any event since joining the PGA Tour. That performance drops him to 110th in the field in year-long putting, and while I'm certainly not expecting another meltdown of that magnitude at TPC Southwind, it further highlights the volatility that comes with backing Young right now.
The ball-striking has remained good enough to produce top-10 finishes at both Detroit and Royal Birkdale, but I don't trust Young's tee-to-green profile nearly as much as Tommy Fleetwood's. Fleetwood holds significant advantages in several of the categories I'm prioritizing this week, ranking fourth in Driving Accuracy compared to 36th for Young, 12th in Weighted Proximity compared to 28th, and fourth in Around the Green play compared to 17th. He also has a sizable edge in Course History, ranking sixth compared to Young's 25th.
That's a particularly appealing combination at Southwind, where Fleetwood's precision and short-game consistency should help him avoid the big mistakes that can quickly derail a round. Young's superior length and elite ball-striking certainly give him a high ceiling, but Fleetwood simply offers more ways to win this matchup.
At a near pick'em price, I'll gladly take the player with the more complete statistical profile and the much higher floor.
Jackson Koivun (-111 at Novig) OVER Tom Kim
The kid got it done for us as an underdog against Cameron Young last week, and I'm going right back to the well with Jackson Koivun at essentially a pick'em price.
Despite finishing 22 spots behind Tom Kim on the final leaderboard at Sedgefield, Koivun actually outpaced him from tee to green. The difference came almost entirely on the greens, where Kim gained 6.3 strokes to the field while Koivun lost 1.7 — an eight-stroke putting delta that I'm not expecting to carry over to TPC Southwind.
That's particularly important given the change in putting surfaces and green complexes. Sedgefield's Donald Ross greens can be a nightmare to navigate, while Southwind should provide a much more benign test with Bermuda putting surfaces. The last time Koivun encountered a similarly favorable putting environment at TPC Twin Cities, he gained 6.4 strokes on the field. He also mentioned in the press room last week that Bermuda is his preferred surface over bentgrass, giving me even more confidence that we could see a putting rebound this week.
And if the putters are closer to neutral, I think Koivun has enough of an advantage tee-to-green to make this price particularly attractive. The Auburn product ranks fourth in this field in Driving Accuracy, eighth in Total Driving and seventh in Approach -- a statistical profile that gives him a comparable ceiling to Kim when it comes to ball-striking.
I'm not asking Koivun to replicate the putting performance that helped him win in Minnesota. I just need the eight-stroke putting gap between these two to regress toward something resembling their historical baselines. If it does, I make Jackson closer to a -130 favorite, making -111 a number I'm happy to lay.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 8/12/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Matt Fitzpatrick WINNER (+2841 at Novig)
A career-defining regular season for Matt Fitzpatrick ultimately ended in disappointment, missing the cut at Royal Birkdale. But sitting second in the season-long FedEx Cup points race, the Englishman still has three virtually guaranteed chances to add to his three-win tally, and TPC Southwind will give him a similar test to the ones he conquered at Harbour Town, Innisbrook and TPC Louisiana.
His two ball-striking cornerstones -- 17th on Tour in Driving Accuracy and first in Strokes Gained: Approach -- already give Fitzpatrick an eerily similar profile to many past champions in Memphis, including Justin Rose, Lucas Glover and Hideki Matsuyama. But unlike many of the game's premier ball-strikers, Matt doesn't give anything back on or around the greens.
He ranks second on Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens, while his putting has been particularly strong on Bermudagrass. He's eighth in this field on Bermudagrass greens, and his history at Southwind is even more impressive: Fitzpatrick has gained 22.49 strokes putting across seven career starts here, nearly six strokes more than anyone else in the field.
That's an awfully difficult combination to find at 28-1. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, you won't find a more reliable weekly projection on Tour than the World No. 4, and this is one of the rare spots where his course history, statistical profile and preferred putting surface all point in the same direction.
The missed cut at Royal Birkdale may have put a little dent in the perception surrounding Fitzpatrick heading into the playoffs, but I'm willing to chalk that up to one poor week rather than a meaningful change in his underlying profile. At 28-1, I think we're getting a legitimate win equity price on a player whose skill set is almost tailor-made for TPC Southwind.
