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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Los Angeles Chargers' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that shook up their coaching staff this offseason was the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers let go former head coach Anthony Lynn, former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to bring in Brandon Staley, Joe Lombardi, and Renaldo Hill to be the new leaders of the team. Staley will be the team's new head coach, Lombardi will be the new offensive coordinator, and Hill will be the new defensive coordinator.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Chargers players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Chargers coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Chargers' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Los Angeles Chargers fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the Los Angeles Chargers previous coaching staff: former head coach Anthony Lynn, former offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and former defensive coordinator Gus Bradley. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Head Coach: Anthony Lynn
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 37.31 | 290.5 | 1.5 | 1.38 | 2.25 | 0 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 39.19 | 284.25 | 1.94 | 3.88 | 14.94 | 0.31 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 35.13 | 267.88 | 1.65 | 2.92 | 10.77 | 0.14 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 20.81 | 86.81 | 0.69 | 9.06 | 11.06 | 82.81 | 0.63 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 24.31 | 95 | 0.38 | 7.75 | 9.31 | 54.06 | 0.13 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 22.81 | 101.26 | 0.82 | 6.71 | 8.50 | 57.15 | 0.35 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 11.13 | 18.31 | 156.19 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 12.69 | 20.31 | 170.63 | 1.19 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 11.47 | 18.76 | 159.53 | 0.92 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 4.25 | 6.13 | 49.5 | 0.38 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 5.06 | 8.13 | 58 | 0.5 |
| Lynn's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 78 | 4.33 | 6.59 | 49.27 | 0.36 |
Former Offensive Coordinator: Shane Steichen
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 8 | 36.38 | 290.75 | 1.5 | 1.38 | 1.63 | 0 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 39.19 | 284.25 | 1.94 | 3.88 | 14.94 | 0.31 |
| Steichen's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 24 | 38.25 | 286.42 | 1.79 | 3.04 | 10.5 | 0.21 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Chargers | 8 | 23.63 | 108 | 0.88 | 9.38 | 11.88 | 94.25 | 0.38 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 24.31 | 95 | 0.38 | 7.75 | 9.31 | 54.06 | 0.13 |
| Steichen's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 24 | 24.08 | 99.33 | 0.54 | 8.29 | 10.17 | 67.46 | 0.21 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 8 | 10 | 15.88 | 149.75 | 0.63 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 12.69 | 20.31 | 170.63 | 1.19 |
| Steichen's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 24 | 11.79 | 18.83 | 163.67 | 1 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Chargers | 8 | 4.5 | 6.75 | 46.75 | 0.5 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 5.06 | 8.13 | 58 | 0.5 |
| Steichen's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 24 | 4.88 | 7.67 | 54.25 | 0.5 |
Former Defensive Coordinator: Gus Bradley
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Chargers | 16 | 21.56 | 200.25 | 112.81 | 57.69 | 5.43 | 0.88 |
| 2020 Chargers | 16 | 26.63 | 223.63 | 119.81 | 62.31 | 5.51 | 1.19 |
| Bradley's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 190 | 23.14 | 228.03 | 115.99 | 64.13 | 5.37 | 1.35 |
2021 Offense
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Joe Lombardi
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2014 Detroit Lions | 16 | 37.75 | 267.75 | 1.38 | 2.69 | 5.81 | 0.13 |
| 2015 Detroit Lions | 7 | 43 | 293.86 | 1.86 | 2 | 8.86 | 0 |
| Lombardi's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 23 | 39.35 | 275.70 | 1.52 | 2.48 | 6.74 | 0.09 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2014 Detroit Lions | 16 | 21.13 | 80.06 | 0.56 | 6.75 | 10.13 | 55.69 | 0.31 |
| 2015 Detroit Lions | 7 | 16.43 | 53 | 0.29 | 8.29 | 11 | 71 | 0.43 |
| Lombardi's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 23 | 19.70 | 71.83 | 0.48 | 7.22 | 10.39 | 60.35 | 0.35 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2014 Detroit Lions | 16 | 13.13 | 21.44 | 184.94 | 0.88 |
| 2015 Detroit Lions | 7 | 14.29 | 23.71 | 170.29 | 0.86 |
| Lombardi's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 23 | 13.48 | 22.13 | 180.48 | 0.87 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2014 Detroit Lions | 16 | 2.56 | 4.63 | 24.5 | 0.13 |
| 2015 Detroit Lions | 7 | 4.43 | 6.86 | 52.14 | 0.57 |
| Lombardi's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 23 | 3.13 | 5.30 | 32.91 | 0.26 |
Joe Lombardi Takeaways & Expectations
The grandson of legendary Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi, Joe Lombardi has been coaching in the NFL since 2006. While he's primarily been the New Orleans Saints quarterbacks coach (2009-2013, 2016-2020) over this time, he also had a 23 game stretch where he was the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator (2014-2015) before he was fired and replaced with Jim Bob Cooter. During his time with the Detroit Lions, Lombardi ran a very pass-happy offense that averaged 39.35 passing attempts per game. If this level of passing usage continues with the Chargers, Justin Herbert will have a massive ceiling and could end up throwing the ball more than any other quarterback during the 2021 season.
Besides passing, from a fantasy perspective, it's also important to look at the amount of rushing work that a quarterback may receive since it can provide a major boost to their fantasy production.
With Matthew Stafford as his starting quarterback, Lombardi saw his quarterback room average just 2.48 carries per game. Justin Herbert showed more willingness to run in 2020 than Stafford ever has, averaging 3.67 carries per game and it's likely that Lombardi lets Herbert continue to run three or four times per game. Overall, Herbert has a ton of passing upside in Lombardi's system and won't be a liability on the ground either. Because of this, Herbert is a strong QB1 for the 2021 NFL season with top-five fantasy QB upside.
Examining Joe Lombardi's running back rooms over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator it's a bit of a mixed bag. In the 23 games that Lombardi's been an offensive coordinator, his running back room has averaged 19.70 carries and 0.48 rushing touchdowns per game - both of which are well below-average.
Lombardi's inability to feed his backs on the ground was one of the big reasons that he got fired after 23 games as the Lions offensive coordinator. With Lombardi as the team's play-caller, the Chargers won't be handing it off to their backs 24.31 times per game like they did last year and likely see a major drop in rushing attempts.
But besides the amount of volume (carries) on the ground that Lombardi has historically provided, we also need to consider how that volume has been distributed over the course of his career - is Lombardi rolling with a bell-cow or a running back by committee approach?
Examining the data, while Joe Lombardi did not give his tailbacks a lot of carries he did lean towards more of a bell-cow approach on the ground - giving Joique Bell 223 carries during the 2014 NFL season. There are some concerns on how many carries lead back Austin Ekeler can handle since he has yet to see more than 132 carries in a single season (2019), but it is encouraging to see that Lombardi may be willing to feature Ekeler more on the ground if he can prove he's capable of handling it.
The final aspect we should look at regarding Joe Lombardi's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Lombardi's running back room has averaged an unheard of 10.39 targets per game - one of the best marks in the league among active play-callers.
It is important to note that the Chargers also frequently utilized their running backs in the passing game under Anthony Lynn with the team hovering around ten tailback targets per game in each of the last two years. But nonetheless, it is encouraging to see that Ekeler's receiving upside will remain as one of the highest in the NFL among running backs for the 2021 season. Overall, Ekeler should have a very nice fantasy season if he stays healthy and his low-end RB1/high-end RB2 valuation is warranted.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, Lombardi has provided his wide receivers with 22.13 targets per game over the course of his 23 game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage is very encouraging to see. Lombardi's career average of 22.13 wide receiver targets per game is higher than the number of targets per game former Chargers head coach Anthony Lynn (18.76) and former Chargers offensive coordinator Shane Steichen (18.83) provided their wide receivers over the course of their careers. In Lombardi's system, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams should receive more usage in 2021 and put up better fantasy production in general.
Lastly, Lombardi's historical usage of tight ends has been slightly below-average. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Lombardi's tight end room has averaged 5.30 targets per game.
Lombardi's tight end usage with the Lions left something to be desired. With the Chargers' current roster, it's unlikely that Lombardi changes his strategy in utilizing the tight end position. Jared Cook will likely have some solid weeks here and there, but overall doesn't have enough upside to be a good draft target in fantasy drafts.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson, Larry Rountree III, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Josh Palmer, Tre' McKitty, Jalen Guyton, Jared Cook, and Virgil Green
2021 Defense
2021 Head Coach: Brandon Staley
Brandon Staley had a meteoric rise in the coaching ranks to become the Chargers head coach. In 2016, he was the defensive coordinator at Division III college John Carroll. Then in 2017, he made the jump to the NFL, spending time as the Chicago Bears (2017-2018) and the Denver Broncos (2019) as an outside linebackers coach. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay noticed the great job that Staley was doing, and brought him in to be the team's defensive coordinator in 2020. Let's take a look at some of the Rams defensive statistics during Brandon Staley's one year as the defensive coordinator.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 Rams | 16 | 18.5 | 190.69 | 91.25 | 61.81 | 4.56 | 1.38 |
|
Staley's Career Averages (DC/HC)
|
16 | 18.5 | 190.69 | 91.25 | 61.81 | 4.56 | 1.38 |
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Renaldo Hill
| Renaldo Hill Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2012 | Wyoming (College) |
Graduate Assistant
|
| 2013 | Wyoming (College) |
Cornerbacks Coach
|
| 2015 | Pittsburgh (College) |
Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2016 | Pittsburgh (College) |
Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2017 | Pittsburgh (College) |
Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2018 | Miami Dolphins |
Assistant Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2019 | Denver Broncos |
Defensive Backs Coach
|
| 2020 | Denver Broncos |
Defensive Backs Coach
|
In just his first year as the Rams defensive coordinator, Staley had the Rams as the number one defense in the league in both points allowed and yards allowed. The defense shut down the pass, with opposing teams putting up just 190.69 passing yards per game against the Rams (league average: 240.2). They shut down the run, with opposing teams averaging just 91.25 rushing yards per game (league average: 118.9). With defensive playmakers like Joey Bosa and Derwin James already on the Chargers roster, Staley & his staff will take the defense to a new level in 2021. From a fantasy perspective, the Chargers D/ST should be a great upside D/ST pick late in your fantasy draft.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Derius Swinton II - Derius Swinton II will be brand new to the Chargers coaching staff in 2021. He's been coaching since 2007 and coaching in the NFL since 2009, spending time with the St. Louis Rams (2009-2011), Kansas City Chiefs (2012), Denver Broncos (2013-2014), Chicago Bears (2015, 2017), San Francisco 49ers (2016), Detroit Lions (2018), and Arizona Cardinals (2019-2020). He was the special teams coordinator of the 49ers back in 2016.
QB Coach: Shane Day - Shane Day is brand new to the Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff in 2021. He's previously been a quarterbacks coach for the Chicago Bears (2010-2011) and San Francisco 49ers (2019-2020). He's also coached for the Washington Redskins (2014-2015) as an assistant offensive line coach and for the Miami Dolphins as a tight ends coach (2016-2018).
RB Coach: Derrick Foster - Derrick Foster is entering his first year with the Los Angeles Chargers. He spent the last three years at the University of Iowa as a running backs coach.
WR Coach: Chris Beatty - 2021 will Chris Beatty's first year in the NFL as a coach. At the college level he was the wide receivers coach for Vanderbilt (2011), Wisconsin (2013-2014), Maryland (2016-2018), and Pittsburgh (2019-2020).
TE Coach: Kevin Koger - 2021 will be Kevin Koger's first season as the Los Angeles Chargers tight ends coach. He was previously the Green Bay Packers offensive quality control coach (2019-2020).
OL Coach: Frank Smith - Frank Smith is new to the Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff in 2021. At the NFL level he's previously been an assistant offensive line coach for the New Orleans Saints (2010-2014), a tight ends coach for the Chicago Bears (2015-2017), and a tight ends coach for the Las Vegas Raiders (2018-2020). He also served as an offensive line coach at Butler from 2006-2009.
DL Coach: Giff Smith - Giff Smith is one of the only coaches to remain from the previous regime, and has been the Los Angeles Chargers defensive line coach since 2016. He has also been a defensive line coach for the Buffalo Bills (2010-2012) and Tennessee Titans (2014-2015).
LB Coach: Michael Wilhoite - Michael Wilhoite will be the Los Angeles Chargers linebackers coach in 2021. As a coach, he's spent time with the New Orleans Saints as a special teams assistant (2019) and defensive assistant (2020). He also played linebacker in the NFL for the San Francisco 49ers (2011-2016) and the Seattle Seahawks (2017).
OLB Coach: Jay Rodgers - Jay Rodgers is brand new to the Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff in 2021. He previously spent time with the Denver Broncos (2009-2014) in a variety of roles, including as a defensive line coach (2012-2014) as well as serving as the Chicago Bears defensive line coach from 2015-2020.
Secondary Coach: Derrick Ansley - 2021 will be Derrick Ansley's first year as a part of the Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff. At the NFL level, he's been a defensive backs coach for the Oakland Raiders (2018) and at the college level he's worked at Alabama (2010-2011, 2016-2017), Tennessee (2012, 2019-2020), and Kentucky (2013-2015).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Las Vegas Raiders
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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