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After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Tennessee Titans were forced to make some adjustments to their staff after offensive coordinator Arthur Smith left to become the new head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. The Titans will have the same head coach in Mike Vrabel, but promoted two new coordinators from within - former tight ends coach Todd Downing to offensive coordinator and former outside linebackers coach Shane Bowen to defensive coordinator.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Titans players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Titans coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Titans' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Titans fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to take a look at how former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith utilized his players during his time with the team. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Offensive Coordinator: Arthur Smith
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 28 | 247.25 | 1.81 | 4.19 | 19.63 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 30.31 | 239.13 | 2.06 | 3.13 | 17.25 | 0.44 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 29.16 | 243.19 | 1.94 | 3.66 | 18.44 | 0.34 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 23 | 110.94 | 1 | 2.69 | 3.56 | 23.13 | 0.19 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 25.97 | 130.13 | 1.06 | 2.41 | 3.44 | 17.84 | 0.16 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 10.69 | 15.94 | 160.69 | 1.06 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 11.44 | 16.88 | 163.69 | 1.19 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 11.06 | 16.41 | 162.19 | 1.13 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 4.75 | 6.69 | 59.25 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 5.88 | 8.63 | 60.44 | 0.75 |
| Smith's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 32 | 5.31 | 7.66 | 59.84 | 0.59 |
2021 Offense
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Todd Downing
Todd Downing was promoted from tight ends coach to offensive coordinator after Arthur Smith left to be the Atlanta Falcons' new head coach. Downing has been an offensive coordinator before with the Oakland Raiders back in 2017, so he has some prior experience in the role. Let's dive into some statistics from Downing's prior experience as an offensive coordinator to get a better understanding of how the Titans may utilize their offensive players in 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 34.88 | 235.06 | 1.44 | 1.56 | 5.06 | 0 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 34.88 | 235.06 | 1.44 | 1.56 | 5.06 | 0 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 11.81 | 20.13 | 142.5 | 1.19 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 11.81 | 20.13 | 142.5 | 1.19 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2017 Raiders | 16 | 4.44 | 6.88 | 52.75 | 0.13 |
| Downing's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 16 | 4.44 | 6.88 | 52.75 | 0.13 |
Todd Downing Takeaways & Expectations
Back in 2017 with Todd Downing as the offensive coordinator, the Raiders averaged 34.88 passing attempts per game. This ranked as the 15th most in the league during the 2017 season, right in the middle-of-the-pack. Given the Titans have averaged just 29.16 passing attempts over the past two years, we shouldn't expect the team to jump into the upper half of the league in passing attempts. But what we should expect is a couple more pass attempts per game than what Arthur Smith was calling for the team.
For fantasy football purposes, it's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can be a cheat code in the fantasy football world. In his short career as an offensive coordinator, Downing's quarterback room has averaged just 1.56 carries per game.
Derek Carr & the rest of the Raiders quarterback room didn't carry the ball a lot in Todd Downing's time with the Raiders. But it's important to remember that rushing is not really Derek Carr's forte and it's just one season. There may been a slight dip in the number of rushing attempts we see from Ryan Tannehill in 2021, but it won't be significant enough to impact his fantasy value. From a fantasy perspective, Tannehill should be valued somewhere in the low QB1/high QB2 range based on his talent and situation.
Examining Todd Downings's running back room in 2017, the results are pretty disappointing. In those 16 games that Downing's been an offensive coordinator, his running back room has averaged 0.63 rushing touchdowns per game which is average. In addition, Downing's running backs received 20 carries per game in this time which is fewer than the average running back room.
It is concerning to see that Downing gave his running back room just twenty carries per game, especially considering...
- With Bill Musgrave as the offensive coordinator (2016) in the year before Downing called the plays, the Raiders gave their running backs 22.88 carries per game.
- The Titans' previous offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, provided his running backs with 23 carries per game in 2019 and 28.94 carries per game in 2020.
The number of rushing attempts by running backs will surely drop from the high 2020 totals with Downing calling the plays. But in terms of the distribution of carries, was Downing feeding one player or conducting a running back by committee approach during his time in Oakland?
Downing did a great job of feeding his lead back in 2017, giving a 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch 207 of the team's 320 season running back carries (64.69%). Working with a star running back in Derrick Henry, this won't change much in 2021 season and Henry will remain as a bell-cow back that gets a ton of usage.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Todd Downing's running backs is how much he uses them in the passing game. In his one season as an offensive coordinator in Oakland, Downing's running back room averaged seven targets per game - which is pretty average. The Titans won't give that level of receiving workload to a running back room headlined by a subpar pass-catcher in Derrick Henry in 2021. But considering former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith did not provide much receiving work for his running backs in the passing game, there could be more receiving opportunities for the Titans backs than the 3.31 targets per game they saw in 2020. Expect a little bit of growth in this area and the team to target their backs four or five times per game.
Overall, the Titans running backs should see a decrease in carries per game, around the same percentage of carries to the lead back, and a slight increase in targets per game with Todd Downing as the new offensive coordinator. Based on all of this information, Derrick Henry should still be an RB1 for the 2021 season in fantasy football leagues. However, if you are expecting Henry to build upon his incredible numbers in 2020 you will likely be disappointed.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Downing provided his wide receivers with 20.13 targets per game in his one season as the Oakland Raiders offensive coordinator. This is higher than the averages achieved by the Titans the last two seasons with Arthur Smith, who targeted his wide receivers just 16.41 times per game.
While it's expected that the Titans system will largely stay the same, there is a very real possibility we see an increase in targets to their wide receivers in 2021. This raises A.J. Brown's ceiling a little bit and gives him a great opportunity to finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver.
Last but not least, we need to look at how Todd Downing's tight end usage may differ from Arthur Smith's. In his one season as an offensive coordinator prior to the 2021 season, Todd Downing provided his tight ends with 6.88 targets per game.
This is in the same ballpark as targets provided to the Titans tight ends over the past couple of years, indicating there won't be any major coaching philosophy changes at this position. Based on this, in fantasy leagues, Anthony Firkser may have some sleeper appeal for the 2021 season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Jeremy McNichols, Darrynton Evans, A.J. Brown, Josh Reynolds, Dez Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, Marcus Johnson, Cameron Batson, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt
2021 Defense
2021 Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
Mike Vrabel signed on to become the Tennessee Titans head coach in 2018, and since then he's led the team to three consecutive winning seasons, compiling a 29-19 record. While the team's records have been good, the defenses have been mediocre at best - which is disappointing given Vrabel's defensive background. Let's take a look at some of Vrabel's team defensive statistics during his time as the Houston Texans defensive coordinator (2017) and as the Tennessee Titans head coach (2018-Present)
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Titans | 16 | 20.69 | 255 | 104.5 | 66 | 5.45 | 1.44 |
| 2020 Titans | 16 | 27.44 | 277.44 | 120.81 | 67.25 | 5.92 | 1.44 |
| Vrabel's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 64 | 23.58 | 246.70 | 112.73 | 64.16 | 5.60 | 1.23 |
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Shane Bowen
| Shane Bowen Previous NFL Coaching Jobs | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2016-2017 | Houston Texans |
Defensive Assistant
|
| 2018-2020 | Tennessee Titans |
Outside Linebackers Coach
|
In 2020, the Titans defense was one of the worst in the league with the team giving up 27.44 points per game. They were particularly bad against the pass and giving up 277.44 passing yards per game. This drop-off in production may have been due to the Titans letting go of defensive coordinator Dean Pees and rolling with no official defensive coordinator in 2020 (Shane Bowen was reportedly the de facto defensive coordinator). For the 2021 season, they decided to address this issue by promoting Shane Bowen from the outside linebackers coach to the official defensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. This move combined with the team's talent probably won't be enough to make the Tennessee Titans D/ST anything more than a streaming option for fantasy football leagues in the 2021 season.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Craig Aukerman - Craig Aukerman has been the Titans special teams coordinator since 2018. He's also spent time in the NFL with the Denver Broncos as a defensive assistant (2010), the Jacksonville Jaguars as a defensive assistant (2011) and as an assistant special teams coach (2012), the San Diego Chargers as an assistant special teams coach (2013-2015) and special teams coordinator (2016), and as the assistant special teams coach on the Tennessee Titans (2017).
QB Coach: Pat O'Hara - Pat O'Hara has been the Titans quarterbacks coach since 2018. In the NFL he previously spent time with the Houston Texans as an offensive assistant (2015-2017) and as a quarterbacks coach (2017).
RB Coach: Tony Dews - Tony Dews has been coaching football since 1998. He became the Titans running backs coach in 2018 after serving as West Virginia's running backs coach in 2017. The Titans are the only NFL team that Dews has worked for.
WR Coach: Rob Moore - Rob Moore played 12 seasons in the NFL as a wide receiver, spending time with the New York Jets (1990-1994) and Arizona Cardinals (1995-2001). He has been the Tennessee Titans wide receivers coach since 2018 after previously spending time coaching NFL wide receivers for the Buffalo Bills (2014) and Oakland Raiders (2015-2017).
TE Coach: Luke Steckel - Luke Steckel has been with the Tennessee Titans since 2013 in a variety of roles, but 2021 will be his first year coaching tight ends. Prior to joining the Titans, Steckel was an assistant to the head coach for the Cleveland Browns (2009-2012).
OL Coach: Keith Carter - Keith Carter has been the Tennessee Titans offensive line coach since 2018. Some of his other roles in the NFL include being the Seattle Seahawks offensive quality control coach (2012-2013), the Atlanta Falcons assistant offensive line (2015-2016), and the Atlanta Falcons running backs coach (2017).
DL Coach: Terrell Williams - Terrell Williams has been a defensive line coach since 1998. Prior to joining the Tennessee Titans in 2018, he spent time with the Oakland Raiders (2012-2014) and Miami Dolphins (2015-2017) in the same role.
OLB Coach: Ryan Crow - Ryan Crow has been with the Tennessee Titans since 2018 but 2021 will be his first year coaching the outside linebackers. He previously was a defensive assistant (2018-2019) and the assistant special teams (2020) coach for the team.
ILB Coach: Jim Haslett - Jim Haslett is one of the most experienced coaches on the Tennessee Titans coaching staff, with a coaching career dating back all the way to 1988. In the NFL he's been the linebackers coach for the Los Angeles Raiders (1993-1994), the linebackers coach for the New Orleans Saints (1995), the New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator (1996), the Pittsburgh Steelers defensive coordinator (1997-1999), the New Orleans Saints head coach (2000-2005), the St. Louis Rams defensive coordinator (2006-2008), the Washington Redskins defensive coordinator (2010-2014), the Cincinnati Bengals linebackers coach (2016-2018), and the Tennessee Titans inside linebackers coach (2020-Present).
Secondary Coach: Anthony Midget - Anthony Midget has been the Titans secondary coach since 2020. He previously spent time with the Houston Texans as the assistant secondary coach (2014-2017) and as the secondary coach (2018-2019).
Safeties Coach: Scott Booker - Scott Booker has been in the coaching world since 2003. The 2020 season was the first year he was the Titans safeties coach, after previously serving as a defensive assistant on the team (2018-2019).
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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