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Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Indianapolis Colts' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
The Indianapolis Colts saw offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni become the newest head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, but otherwise, they will still have many of the key coaching staff members as 2020. Frank Reich will return as the Colts head coach and Matt Eberflus will be back as the team's defensive coordinator. Marcus Brady is the only new coordinator, being promoted from the team's quarterbacks coach in 2020 to the team's offensive coordinator this year.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Colts players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Colts coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Colts' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Frank Reich
Frank Reich has been the Indianapolis Colts head coach since 2018, after previously serving in roles as the San Diego Chargers offensive coordinator (2014-2015) and the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator (2016-2017). He's done a great job as a head coach thus far compiling a 28-20 record. Given his offensive background and role as the primary play-caller on the team, let's dive deeper into some of his team's offensive statistics over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator and head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Colts | 16 | 32.06 | 207.13 | 1.38 | 4 | 14.38 | 0.25 |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 34.5 | 261.63 | 1.5 | 2.19 | 0.69 | 0.19 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 38.81 | 259.03 | 1.79 | 2.94 | 8.79 | 0.08 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Colts | 16 | 24.94 | 114.5 | 0.81 | 4.38 | 5.69 | 31.5 | 0 |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 25.56 | 117.69 | 0.94 | 7.13 | 8.38 | 57.25 | 0.31 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 23.77 | 100.71 | 0.65 | 5.63 | 7.33 | 44.26 | 0.20 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Colts | 16 | 9.38 | 15.88 | 115.06 | 0.94 |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 10.94 | 17.56 | 148.44 | 0.69 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 11.68 | 19.18 | 145.38 | 0.89 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Colts | 16 | 5.38 | 8.81 | 60.44 | 0.44 |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 5.13 | 7.44 | 55.94 | 0.5 |
| Reich's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 112 | 6.32 | 9.47 | 69.29 | 0.69 |
Frank Reich Takeaways & Expectations
Over the course of his career, Frank Reich's offense has attempted a ton of passes - averaging 38.81 pass attempts per game. But it's been a different story the last couple of years. In both 2019 and 2020, Frank Reich's team attempted a below-average number of passes with 32.06 pass attempts in 2019 and 34.5 pass attempts in 2020.
However, it's also important to note that Frank Reich will be reuniting with Carson Wentz, who was the Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback in 2016 and 2017 when Reich was the offensive coordinator there. In these years, the Eagles averaged 38.06 passing attempts per game (2016) and 35.25 passing attempts per game (2017). Based on all this information, expect the Colts to attempt somewhere around the league average of pass attempts (~35) with Wentz in 2021.
It's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can be a bit of a cheat code in the fantasy football world. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Reich's quarterback room has averaged 2.94 carries per game.
Looking at the QB carries graph above, Reich has never given his QB room more than five carries per game in any season he's been an offensive coordinator or a head coach. Because of this, we should expect Wentz to only carry the ball three or four times per game. From a fantasy perspective, Wentz should be viewed as a QB2 going into the 2021 season.
Examining Frank Reich's running back rooms, he's done a pretty good job utilizing and getting production out of the group. Over the course of the 112 games he's been an offensive coordinator or head coach, his running back room has averaged 0.65 rushing touchdowns per game which is average. In addition, his running backs have received 23.77 carries per game which is above average.
Clearly, Reich's running back room will get a decent number of carries in Indianapolis. But in terms of the distribution of carries, how often is it going to one player versus Reich rolling with a running back by committee approach?
For the most part, Reich has favored a running back by committee approach with his lead back failing to receive more than 62% of the season running back carries in any year he's been an offensive coordinator or head coach. Based on his talent, Jonathan Taylor should still see a lion's share of the carries, but it's important to be aware that Reich may spread the carries around more than fantasy players would like.
The final aspect we should look at concerning Frank Reich's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them as pass-catchers. Over the course of his career, Reich's running back room has averaged 7.33 targets per game which is above the league average.
This receiving usage is encouraging to see and should give the Colts running backs a boost in fantasy production - particularly in PPR formats.
Overall, the volume is there in Frank Reich's offense to produce an elite fantasy running back with a high number of running back carries and targets per game. But the big question is if Frank Reich will give his main back, Jonathan Taylor, a high enough percentage of the work for him to hit his ceiling of being the number one overall back in fantasy football. If you think he will give Taylor 60%+ of the running back opportunities (carries and targets), Taylor should be a bonafide top 5 selection in fantasy drafts. If you think it will be less than that, you should be viewing Taylor as more of a low-end RB1/high-end RB2. Either way, Frank Reich's offensive play-calling should be beneficial to the Colts running backs.
Looking at the wide receiver position, Reich has provided his wide receivers with 19.18 targets per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator. But there is some reason for concern.
The last two years with the Indianapolis Colts have resulted in 15.88 (2019) and 17.56 (2020) wide receiver targets per game, which is well below the NFL league averages during this time. Based on this information, the Colts' wide receivers: T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, and Michael Pittman Jr. may have more of an uphill battle to being anything more than a FLEX play.
Finally, Reich's historical usage of tight ends is extremely encouraging. In his seven-year career as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, his tight end room has topped seven targets per game in every single season.
Reich will feed his tight ends more than just about any other offensive mind in the league. Based on this information, Kylen Granson looks like a great value in rookie drafts right now and if one player, in particular, ends up dominating the snaps at the tight end position for the Colts, they will be a strong TE1.
While Frank Reich will be the primary play-caller for the Colts, it's also important that we take a look at the impact his offensive coordinator, Marcus Brady, may have on the offense.
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Marcus Brady
Marcus Brady has been an offensive coordinator in the CFL for the Montreal Alouettes (2012) and Toronto Argonauts (2013-2017). Let's look at some of his team's offensive statistics during his time as an offensive coordinator.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2012 Alouettes | 18 | 32.56 | 293.17 | 1.78 | 3.33 | 18.28 | 0.61 |
| 2013 Argonauts | 18 | 34.17 | 300.33 | 2.00 | 4.22 | 18.50 | 0.39 |
| 2014 Argonauts | 18 | 37.83 | 280.28 | 1.72 | 4.06 | 16.39 | 0.11 |
| 2015 Argonauts | 18 | 34.56 | 269.44 | 2.06 | 4.22 | 15.67 | 0.17 |
| 2016 Argonauts | 18 | 36.11 | 260.94 | 1.56 | 5.00 | 22.89 | 0.17 |
| 2017 Argonauts | 18 | 39.61 | 320.94 | 1.67 | 3.72 | 16.22 | 0.28 |
| Brady's Career Averages (CFL OC) | 108 | 35.81 | 287.52 | 1.80 | 4.09 | 17.99 | 0.29 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
| 2012 Alouettes | 18 | 15.17 | 74.94 | 0.44 | 6.94 | 74.56 | 0.61 |
| 2013 Argonauts | 18 | 10.06 | 57.61 | 0.39 | 3.11 | 28.72 | 0.06 |
| 2014 Argonauts | 18 | 12.44 | 71.56 | 0.28 | 7.00 | 60.17 | 0.33 |
| 2015 Argonauts | 18 | 10.94 | 57.33 | 0.17 | 6.94 | 56.94 | 0.22 |
| 2016 Argonauts | 18 | 11.22 | 59.67 | 0.22 | 6.61 | 47.17 | 0.28 |
| 2017 Argonauts | 18 | 12.50 | 73.44 | 0.28 | 8.39 | 78.06 | 0.11 |
| Brady's Career Averages (CFL OC) | 108 | 12.06 | 65.76 | 0.30 | 6.50 | 57.60 | 0.27 |
WR/TE Impact
| Year | Games | WR/TE Rec. | WR/TE Rec. Yds. |
WR/TE Rec. TDs
|
| 2012 Alouettes | 18 | 12.28 | 216.67 | 1.06 |
| 2013 Argonauts | 18 | 20.56 | 265.11 | 1.83 |
| 2014 Argonauts | 18 | 18.17 | 210.83 | 1.33 |
| 2015 Argonauts | 18 | 16.61 | 203.72 | 1.83 |
| 2016 Argonauts | 18 | 17.56 | 208.83 | 1.28 |
| 2017 Argonauts | 18 | 17.50 | 222.56 | 1.28 |
| Brady's Career Averages (CFL OC) | 108 | 17.11 | 221.29 | 1.44 |
Marcus Brady Takeaways & Expectations
It's difficult to have a ton of takeaways from Marcus Brady's experience as an offensive coordinator in the Canadian Football League (CFL) because the league is significantly different from the NFL in terms of rules and gameplay. However, looking at all this data, if you are to make one takeaway it would be that Marcus Brady really liked to utilize his running backs in the passing game - with his running backs averaging 6.5 receptions and 57.60 receiving yards per game. This is great news for the Indianapolis Colts running backs Nyheim Hines and Jonathan Taylor, and make them good draft targets in your fantasy leagues.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Carson Wentz, Sam Ehlinger, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell, Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, Kylen Granson, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Matt Eberflus
Matt Eberflus has been involved in coaching since 1992 and has been coaching in the NFL since 2009. He joined the Colts as a defensive coordinator in 2018, originally signing on to join forces with New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels before McDaniels backed out and Frank Reich was brought in to be the newest head coach of the team. He's done an impressive job as the Colts defensive coordinator, so much so that he's even gotten some interviews for the vacant head coaching positions in recent years.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Colts | 16 | 23.31 | 248.88 | 97.94 | 61.63 | 5.63 | 1.44 |
| 2020 Colts | 16 | 22.63 | 241.63 | 90.5 | 62 | 5.36 | 1.56 |
| Eberflus's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 48 | 22.48 | 242.77 | 96.77 | 61.98 | 5.48 | 1.54 |
Eberflus has coordinated a strong defense across the board, but the one area his defenses have shined in particular is in stopping the run. Over the course of his career as a defensive coordinator, Eberflus's defense has given up just 96.77 rushing yards per game, which is about twenty yards per game better than the league averages the last couple of years. Based on all this information, the Colts D/ST is a strong buy for fantasy football leagues and you should be aware that the Colts will be a difficult matchup for any running backs next year.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Bubba Ventrone - Bubba Ventrone has been the Indianapolis Colts special teams coordinator since 2018. Before that, he was a New England Patriots assistant special teams coach from 2015-2017.
QB Coach: Scott Milanovich - Scott Milanovich will be entering his first year as the Indianapolis Colts quarterbacks coach. He's been coaching since 2004, with his most recent coaching stops as the Toronto Argonauts head coach (CFL, 2012-2016), Jacksonville Jaguars quarterbacks coach (2017-2019), and Edmonton Football Team head coach (CFL, 2020).
RB Coach: Scottie Montgomery - Scottie Montgomery has been involved in coaching since 2006. This will be his first time as a running backs coach. Some of his most notable stops in the past are as the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers coach (2010-2012), East Carolina's head coach (2016-2018), and Maryland's offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach (2019-2020).
WR Coach: Mike Groh - Mike Groh has been coaching since 2000. He's spent time in the NFL as the New York Jets offensive assistant/quality control coach (2000), Chicago Bears wide receivers coach (2013-2015), Los Angeles Rams passing game coordinator (2016), Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers coach (2017), and Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator (2018-2019) prior to becoming the Indianapolis Colts wide receivers coach in 2020.
TE Coach: Klayton Adams - 2021 will be the first year that Klayton Adams will be the Indianapolis Colts tight ends after serving as the assistant offensive line coach (2019-2020). He has previously coached tight ends at Sacramento State (2009), San Jose State (2011-2012), and Colorado (2013-2015).
OL Coach: Chris Strausser - Chris Strausser has an extensive coaching career that dates all the way back to 1989. He's been the Indianapolis Colts offensive line coach since 2019 and has previously worked as Washington's associate head coach/offensive line coach (2014-2016) and as an assistant offensive line coach with the Denver Broncos (2017-2018).
DL Coach: Brian Baker - Brian Baker has been the Indianapolis Colts defensive line coach since 2020. He's been coaching since 1984 and has spent time as an NFL defensive line coach with the San Diego Chargers (1996), Detroit Lions (1997-2000), Minnesota Vikings (2001, 2004-2005), St. Louis Rams (2006-2008), Carolina Panthers (2009-2010), and Dallas Cowboys (2011-2012).
LB Coach: Dave Borgonzi - Dave Borgonzi has been the Indianapolis linebackers coach since 2018. His previous NFL stops include being an offensive/defensive assistant with the Dallas Cowboys (2011-2013) and a defensive quality control/assistant linebackers coach with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014-2017).
Corners Coach: James Rowe - 2021 will be James Rowe's first year as the Indianapolis Colts cornerbacks coach. He has been coaching since 2007, but his only NFL job prior to this year was with the Washington Football Team as an assistant defensive backs coach (2017-2019).
Safeties Coach: Alan Williams - Alan Williams has been the Indianapolis Colts safeties coach since 2018. He's been coaching since 1992 and has spent time as a defensive assistant on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2001), a defensive backs coach on the Indianapolis Colts (2002-2011), the Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator (2012-2013), and as the Detroit Lions defensive backs/safeties coach (2014-2017) prior to his current role.
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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