Analyzing Elusiveness to Find Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers and Busts in 2025

John's top fantasy football sleepers and draft targets or busts and draft avoids for running backs based on elusiveness in 2025.

Elusiveness is one of the most underrated and most crucial skills a running back can have in the NFL. Gone are the days when big power backs were all every NFL team wanted. Constantly crashing into defenders at high speed is a great way to shorten a career. Additionally, there's more than one way to get past defenders without going down.

Heavy contact is one of the worst ways to do this, because it can lead to injury and significantly slow a player's momentum to close to zero. So there's great incentive for running backs to be able to juke, shimmy, and otherwise dodge tackle attempts to pick up more yards. And we've seen many backs have great success doing this.

The shiftiest NFL running backs often have solid careers because they consistently pick up more yardage than is easily given to them by each play. Teams are motivated to take touches away from non-elusive backs and give them to the guys who can make the most defenders miss. With that in mind, let's dive into some sleeper and bust running backs for the 2025 NFL season based on the all-important elusiveness metrics!

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Sleeper: James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Though Conner finished as the RB9 overall last season, he's ranked around the RB21 spot in fantasy Average Draft Position (ADP). This is likely due in no small part to his age -- Conner is now 30 years old. But among all running backs with 100 or more touches last season, it was Conner who led the entire league in missed tackles forced per attempt.

His ability to elude defenders hasn't faded. And though he's not particularly fast -- he's got around 4.6-second 40-yard dash speed -- he has an uncanny knack for breaking tackles, juking defenders, and making sudden lateral movements to send defensive players tumbling to the dirt.

James Conner’s longevity needs to be studied. Best RB we’ve had since David Johnson pic.twitter.com/6zNUzKb0Op

— Maserati Marv 🏎️ (fan) (@MHJera_) June 2, 2025

Conner doesn't often choose to try to run over defenders. Instead, he has a fantastic processing ability of what's happening in front of him, and often makes his cuts with impeccable timing to gain good leverage against would-be tacklers, coming out on top.

His rate of 0.31 missed tackles forced per touch is in elite territory. Forcing a missed tackle attempt nearly a third of the time, a back touching the ball is no small feat. This isn't an anomaly numbers-wise, either -- Conner's been doing this for years now.

This was called back, but just a reminder that James Conner is a scary dude. pic.twitter.com/qJ8UAh7bjI

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 28, 2024

His stiff arm is very impressive. Generally, when he lowers his shoulder, it's when it's necessary to pick up more yards. He's not often put into bad positions by his own mistakes, though, and always seems to fall forward.

So in the 5th round, it seems like you can't go wrong with taking Conner. He's in a run-heavy offense that's got great designed blocking schemes for him to thrive in, and he hasn't shown any signs of age-related fall-off in production yet. He should have another good season in him, at least.

Sleeper: Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks

Given how his rookie season went, we know Walker has a lot of potential. The problems since then, though, have been that he's struggled to stay healthy, he's operated in poorly-coached offenses, and the offensive line has been an insult to anyone who has eyes and has the misfortune of watching a Seahawks game.

The transition to new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could alleviate at least one of these issues. Kubiak operated a run-heavy offense with the Saints in 2024 that heavily utilized running back Alvin Kamara as a receiving weapon out of the backfield.

Last year the Seattle Seahawks had the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the league. All while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf played through injury. SEA's new OC, Klint Kubiak, passed at a way lower rate in 2024. He's a super run-heavy OC. Bad news for Jaxon Smith-Njigba pic.twitter.com/VPHtCKKVAf

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 27, 2025

Kubiak's offense passed the ball at a Pass Rate Over Expectation of 6.9 percent, lower than last year's Seattle offense. Walker is the lead back in Seattle, so he should benefit a lot from this. In addition, he's much more athletic than backup Zach Charbonnet and handles most of the pass-catching duties.

What stands out about Walker is how elusive he is. Otherwise, he probably wouldn't be featured as a sleeper. Walker checked in with a 0.29 missed tackles forced per touch last season, which was tied for 2nd in the NFL among running backs with 100 or more touches.

Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025

This would have translated into more production on the ground if the Seahawks had a better offensive line and if their OC last season had tried to commit to the run game and design good run schemes. Neither of these things happened, obviously, so Walker produced very inconsistently.

While Charbonnet had a few big games, he was a bit more fortunate with finding space and facing softer teams in run defense. Walker has a habit of not always following his blocks, while Charbonnet tends to run the plays by the book, so that could be an issue with Walker.

But consistently, we see good offensive coordinators help their best athletes rack up big fantasy numbers. Walker ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, and once ran over 22 miles per hour on a touchdown run. He could get an uptick in receiving work and be able to thrive in space as a result, and rack up PPR numbers as well.

These jukes by Kenneth Walker 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/ZLjHb0kikM

— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) June 28, 2025

A repeat of Walker's rookie season, or something close to it, could happen in a best-case scenario, and the underlying elusiveness data suggests that's a strong possibility.

Sleeper: Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings

Though Mason's ADP has risen markedly since his trade to the Vikings, he's still worth taking a look at. In non-PPR leagues, Mason could be absolute dynamite as Minnesota's primary early-down and goal-line running back. He was fantastic at forcing missed tackles in the games he started last season.

Per touch, he averaged 0.21 missed tackles in 2024, despite not having the starting job for the full season, and being thrust into a workhorse role with the absence of running back Christian McCaffrey. And at one point, he was a top-10 running back in the league in fantasy points scored.

Jordan Mason pic.twitter.com/VCoeDQeoRK

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 21, 2025

Mason looks a lot like a slightly less elusive version of Conner on film, which is impressive. It's already well-known that he should take away touches from RB Aaron Jones Sr., but in case you aren't sure, take a look at how bad Jones was in crucial situations last season.

Aaron Jones in 2025:

-Inside the 10-yard line: 0.3 yards per carry
-Inside the 5-yard line: -0.2 yards per carry

Jones was awful in these short yardage situations. Mason should have at least 8 rush TDs in 2025.

Stay away from Jones in fantasy in 2025.https://t.co/k1hYDOY9Y2 pic.twitter.com/0Q4RzA6nNG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) April 6, 2025

Jones should remain the primary pass-catching back for the Vikings, a role in which he could still thrive... as a player. But on the Vikings' fantastic offense, which is often in position to score, we could see Mason log eight or more touchdowns. He could be an awesome flex player.

Bust: Braelon Allen, New York Jets

Sure, the New York Jets have indicated that they'd like to use a committee backfield for 2025. And RB Breece Hall had a disappointing year last year. The problem with assuming that Allen will get a lot more volume is that it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Neither Allen nor Davis had the kind of elite play on film that Hall put up before his oddly sluggish 2024 season. Allen, in particular, wasn't elusive in the slightest -- he averaged just 0.12 forced missed tackles per touch last season. Among all running backs with 100 or more touches, that tied for third-to-last.

Love Braelon Allen. But was still a bit surprised by the split yesterday.

Snaps: Breece Hall 41-of-57, Braelon Allen 20

Routes: Breece 21-of-33, Braelon 12

Opportunities: Breece 22, Braelon 11 pic.twitter.com/nQrCWOkmW7

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024

His highlight reel consists mostly of well-blocked runs in which he was able to pick up impressive yardage. But when he's matched up with defenders in any kind of way, he hardly can make them miss more than 10 percent of the time.

It's no surprise, then, that he averaged just above 3.6 yards per carry. He'll likely mostly be used to take the load off of Hall's shoulders next season, and not much else.

Potential Bust: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

The reason I say "potential bust" here is that it's likely that Rams' head coach Sean McVay could just keep handing Williams the ball a million times per game and be fine with it. But it's possible that things could change this season.

Sure, the team spent a third-round pick on RB Blake Corum last season, and many believed he was essentially a faster version of Williams. Therein, sort of, lies the problem -- both Corum and Williams were inefficient last year, and were especially non-elusive.

Among RBs with 75+ touches in 2024, the least elusive were:

-Kyren Williams (same as Javonte Williams)
-Travis Etienne Aaron Jones, Braelon Allen
-Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco

Target Jarquez Hunter, Bhayshul Tuten, Jordan Mason, and Brashard Smith. Braelon isn't good. pic.twitter.com/M68GYpCS6U

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) July 1, 2025

Williams, in particular, forced the same rate of missed tackles as Dallas Cowboys running back Javonte Williams, who played with the Denver Broncos last season, and was awful. Interestingly, had J. Williams played with the Rams and K. Williams with the Broncos, we could see pretty opposite narratives spun.

K. Williams, despite being great for fantasy football last season, didn't have good film, was highly inefficient, and had exactly zero rushing yards over expectation all season. He had one of the league's worst explosive play rates. He pretty much never got more yardage than the offensive schemes set up for him.

Rams RBs in their 2024 seasons...

Kyren Williams❌
+ 0.13 MTF/Att (49th/70 RBs)
+ 1.9% explosive % (57th)
+ 4.65 40

Blake Corum❌
+ 0.14 MTF/Att (40th/70 RBs)
+ 0% explosive % (70th)
+ 4.53 40
---
JARQUEZ HUNTER✅
+ 0.32 MTF/Att (5th/32 RBs)
+ 12.4% explosive % (3rd)
+ 4.40 40

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) May 2, 2025

It's possible, and not unlikely, that Los Angeles hates how they have one of the worst explosive-play rushing attacks in the league, and drafted Hunter because he could provide the explosive plays, was a lot faster, and was a great tackle-breaker.

Hunter is one of my biggest breakout candidates and a huge steal in dynasty drafts. His upside is massive, and he might simply be better than Williams in his first season. If not this year, he could have a massive 2026 season and be the Rams' RB of the future.

You should probably trade away Williams while you can.

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