May 16, 2021

Eli Grabanski previews the 2021 Jacksonville Jaguars' coaching staff in search of buy-lows, fantasy football sleepers, and risers based on play-calling and historical data.

After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.

One team that shook up their coaching staff this offseason was the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars fired head coach Doug Marrone, offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and defensive coordinator Todd Wash to bring in Urban Meyer as the new head coach, Darrell Bevell as the new offensive coordinator, and Joe Cullen as the new defensive coordinator.

This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Jacksonville Jaguars players' fantasy values in it.

The Baseline

To get a better understanding of the value the Jaguars coaches bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of offensive statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Jaguars' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:

QB Impact

RB Impact

WR Impact

TE Impact

Defense Impact

Previous Coaching Staff

In order to get an understanding of how the Jaguars fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the Jacksonville Jaguars previous coaching staff: former head coach Doug Marrone, former offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and former defensive coordinator Todd Wash. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.

Former Head Coach: Doug Marrone

The Jaguars will be moving on from Doug Marrone in 2021. Marrone came from an offensive background, spending time as the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator (2006-2008), Buffalo Bills head coach (2013-2014), and Jacksonville Jaguars head coach (2016-2020). Below are some of his team's offensive statistics during his time as an NFL offensive coordinator and head coach.

QB Impact

RB Impact

WR Impact

TE Impact

Former Offensive Coordinator: Jay Gruden

Besides Doug Marrone, the Jaguars will also be moving on from offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Gruden's background includes time as the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator (2011-2013), the Washington Football Team head coach (2014-2019), and the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator (2020). Below are some of his team's offensive statistics during his time as an NFL offensive coordinator and head coach.

QB Impact

RB Impact

WR Impact

TE Impact

Former Defensive Coordinator: Todd Wash

Todd Wash spent five seasons as the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator (2016-2020). Below are some of his team's defensive statistics during his time as an NFL defensive coordinator.

2021 Offense

2021 Head Coach: Urban Meyer

The Jacksonville Jaguars made a splash in the coaching hiring cycle, bringing in one of the greatest college football coaches of all time to be their new head coach - Urban Meyer. Meyer is one of just three head coaches to win a major college football national championship at two different universities, but this will be his first year coaching at the NFL level. While the expectation is that Meyer will let offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell call the plays on offense this year, Meyer will also add his own wrinkles to it. Let's take a look at some of Urban Meyer's college offensive statistics from his time as a head coach at Bowling Green (2001-2002), Utah (2003-2004), Florida (2005-2010), and Ohio State (2012-2018).

QB Impact

*College statistics include sacks as a rushing statistic

RB Impact

WR Impact

TE Impact

Urban Meyer Takeaways & Expectations

Over the 219 college games that Urban Meyer has been a head coach, there are a few things that we notice about his historical tendencies. For starters, Urban Meyer has historically had success working with mobile quarterbacks, as his QB room has averaged 14.58 carries, 60.79 rushing yards, and 0.95 rushing touchdowns per game. Trevor Lawrence has proven himself to be mobile and a pretty good runner, and while 14+ QB carries a game will definitely not happen at the NFL level, it's reasonable to assume that Lawrence will carry the ball four or five times per game and have decent rushing upside.

Looking at the skills positions, there are a few other details we notice. At running back position, we should expect the workload to be around league-average based on Meyer's career averages at the college level. Looking at his wide receivers, they've been featured a decent amount through the air, but it's fair to assume the efficiency will likely drop quite a bit at the NFL level. Jumping to his tight ends, Meyer didn't really feature them in the passing game during his college coaching days and given the Jaguars roster it seems unlikely that his team will do so in the NFL.

The final major takeaway from Urban Meyer's college coaching career is that he's had great success using 'gadget' players - like Percy Harvin, Trey Burton, or Curtis Samuel. This should get you excited about how he may plan on deploying a player like Laviska Shenault Jr. on offense, and could make Shenault a bit of a sleeper in fantasy drafts.

Now that we've looked at Urban Meyer's profile a little bit, let's examine the Jaguars offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and his historical tendencies.

2021 Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell

Darrell Bevell has been a long-time offensive coordinator in the NFL, spending time in the role with the Minnesota Vikings (2006-2010), Seattle Seahawks (2011-2017), and Detroit Lions (2019-2020) before joining Urban Meyer's coaching staff in Jacksonville this past offseason.

QB Impact

RB Impact

WR Impact

TE Impact

Darrell Bevell Takeaways & Expectations

Over the course of his career, Bevell has had some mixed levels of success with his quarterbacks. Early in his career, he ran more a run-heavy offense since he was dealing with quarterbacks like Brad Johnson, Tarvaris Jackson, and Gus Frerotte, but as time has gone on he's been fortunate enough to call plays for star quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford. Despite having the talent of Wilson and Stafford over the last nine seasons, his offense has still finished just topped out in the middle of the pack of the league in pass attempts at 571 (2019). It is unlikely that Bevell changes from his previous ways for Trevor Lawrence's rookie year, so expect lower/middle-of-the-pack passing numbers and usage.

It's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can be a cheat code in the fantasy football world. Over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Bevell's quarterback room has averaged 4.23 carries per game.

Based on the QB carries graph above, Bevell's quarterback will use their legs frequently if they are fairly mobile (like Russell Wilson). Because of this trend and Lawrence's own mobility, we can expect Lawrence to bring some fantasy value on the ground in the form of roughly four or five carries per game. From a fantasy perspective, Lawrence should be valued somewhere in the low QB1/high QB2 range.

Examining Darrell Bevell's running back rooms, he's done a pretty good job utilizing and getting production out of the group. Over the course of the 223 games he's been an offensive coordinator, his running back room has averaged 0.76 rushing touchdowns per game which is slightly above-average. In addition, his running backs have received 23.83 carries per game over this time which is also above-average.

Clearly, Bevell's running back room will get a decent number of carries in Jacksonville. But in terms of the distribution of carries, how often is it going to one player versus Bevell conducting a running back by committee approach?

While Bevell used a bell-cow approach to the running back position early on in his career when he was calling plays for Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch, since 2015 it's been a different story. A lack of talent and injuries to his backfield may have played a factor in Bevell taking more of a running back by committee approach in recent years, with his lead back receiving under 50% of the season running back carries in each of the last five seasons he's been a play-caller. Based on his talent, James Robinson warrants receiving higher than 50% of the season carries, but with Travis Etienne in the mix expect a dropoff from the 85.4% of the 281 season running back carries he received last year.

The final aspect we should look at concerning Darrell Bevell's running backs is how much he has traditionally utilized them in the passing game. Over the course of his career, Bevell's running back room has averaged 5.69 targets per game which is below average. Considering former head coach Doug Marrone (8.68 running back targets per game over the course of his coaching career) is gone, we should expect there to be fewer receiving opportunities for the Jacksonville backs than the 7.06 targets per game they saw in 2020.

Overall, the Jaguars running backs should see an increase in carries per game, a decrease in the percentage of carries to the lead back, and a decrease in targets per game. Based on all of this information, running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne will likely be in a full-blown committee for most of the 2021 season, and to eat into each other's value.

Looking at the wide receiver position, Bevell has provided his wide receivers with 17.86 targets per game over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator. This is lower than the career per-game averages of the Jaguars previous head coach, Doug Marrone (20.49), and the Jaguars previous offensive coordinator Jay Gruden (20.38).

So while the quarterback change from Gardner Minshew and Mike Glennon to number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence will result in an increase in efficiency, keep in mind the Jaguars wide receiver room is unlikely to build upon the workload they received in 2020.

Finally, the way that Bevell has utilized the tight end position has had an interesting arc. While over the course of his career his tight ends had averaged just 6.28 targets per game, it's important to note that he has utilized the position more over his last five years as an offensive coordinator.

This trend probably has more to do with the tight end talent he's had during these years with players like Jimmy Graham, T.J. Hockenson, and Logan Thomas than a full heel turn in offensive philosophy, but it is something to keep an eye on. Looking at the Jaguars current roster, trading away tight end Josh Oliver to the Baltimore Ravens could be a signal that the team will be minimizing their usage of the position in the passing game and Bevell will be returning to the pre-2015 levels of usage his team's have had for targeting the position. And if the usage is similar to the pre-2015 levels, none of the Jaguars tight ends will be draftable in fantasy football leagues for 2021.

Fantasy Relevant Players: Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, James Robinson, Travis Etienne, Carlos Hyde, Chris Thompson, D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr., Dede Westbrook, Phillip Dorsett, Collin Johnson, Jalen Camp, Luke Farrell, and James O'Shaughnessy

2021 Defense

2021 Defensive Coordinator: Joe Cullen

Joe Cullen has been a defensive line coach in the NFL for a long-time. He has some previous experience as a defensive coordinator at the college level with Richmond (1997-1998, 2000) and Indiana (2004, but 2021 will be the first time he will step into the role at an NFL level. Cullen has worked under the defensive minds of Jack Del Rio, Lovie Smith, Leslie Frazier, Dean Pees, and Don Martindale over the course of his career, so there's almost assuredly going to be some bits and pieces he'll pull from their defensive philosophies. Overall, Cullen should be an upgrade on Todd Wash's defense that gave up 30.75 points per game last year, but looking at the roster the Jaguars D/ST still needs a lot of work and will probably not improve enough to be fantasy relevant in 2021.

Other Notable Assistants

Special Teams Coordinator: Brian Schneider - Brian Schneider has a ton of experience as a special teams coordinator dating all the way back to 1994. He was most recently the Seattle Seahawks special teams coordinator (2010-2020).

QB Coach: Brian Schottenheimer - In addition to being the passing game coordinator of the team, Brian Schottenheimer is set to be the Jaguars quarterbacks coach in 2021. An offensive coordinator for many years with the New York Jets (2006-2011), St. Louis Rams (2012-2014), and Seattle Seahawks (2018-2020), Schottenheimer has previously been a quarterbacks coach for Washington (2001), San Diego (2002-2005), and Indianapolis (2016-2017).

RB Coach: Bernie Parmalee - Bernie Parmalee has been a running backs coach for the Miami Dolphins (2004), Oakland Raiders (2015-2017) and the Atlanta Falcons (2018, 2020). He is a former NFL RB who played for the Miami Dolphins (1992-1998) and the New York Jets (1999-2000).

WR Coach: Sanjay Lal - Sanjay Lal has been a wide receivers coach in the NFL since 2007, spending time coaching the position with the Oakland Raiders (2007-2011), New York Jets (2012-2014), Buffalo Bills (2015-2016), Indianapolis Colts (2017), Dallas Cowboys (2018-2019), and Seattle Seahawks (2020).

TE Coach: Tyler Bowen - 2021 will be Tyler Bowen's first year coaching in the NFL. He previously was the co-offensive coordinator & tight ends coach at Penn State.

OL Coach: George Warhop - George Warhop was one of the few coaches that was retained from Doug Marrone's coaching staff. Warhop has a very experienced offensive line coach, previously spending time with the St. Louis Rams (1996-1997), Arizona Cardinals (1998-2002), Dallas Cowboys (2003-2004), San Francisco 49ers (2005-2008), Cleveland Browns (2009-2013), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2014-2018).

DL Coach: Tosh Lupoi - 2021 will be Tosh Lupoi's first year with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has most recently spent time as the defensive line coach for the Cleveland Browns (2019) and the Atlanta Falcons (2020).

OLB Coach: Zachary Orr - Zachary Orr was a linebacker for the Baltimore Ravens who was an AP All-Pro in 2016 before his playing career ended because of congenital neck/spine condition. This is his first year coaching for the Jacksonville Jaguars after spending the last few years as a defensive analyst for the Baltimore Ravens (2017-2020).

ILB Coach: Charlie Strong - Charlie Strong spent 38 years coaching college football prior to joining the Jacksonville Jaguars this year. Strong will also be the assistant head coach for the team.

Secondary Coach (Corners): Tim Walton - Tim Walton has been a cornerbacks coach with the Jacksonville Jaguars since 2019. He previously spent time as the Detroit Lions defensive backs coach (2009-2012), the St. Louis Rams defensive coordinator (2013), and the New York Giants cornerbacks coach (2015-2017).

DB Coach (Safeties): Chris Ash - Chris Ash has spent a long time coaching at the college football level, but this will be his first year coaching in the NFL. He was most recently the defensive coordinator and safeties coach at Texas University.

Secondary (Safeties): Joe Danna - Joe Danna has been working with the Jacksonville Jaguars secondary in various roles since he got hired in 2017. He has also spent time working for the Atlanta Falcons (2008-2009, 2012-2014), Miami Dolphins (2010-2011), and New York Jets (2015-2016).

Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles

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