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Fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season. Martin Grisko lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
As we dive into Week 5 of the fantasy football season, it’s time to reassess your roster and make some strategic moves. The season's first quarter has given us valuable insights, providing a clear picture of who might be undervalued or overvalued. Identifying buy-low and sell-high targets is crucial, whether you're looking to bolster your squad for a playoff push or aiming to improve your lineup.
In this ever-changing landscape, some players have seen their value fluctuate due to inconsistent performances or external factors, such as quarterback changes or offensive scheme shifts. Conversely, others have proven their worth, making them prime candidates to trade away while their stock is high. This week, we’ll explore several players who fit the bill as potential buy-low and sell-high targets.
By capitalizing on these opportunities, you can strengthen your roster and improve your chances of success as the season progresses. Understanding market dynamics can lead to significant gains, whether you’re a contender looking to maintain your edge or a rebuilding team eager to invest in future stars. Let’s look at the players you should consider targeting or trading this week.
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Fantasy Football Buy-Low Trade Targets
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr., a rookie from LSU, was initially seen by many as a dark-horse candidate to emerge as the top fantasy football wide receiver in the 2024 draft class. Now is the time to target the Jaguars rookie in trades ahead of Week 5. Thomas is coming off a strong performance, capturing a 28% target share.
In his last game, he turned that usage into 99 yards on six catches, including a touchdown. Thomas has consistently received nine targets in back-to-back weeks. Despite Trevor Lawrence sitting at 32nd in the league in completion percentage, Thomas continues to make an impact.
Wide receivers who have created the most separation (every route is charted) vs. man coverage in 2024:
(Source: @FantasyPtsData's Average Separation Score)
1. Christian Kirk
2. Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. Rome Odunze
4. Mike Evans
5. Brian Thomas Jr.
6. Brandon Aiyuk
7. Elijah Moore… pic.twitter.com/NDvF0rl2RE— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 2, 2024
The connection between Thomas and Lawrence seems poised to blossom. He has accounted for 27% of the team’s air yards and 21.5% of their targets. As this is Thomas’s first season, there’s a good chance he will evolve into a more dependable option for Lawrence, especially as the quarterback navigates his early season struggles.
With two top-20 finishes at the position already under his belt, acquiring Thomas before Week 5 is crucial. He faces an excellent matchup against the Colts, who have allowed over 300 passing yards in consecutive games against the Bears and Steelers.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
This may be your last chance to acquire George Pickens at a reasonable price. The Cowboys defense could be missing its top two pass-rushers, with DeMarcus Lawrence on injured reserve and Micah Parsons likely out. This scenario should give Justin Fields more time in the pocket, creating an excellent opportunity for Pickens to shine.
After delivering his best fantasy performance of the season, where he caught seven passes on 11 targets for 113 yards, Pickens is poised for further success. The only thing missing from that strong outing was a touchdown, but he demonstrated his potential when the team needed to throw the ball more.
Some players with higher open scores in 2024 than in 2023:
Stefon Diggs (69 in 2023 --> 84 in 2024)
Nico Collins (57 --> 83)
Chris Olave (75 --> 82)
George Pickens (70 --> 79)
Jaylen Waddle (67 --> 76)
Elijah Moore (62 --> 74)
DeVonta Smith (49 --> 71)
Dontayvion Wicks (55 -->… https://t.co/qW5EVRKGEL pic.twitter.com/mWUPILrILk— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 2, 2024
Pickens ranks third in targets and first in yards among wide receivers without a touchdown in 2024. While he faces scrutiny following a costly fumble that impacted scoring opportunities, these challenges may create an opening to snag him from a rival manager’s roster.
With trade rumors about a potential move for Davante Adams to the Steelers, now is the ideal time to target Pickens while his owner may be feeling uncertain. His recent fumble and history of struggling with criticism present hurdles, but using these factors to your advantage could help you buy low before he breaks out.
RB Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
Due to not finishing as a top-20 running back in any week this season, the sentiment around Josh Jacobs is surprisingly low. However, his production has been quite solid, with standout games of 104 and 151 total yards already under his belt. The primary concern is his lack of touchdowns, as he has yet to find the end zone through four games.
Jacobs has been actively involved in the passing game, recording four catches on six targets last week, bringing his total to nine targets in two games with Jordan Love. This is noteworthy, especially considering he received only one target in two games with mobile quarterback Malik Willis.
Another factor contributing to the negativity surrounding Jacobs is the emergence of backup Emanuel Wilson, who played over 40% of the snaps last week and has shown promise. However, Jacobs remains the lead back, handling 61% of the snaps and 64% of the backfield opportunities in Week 5.
He’s performing well, averaging five yards per touch this season. Consider trading for him before he faces the Rams in Week 5, who allow the most rushing yards per game. When Love is under center, Jacobs faces stacked boxes on just one of his 26 carries. The touchdowns are bound to come.
Fantasy Football Sell-High Trade Targets
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is no longer the elite fantasy asset he used to be, and his performance since mid-2023 has made him droppable in 12-team leagues.
After yet another lackluster showing in Week 4, Mahomes has managed just one top-12 weekly finish in his last 13 outings and hasn’t cracked the top six since Week 7 of 2023. He'd likely be available on waivers if he weren’t named Patrick Mahomes.
Despite his struggles, Mahomes is a player you can trade based on his name recognition alone. He remains a superstar and a marquee player in the NFL, but his current production is below replacement level, meaning you can easily find comparable options on the waiver wire.
Patrick Mahomes has failed to hit 21.0 fantasy points in 13 straight games. Here are some QBs with more:
Josh Allen: 9
Lamar Jackson: 7
Brock Purdy: 6
Joshua Dobbs: 5
Derek Carr: 4
Desmond Ridder: 3
Russell Wilson: 2
Bryce Young: 1— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 1, 2024
The situation has worsened, with Rashee Rice expected to miss significant time, possibly the entire season. Rice had become Mahomes’ primary target and heavily featured in the offense, especially with starting running back Isiah Pacheco sidelined by injury.
While it’s possible for Mahomes to bounce back, he faces two tough matchups ahead, along with a bye week in between, which makes him more likely to be a roster clogger until at least Week 8. Now is the time to trade him while he still has some value.
RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
D’Andre Swift managers were given a golden opportunity in Week 4 after three disappointing performances to start the season, making this the perfect time to sell high. Facing the Los Angeles Rams, who rank dead last in rushing yards allowed per game, Swift took advantage of the favorable matchup for a breakout game.
However, Roschon Johnson has been encroaching on Swift's opportunities. Last week, Johnson rushed seven times for 26 yards and scored a touchdown on one of his two red-zone chances. The two split carries in the first half, six to four in favor of Johnson.
Swift's role doesn’t seem to be expanding; he still comes off the field on third downs and isn’t utilized at the goal line. The Bears offensive line is unlikely to improve as the season progresses, further limiting Swift's effectiveness.
While Swift's involvement in the passing game last week was encouraging, it is more of an anomaly than a trend. He posted a 30% target share, which resulted in seven targets for 72 yards in Week 4. In contrast, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze collectively managed a 52% target share, totaling just six receptions and 51 yards.
Analyzing advanced metrics from the first three weeks, Swift was arguably one of the least effective running backs in the NFL, particularly in yards after and before contact. Capitalize on his strong week and trade him while you can. Although he has some favorable matchups ahead, there’s a high chance he could revert to his earlier struggles.
RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Aaron Jones recently delivered a solid performance against his former team, the Green Bay Packers, racking up 22 carries for 93 yards, though he didn’t find the end zone in his much-anticipated revenge game.
He also caught four of five targets for 46 yards, representing an 18% target share. The Vikings tried to involve Jones more against his old team, as he played a substantial 82% of the snaps.
Ty Chandler had a minimal impact, with only three carries for five yards, but any reduction in Jones' usage is noteworthy. Chandler's snap count increased to 12%, a change from his role in the previous three weeks. Expect Chandler’s involvement to grow as the season progresses.
Yards before & after contact per attempt per @FantasyPtsData
- Two highest paid free agent RBs in Barkley and Henry having career seasons
- Chuba Hubbard is smashing with his workload
- Not looking great for Breece Hall and Achane
- Don't let him fool you Swift is still bad pic.twitter.com/WZNgxGSP7m— Chris Wecht (@ChrisWechtFF) October 1, 2024
Selling Jones isn’t a reflection of his talent; it’s more of a proactive move before he potentially breaks down as the season wears on. Currently, he’s on pace for over 300 touches, which is concerning given that he has never exceeded 285 touches in a season.
With a demanding upcoming schedule (Jets, bye, Lions), now is an opportune time to sell high. Jones' value may worsen, and trading away an aging, injury-prone running back makes strategic sense. Despite having over 100 total yards in three of his four games, it’s wise to capitalize on his current role in the Vikings offense while interest is high.
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