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Corbin's top fantasy football wide receiver sleepers, draft values and upside picks for 2026. His favorite WR3 picks with upside in fantasy football drafts.
Most fantasy football leagues have flex positions, allowing players to choose from a running back, a wide receiver, and a tight end. In formats where players are rewarded for receptions and receiving points, we aim to secure the flex position, typically held by a receiver. Sometimes, receivers being priced as a WR3 and beyond, meaning WR36 or lower in Average Draft Position (ADP), might lack upside or have situation and talent concerns.
Assuming leagues with three WR and multiple flex spots, these players should be prioritized in the middle rounds of drafts. Unlike the running back position, it's hard to find late-round values on wide receivers because of the league-wide trends and teams using heavy personnel.
We'll examine the players' usage, underlying metrics, and situation to figure out why we should queue up these WR3s in Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) ADP, who could outperform their draft position and provide week-winning performances for a wide receiver or flex spot.
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DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers
FFPC ADP: 97, WR37
With the Steelers, Metcalf ran more horizontally breaking routes last season. He ran horizontally breaking routes 21.9% of the time (2024), which jumped to 34.1% (2025). Unfortunately, Metcalf was brutally inefficient with a 1.36 yards per route run (2025), similar to 2024 (1.33) with the Seahawks on horizontally breaking routes.
Typically, horizontally breaking routes tend to generate more yards per route (1.83) than vertically breaking routes (1.67), with the potential for more fantasy points. Metcalf continued to earn a high rate of targets (21%) on his vertically breaking routes, though he had negative Average Separation Scores on both route types.
The Steelers overhauled their coaching staff this season. With Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator, they used 13-Personnel at the second-highest rate while ranking second in EPA. Meanwhile, they deployed 12-Personnel at the 14th-highest rate while ranking 26th in EPA and passing at the second-highest rate.
There's a good chance those heavy personnel trends change since the Cowboys used 11-Personnel at the 10th-highest rate in 2024 under Mike McCarthy. The Steelers used 11-Personnel at the 31st-highest rate while passing at the second-highest percentage last season.
McCarthy has Brian Angelichio as the Steelers' offensive coordinator, who was the Tight Ends/Pass Game Coordinator with the Vikings from 2022 to 2025. The Vikings deployed 11-Personnel at the 10th-highest rate while passing 68.3% (No. 13), yet they were inefficient (No. 29 in EPA). McCarthy and Angelichio will probably use more 11-Personnel this season.
If the Steelers deploy more 11-Personnel, Metcalf should be the top option. That's evident in Metcalf garnering a 19% target rate, 28.3% of the air yards, and a 22.9% first-read target share while producing 1.99 yards per route run in 11-Personnel. However, if they use more heavy personnel, Metcalf was efficient with an air yards share over 51% last season.
The visual below shows the Steelers' pass catchers in 11-, 12-, and 13-Personnel last season.
Though Metcalf's separation fell off against man coverage last season, he produced better against zone coverage (2.40 yards per route run) while earning more targets (26%). Metcalf still has the juice to win and separate against man coverage, so there's a good chance those numbers regress this season.
There has been positive coachspeak via McCarthy about Metcalf being a focal point in this offense, with the potential to move him around the formation. Metcalf often ran a route out wide 78.8% of the time (2025), down from 87.1% (2024). It's a small sample, but Metcalf had 2.25 yards per route run and a 15% target rate out of the slot in 2024, which dipped to 1.24 yards per route and a 17% target rate in 2025.
Summary
With the Steelers adding Michael Pittman Jr. and Germie Bernard, it should mean Metcalf won't have corners and safeties shaded to his side of the field. Metcalf ran the 8th-highest percentage of his routes when he wasn't open. He ranked 58th in yards per route run (2.25), 16th in first-read target share (34.6%), and 23rd in expected fantasy points per game when he wasn't open or wide open.
Lean into the uncertainty with Metcalf because he can be a WR3 with WR2-type upside this season.
Josh Downs, WR, Colts
FFPC ADP: 111.7, WR42
The fantasy community continues to show love for Downs. With Pittman gone, theoretically Downs should see his stock rise. Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen has been talking about Downs's ability to play in the slot and outside. Over the past two seasons, Downs played in the slot over 80% of the time.
The visual below shows the Colts' pass catchers who ran a route over 50% of the time over the past two seasons.
Unfortunately, Downs saw his numbers fall last season, with the addition of Tyler Warren, so maybe that's more of a concern this season. That's evident in Downs's route share falling by 10 points (62.8%), with his yards per route run (1.59) and first-read target share (19.4%) dropping last season.
The visual below shows the Colts' pass catchers against man and zone coverage.
Downs continues to be a strong separator against man and zone coverage, though he was slightly less efficient against man last season. Specifically, Downs's yards per route run (1.16) against man coverage dropped from 2024 (2.49). However, it's notable that Downs runs a high percentage of his routes against man coverage, hinting they trust him in key situations.
Last season, the Colts ran 11-Personnel at the 12th-highest rate. In 11-Personnel, Downs ran a route on 87.2% of the team's dropbacks. Downs rocked a 25.8% first-read target share, matching Pittman (26.1%) in 11-Personnel. Meanwhile, the Colts ran 12-Personnel at the 13th-highest rate and ranked first in EPA. Downs didn't run a route in 12-Personnel.
Summary
If the coachspeak aligns with reality and Downs plays in 12-Personnel more often this season, his route and target volume will skyrocket. There's a good chance that Warren and Downs will be the two primary pass catchers, with Alec Pierce staying in that big-play, downfield role.
We want to bet on receivers like Downs priced as a WR3 or WR4, as we project a higher route percentage, plus the ability to separate and produce against man and zone coverage.
Jayden Reed, WR, Packers
FFPC ADP: 118.4, WR44
The Packers were one of six teams last season with zero pass catchers (WR/TE) with a 75% route rate. Romeo Doubs was the only Packers' pass catcher with a route percentage above 70% in Weeks 1-18. They often rotated through multiple receivers, causing headaches for fantasy managers.
The visual below shows the receiving advanced stats for the Packers' pass catchers.
Tucker Kraft (69.3%) and Christian Watson (68%) were close behind, yet had route percentages under 70%. Like Downs earlier, Reed's route rate dipped from 69.3% (2024) to 52.6% (2025). He was primarily deployed in the slot again (73.6%), making us wonder if or when the Packers will use him more in two-receiver sets without Dontayvion Wicks and Doubs.
The Packers ranked fourth in EPA while using 11-Personnel at the 22nd-highest rate. They have been similarly efficient, ranking fifth in EPA when deploying 12-Personnel, which they use at the fifth-highest rate. Reed posted a team-high 77.3% route percentage with a 1.90 yards per route run in 11-Personnel. However, he ran one route in 12-Personnel.
Summary
Reed continues to have above-average separation scores, with a higher yards per route run (1.63) in 2025 than 2024 (1.13) against man coverage. Though Reed's efficiency took a step back last season, there's a good chance he runs more routes with fewer pass catchers involved.
We could explain Reed's lower usage and efficiency on his broken collarbone injury in Week 2. Since Reed entered the league, he ranks tied for third in fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G) behind Puka Nacua and Brandon Aiyuk, yet only 8.6 expected fantasy points per game (EP/G).
It would be logical for the Packers to run their passing offense through Watson, Kraft, and Reed, though Reed may continue to play in 11-Personnel instead of two-receiver sets. Reed has WR2-type upside priced beyond a WR3.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Commanders
FFPC ADP: 140.5, WR50
Since Diggs signed with the Commanders, we've seen his average draft position jump to 118.2, WR46. That's a jump of over 20 picks in drafts, though the fantasy market still values Diggs as a WR3 or WR4. Diggs was recovering from a torn ACL last offseason heading into 2025, who produced as WR25 with the Patriots.
The Patriots deployed Diggs out wide (45.9%) and in the slot (53.9%), making him a versatile asset for the Commanders. He likely fills the slot role that Deebo Samuel Sr. vacated, who ran a route in the slot on 64.8% of the team's dropbacks.
Diggs commanded a 22.1% first-read target share, leading the Patriots while being surprisingly efficient. That's evident in Diggs's 2.53 yards per route run and generating a first down on 12.7% of his routes. Twelve pass catchers averaged 2.50 yards per route run and a 10% first down per route last season.
The visual below shows the pass catchers who met those thresholds.
The other players who averaged 2.50 yards per route and created a first down in 10% of their routes include Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kincaid, Luther Burden III, Tyreek Hill, Watson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Greg Dulcich, Drake London, Zay Flowers, and Kraft.
Diggs showed he can separate well, with an above-average separation score overall and against man coverage. Among pass catchers with a 2.50 yards per route run or higher, Diggs ranked ninth in Average Separation Score against man coverage last season. That suggests Diggs can produce and separate against man coverage, showing there's still plenty of juice left in the tank.
There have been talks about new Offensive Coordinator David Blough having Jayden Daniels more under center this season. For context, the Commanders ranked last in pass plays under center. If Daniels is under center more often, there's a chance their play action passes can be more efficient, which helps Terry McLaurin and Diggs.
Summary
It's hard to know what type of personnel usage Blough will deploy as their offensive coordinator, but we expect the Commanders to be a more exciting passing offense heading into 2026. Diggs goes from playing on the second-most efficient offense in EPA per play to the 16th-best one this season.
However, we're one season removed from Daniels's rookie season, when the Commanders ranked fourth in EPA per play. In Diggs' healthy games over the past two seasons, he produced as a WR1 or WR2 in 44% of his games. Assuming the market doesn't outprice Diggs on a new team, he should be a potential value pick, even with the rising price.
Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills
FFPC ADP: 146.9, WR53
Over the last two seasons, Shakir has finished as WR37 (2024) and WR43 (2025) in fantasy points per game in points-per-reception leagues. Shakir ranked sixth in Receiver Air Yard Conversion Ratio (RACR) in each of the past two seasons, meaning he has been efficient in converting his air yards into production.
Among receivers with 100 targets over the past two seasons, he ranks third behind DeMario Douglas and Rashee Rice in RACR. Unsurprisingly, Shakir, Rice, and Douglas have an air yards per target (AY/T) under 5.0, meaning they're used in the short areas of the field.
That coincides with Shakir's catchable target rate of 84.5% (2024) and 89% (2025) while being tied to a quarterback in Josh Allen, who ranks ninth in Completion Rate Over Expectation (CPOE) and second in catchable target rate (79.2%). Shakir ranked 19th in yards after the catch per reception (7.22) in 2025 and 14th (8.09) in 2024. If a receiver garners a low air yards per target, we want them to be like Shakir, Rice, or Deebo Samuel, who create yards after the catch.
Pass volume can be an issue because the Bills ranked third in neutral game script rush percentage over the past two seasons. That ties them with the Packers (49%) while trailing the Eagles (52%) and Ravens (52%). With Joe Brady moving from the Bills' offensive coordinator to head coach, expect those trends to continue this season.
The visual below shows the teams sorted by the highest neutral script rush percentage across 2024 and 2025.
The Bills used 11-Personnel at the 13th-highest rate while ranking third in EPA last season. They acquired veteran DJ Moore for a second-round pick, giving the Bills depth at the receiver position after rotating Josh Palmer, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Gabe Davis, and Keon Coleman on the outside.
Shakir and Moore operate in different areas of the field. Specifically, Shakir ran horizontally breaking routes 41.6% of the time, with Moore at 36.8%. That said, Moore ran vertically breaking routes over 36% of the time over the past two seasons with the Bears, while Shakir hardly ran vertically breaking routes (17.1%).
Summary
Moore, Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid should be the focal points of the Bills' passing offense. Though Shakir lacks the touchdown upside, he has been the first read on 24-25% of his targets over the past two seasons. He provides the floor of a WR3, with 25% of his games as a WR1 or WR2 over the past two seasons.
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