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WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 10

DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Welcome to Week 10 of the WR/CB Matchup chart. As the season progresses, the chart becomes more predictive. Last week the chart was particularly effective in terms of downgrading WRs who would go on to disappoint. Amari Cooper was a chalky play in DFS, but the chart did not like his matchup. He had a rough game, as did Mike Williams, A.J. Brown, Kadarius Toney, Bryan Edwards, Marvin Jones Jr., Tyler Boyd, and of course Robby Anderson. The one downgrade the chart got "wrong" was DeVonta Smith, but anyone paying attention to the injury report would have adjusted with both starting outside corners out for the Chargers. Another interesting piece of context from last week was the Jets RWR situation. Before researching snap count data in depth, I originally wrote about Elijah Moore's inevitable boom game as a possibility against Indy. After looking at snap counts from the week prior, I was forced to put Denzel Mims in that spot. Moore ended up playing more snaps and obviously dominating. It's a reminder that the chart is best used in conjunction with understanding context and anticipating reasonable real-life coaching strategies.

Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-v-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers, if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.

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WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.

 

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 10

 

Click image for full-screen view

 

WR/CB Matchups to Target

We start on Thursday night when the disappointing Dolphins host the Ravens. Rashod Bateman hasn't had a huge game yet without Sammy Watkins, but he has unsurprisingly looked good. The Dolphins give up the second-most fantasy PPG to opposing LWRs, so this could be his coming-out party. Keep in mind that Sammy Watkins was limited in practice this week. Even if Watkins plays, Bateman is viable.

The aforementioned Amari Cooper struggled against Denver's stout secondary last week, but this week gets one of the easiest matchups in the league in Atlanta's Fabian Moreau. It's a good bounce-back spot.

D.J. Moore has cooled off considerably after a hot start. P.J. Walker will be in at QB for the Panthers which makes him a risky bet in a plus matchup against Arizona.

D.K. Metcalf will presumably get his franchise QB back, and will also see one of the most advantageous matchups of any WR1 in the league against Kevin King and the Packers. Green Bay has drastic WR1/WR2 splits and has funneled production to WR1s all year.

The Patriots also funnel production to opposing WR1s, which for Cleveland appears to be Donovan Peoples-Jones based on alignment trends without Odell Beckham Jr. DPJ has projected target share and matchup in his favor this week against the Pats. I doubt the Pats shadow DPJ with J.C. Jackson, but that possibility obviously wouldn't be ideal.

Van Jefferson didn't do much against an improved Titans pass D last week, but he could bounce back in an easy matchup against the 49ers.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have easy matchups against the Washington Football Team's leaky pass defense. Tom Brady should have no issue dissecting one of the most disappointing units in the league.  Keep in mind that Godwin is dealing with an injury.  Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller, and Jaelon Darden all become more interesting if Godwin sits. Even with Godwin in, Johnson is viable in super deep leagues and large field DFS tournaments.

Marvin Jones Jr. has been underwhelming in a weak Jaguars passing attack, but this week gets by far the easiest RWR matchup in the league against the Colts. Trevor Lawrence hasn't been much of a fantasy factor at all, but it wouldn't be surprising if the first overall pick started to play better down the stretch.

A.J. Brown should get a matchup upgrade as the primary RWR against the Saints. However, Marshon Lattimore shadowing him is a possibility. The Saints keeping Lattimore on Julio Jones is also a possibility as I'm sure New Orleans still respects Jones, but it's a situation to monitor.

The Titans have been much better against the pass in recent weeks, but the season-long data still likes the matchup for the Saints' WRs. Tre'Quan Smith played the most slot last week, so he should see the worst of the Titans corners in slot man Elijah Molden.

There are a handful of unexciting slot WRs with easy matchups including Devin Duvernay vs. Miami, Zach Pascal vs. Jacksonville, Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Pittsburgh, and one of the biggest revenge games of all time with Adam Humphries vs. Tampa Bay.

Finally, Jerry Jeudy gets the Eagles secondary, which has funneled production to slot WRs all year.

 

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

Jaylen Waddle will be the Dolphins' top target on Thursday night against the Ravens and should receive plenty of opportunities as Miami's best receiver. Unfortunately, that will probably lead to seeing plenty of Marlon Humphrey, who can play both inside and outside.

Elijah Moore is coming off his first big week, but all Jets WRs get downgrades against the toughest matchup in the league in the Bills.

The Panthers have also been a tough matchup for opposing WRs. If DeAndre Hopkins plays, it might be a good idea to temper expectations. If he doesn't, Christian Kirk becomes viable as the projected alpha receiver, but keep in mind that his matchup is tough as well.

The Browns have been stout against slots all year. Jakobi Meyers has to luck into a TD at some point (right?) but this is a tough matchup.

DeVonta Smith is coming off his best game as a pro, but this week gets a Broncos secondary that has been stingy against WR1s all year. Standout rookie Patrick Surtain II will be out, but Smith should see a lot of Ronald Darby, who's been solid at limiting production.

The Eagles have been the best team in the league at limiting opposing outside WR production. It's bad news for the Broncos outside WRs, especially Courtland Sutton. Tim Patrick gets a downgrade as well but he's been somehow overcoming bad matchups all year.

I've mentioned this before, but one of the reasons I like doing this research and writing this article is to give exposure to CBs having big years. A.J. Terrell has been fantastic for the Falcons and this week has a marquee matchup against CeeDee Lamb. Lamb can obviously still produce, especially given how much he moves around the formation, but Terrell could give him some trouble when he lines up outside.

Tyreek Hill is obviously matchup-proof, but with a tough matchup and a sputtering Chiefs offense, this just isn't the best spot. The same goes for Mecole Hardman. Casey Hayward and Nate Hobbs have been exceptional for the Raiders.

Emmanuel Sanders draws the tough matchup with Bryce Hall and gets a downgrade. The Bills will have to adjust to all the two-deep looks teams are giving them. It might mean more running the ball which isn't great for any Buffalo receivers.

The 49ers have been tough against RWRs so Robert Woods gets a slight downgrade.

Finally, while Cooper Kupp is obviously an elite must-start, he does have a tough matchup against San Francisco, who have given up the 6th-fewest points to opposing slots this year.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.



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