Week 15 Rankings Analysis - Nick Mariano vs. Industry ECR

December 16, 2018

Nick Mariano's Week 15 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2018 NFL season. ECR comparison for running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks.

Greetings to those of you still in the playoff hunt and welcome to the weekly column that puts my rankings up on a projector and compares them against the Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). I’m currently sixth in FantasyPros accuracy competition, fighting with the industry sharks, after finishing ninth (out of 130) in 2017.

I hope this piece gives you a glimpse into my rationale for deviating from the ECR, which has led me back into the top-10 and you (hopefully) to the promised land. Don’t settle for less and hold your advice to high standards. I'll be examining my own ranks against the ECR on a position-by-position basis, focusing here on QB, RB, WR and TE.

Below you will find my rankings and analysis, separated by position. If anything strikes a chord, I’m always available for questions via Twitter: @NMariano53. But enough jibber-jabber, let’s get to it.

Week 15 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

After hating on Matt Ryan last week, I’ve got him five spots above the ECR as my No. 8 QB on the week. He’s at home and has to deal with a stingy Arizona pass defense, but he’s targeting Julio Jones with relentless intelligence and Atlanta’s run game has a great matchup but is clearly second fiddle to the passing attack.

I still have Mitch Trubisky (13 vs. 16) above the crowd, as I’m not going overreact to one bad week against a defense full of playmakers. Trubs gets to play at home against a Packers team that just gave up three TDs to the aforementioned Matt Ryan and will at least have a chance at putting up points against the Bears defense.

I’m against Cam Newton (11 vs. 9) and think less of Kirk Cousins (15 vs. 12) as well. Count myself as one who is extremely worried about Newton’s shoulder, as his intermediate throws were ugly (he should’ve had an easy touchdown to either D.J. Moore or Curtis Samuel on out routes but missed both) and his long throws were practically nonexistent. He had one deep shot to Samuel broken up and was lifted for rookie Taylor Heinicke on the Hail Mary attempt as well. His injury also seems to make him less trigger-happy on running, as he hasn’t found paydirt in five straight weeks.

Then there’s Russell Wilson (12 vs. 8), who is in a green-light spot against San Francisco’s middling defense but once again, my worry is volume. Those fears came to life this past Monday night, as Seattle squeaked out a 21-7 victory over Minnesota with Russ tossing just 72 yards. Chris Carson and the defense have healthier floors, as Wilson’s crazy TD efficiency has covered up the fact that Seattle is outrageously run-heavy. Throw in that Doug Baldwin will be playing hurt at best and I’m not seeing a recipe for a top-10 QB.

Week 15 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

The Steelers may have blown it in Week 14, but I still have Jaylen Samuels (19 vs. 22) and Stevan Ridley (39 vs. 43) a few steps above the crowd. Both RBs tallied two red-zone opportunities against the Raiders and while Samuels had just 28 rushing yards on 11 carries, he turned in a beautiful 7-64-0 receiving line and Ridley generated a short TD. Per FootballOutsiders, Pittsburgh's offensive line is ranked within the top-five in power blocking and New England's defensive line is the 10th-worst unit overall. Perhaps Ridley can hitch a ride on Brandon Bolden's revenge train from Week 14.

The Falcons rushing attack hasn’t had sharp talons lately, but Ito Smith (30 vs. 37) has out-touched Tevin Coleman in Atlanta’s last two games and now gets to face Arizona’s porous run defense. The Cardinals have stud pass-rusher Chandler Jones on the outside, but their interior is a joke. This also speaks to my lowering Coleman (32 vs. 28).

I’m sure the ECR will shift a bit with Philadelphia’s quarterback situation in flux, but I think it’s safe to assume that Nick Foles is starting here. The ripple effect that hits the passing game is everyone’s first thought, but Josh Adams (28 vs. 24) suffers too. He played on just 21-of-52 snaps (40%) while Darren Sproles’ 22 snaps edged him out in a tight battle with Dallas. It’s hard to imagine Philly isn’t in a similar spot playing from behind against the Rams in Week 15, so I won’t be surprised if Sproles outperforms Adams again. As such, I have Sproles 10 slots above ECR as my No. 41 RB.

Week 15 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Mike Williams (33 vs. 36) should be a big weapon alongside Keenan Allen in a high-scoring affair at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chargers haven’t been great in Kansas City in years past, but a limited or missing Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler will require others to step up. While Tyrell Williams’ ceiling makes for an attractive dart throw, I’m siding with Mike Williams’ talent even though Tyrell has snap counts of 79% and 84% in LAC’s last two games compared to Mike’s 54% and 51%. Despite the snap gap, Mike has out-targeted Tyrell in each of those tilts. He’s a beast whenever he actually gets the ball, and I suspect he’ll see more of it to keep up with KC.

Ever since the Cowboys traded for Amari Cooper and gave Dak Prescott a No. 1 WR starting in Week 9, Cooper’s 510 air yards are 15th in the NFL and have helped fuel his emergence. Do you want to guess who sits just ahead of him in 14th? That’s right, it’s Michael Gallup (39 vs. 45) and his 531 air yards. Of course, he’s only caught 17-of-36 targets in that span while Cooper has hauled in 40-of-53, which speaks to the five-yard gap in average depth of target (Gallup: 14.8, Cooper: 9.6). The potential for a huge game is in the playcalling, so let’s hope the timing is there against Indy.

I've full of pessimism regarding Kenny Golladay (36 vs. 25) after he was shut down by both Matthew Stafford and Patrick Peterson in Week 14, as he saw just four targets in the 17-3 victory that was essentially anesthesia in football form. He caught just two of them for five measly yards and simply can’t be held inside the top-35 anymore. His QB is broken and the offense is without balance, so I don’t expect Golladay to be more than a TD-dependent flex play here and facing Tre White further diminishes his stock. Buh-bye.

Then there's Tyler Lockett (24 vs. 18), to which I say please read the Russell Wilson note again. I respect Lockett’s big-play ceiling, but his floor is peanuts. I’m not calling him Tre'Quan Smith, but he’s approaching T.Y. Hilton levels of trust across the fantasy landscape and I simply don’t see it given the throttled-down passing of Seattle and the high volatility of his deep shots. Chris Carson and Seattle's defense will get a chance to blow San Francisco away and Wilson will likely only need to air it out if they fail.

On the other end of that spectrum lies Adam Humphries (40 vs. 33), who isn’t suddenly a pumpkin but is stuck in a horrible matchup as a PPR slot option. Once again, these are standard ranks (which is another issue entirely and I’m all for FantasyPros ranking us with PPR next year) and while Baltimore is tougher outside than in the slot, I question Tampa Bay’s ability to move the ball. Jameis Winston looked awful after his leg got stuck under a fallen lineman in Week 14 and I don’t want to lean on him here.

Week 15 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

We’ve got Vernon Davis (12 vs. 19) and Anthony Firkser (19 vs. 33). I understand all trepidation to start anyone in a Washington uniform right now, but Davis is the best athlete they’ve got outside of perhaps Josh Johnson with Jordan Reed banged up. Jacksonville on the road is a tall task, but the Jags have been more susceptible to TEs than WRs and I know Adrian Peterson isn’t getting it done for y’all. I expect Davis to see at least eight targets here, which puts him above guys like Ian Thomas in a tough spot against NO with a dinged Cam, Trey Burton fighting for any targets, Jimmy Graham going against Chicago and...

Kyle Rudolph (17 vs. 13), who once again disappointed in Week 14 and still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3. I recognize that Rob Gronkowski just obliterated the Dolphins defense and that Miami is vulnerable through the air, especially without Xavien Howard, but Rudolph is an afterthought now. Then there’s Evan Engram (21 vs. 14), who I’m ranking as if Odell Beckham Jr. plays, though he’d still only go to about 17 or 18 if OBJ sits. The Titans are a force on defense and remain the lone team to hold TEs without a touchdown in 2018. I doubt Engram breaks the mold.

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