The Perfect Pair: Turning Mid-Round QBs Into QB1 Value

Since 2015, I've been in a fantasy football league with a guy whose sole mission on draft day is to select Tom Brady. And when I say it is his sole mission, I do not mean he takes four or five backs and receivers and then grabs Brady a round early just to make sure he gets his boy. No, I think the latest I've ever seen this guy draft Brady was the third round.

The main reason that sticks out in my mind is that it was in 2018 when he couldn't make the draft, and had a friend draft for him. That friend asked for permission to take Tyreek Hill instead, knowing Brady would be available for at least another round. His request was denied, and Hill went on to run away with the top WR ranking at the end of the season.

To each his own. If anything, a league mate operating this way is advantageous, especially if my draft slot is in close proximity to his. If he's drafting the preseason QB8 in the second or third round, that's one more top RB or WR that will be on the board when it's my turn to pick. Except the one thing I didn't factor into my assessment of his draft strategy is that the same unorthodox approach that compels him to take Brady before most of the league is even thinking about quarterback so early yields more wacky results later on.

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Avoiding No Man's Land

In 2016, he and I were drafting right next to each other on the board at picks 11 (me) and 12 (him). I was eyeing Drew Brees somewhere near the seventh round, and the only person who could prevent me from getting him was Brady Guy. And so I foolishly selected a running back or receiver, assuming Brees would still be there on the quick turnaround for my next pick. I was woefully mistaken. Brady Guy drafted Brees right before me. As his backup...

At this point, I found myself in a place I call Quarterback No Man's Land. We've all been here a time or two, especially if we have a tendency to wait on QB at our draft. The last guy we truly wanted comes off the board before we can grab him, and then we're left with a decision: draft another QB we're not as high on just for the sake of shoring up the position or continue stockpiling at other positions and sort out QB later.

It's an unenviable crossroads at which to find ourselves, but fear not. You won't run into any German machine guns, razor wire, or mustard gas up here in Quarterback No Man's Land. You'll simply have to navigate through a minefield of quarterbacks you're not interested in. And if you do choose to continue waiting on QB after your targets are gone, what you might find yourself doing is pairing up two guys who can combine to return the value of a top-10 or top-12 option.

For those of you who wind up here in 2020, I'm here to help. In the passage below, we'll discuss a handful of quarterbacks being drafted outside the top 12 in an attempt to nail down the perfect pair--two guys who can join forces to create a season-long fantasy QB1.

Statistical Outliers and Positive Regression

One of the easiest ways to identify undervalued players (at any position) is to look at the full scope of their performance and see if there are any odd variances or outliers in their underlying numbers that suggest they should have been a better fantasy option the previous year.

One player that immediately jumps off the page at me when looking at 2019 in this regard is Philip Rivers. Rivers threw the second-most passes in a single season (591) of his entire career last year. He completed 66% of them, which was the fifth-highest mark of his 14-year career. His 4,615 passing yards were good for the fourth-best such mark in his time with the Chargers. Out of 32 qualified quarterbacks, Rivers' on-target throw rate of 76.7% was the 10th-highest, and his 15.4% bad throw percentage was the seventh-lowest.

None of this sounds like a guy who was a liability in fantasy lineups yet, does it? Well, where Rivers took a dive was in the touchdown department, with a career-low 3.9% touchdown rate on his throws. Rivers' career touchdown rate is 5.2%. With a 5.2% touchdown rate on 591 pass attempts, Rivers would have thrown 30 or 31 TD in 2019 instead of 23. Another seven or eight touchdowns would have landed him in the fringe QB1 tier.

Rivers compounded his lack of touchdowns by throwing 20 interceptions, but turnovers have always been part of his fantasy profile. Maybe his age and having to learn a new system keep him buried among unreliable QB options, but playing behind the Colts offensive line certainly isn't going to hurt his 2020 outlook, and it's not as though Indianapolis is devoid of skill-position talent. If your journey through QBNML leads you to Rivers, he's going to have his moments in 2020. He's being drafted as QB23, in the 14th round.

Exploiting Usage Trends

Naturally, a sizable chunk of what makes a QB desirable from a fantasy perspective is how his team uses him. A quarterback can be good in real life but not used properly for fantasy purposes. In some cases, it's best to steer clear of these instances on draft day. But not all of them.

I'm a card-carrying member of the "Don't Trust the 49ers in Fantasy (Unless We're Talking George Kittle, Of Course)" alliance, and there's a reasonable chance I wind up with zero shares of that entire offense in any draft this year. The one non-Kittle exception I'm willing to make for the right price is Jimmy Garoppolo, and he's precisely the type of guy I'll be looking for to rescue me if I get stuck in No Man's Land.

The glaring knock on Garoppolo as a fantasy QB is his sheer lack of opportunity, and that's completely fair for 80 out of the 100 yards on a football field. The 49ers attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the NFL in 2019, and only the Ravens ran the ball more often. Expecting a QB in that type of offense to consistently carry us in fantasy is a fool's errand. If we isolate Garoppolo's red-zone numbers, however, we find an intriguing trend.

Garoppolo attempted the eighth-most passes in the league inside the red zone last year (73). Of the 17 quarterbacks who threw at least 60 red-zone passes, Garoppolo ranked third in completion rate behind only Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Only Tom Brady and Jameis Winston threw more passes inside the 10 than Garoppolo's 40. Of the 10 quarterbacks who attempted at least 35 passes inside the 10, Garoppolo ranked second in completion rate (62.5%) and threw the most touchdowns (16). (Lamar Jackson also threw 16 touchdowns inside the 10 on a ludicrous 28 attempts.)

For as much weight as we appropriately give San Francisco's offensive philosophy when evaluating Garoppolo's full fantasy outlook, we shouldn't just gloss over his role in scoring position. The 49ers trust him to chuck it when they get in close, and he proved in 2019 that he can capitalize on such opportunities. If you're going to roster a relatively touchdown-dependent quarterback, it might as well be a guy with a track record of fantasy-friendly usage near the endzone. Garoppolo is being drafted as QB19.

Gambling on Upside

Having discussed two quarterbacks who should be relatively dependable in fantasy lineups, let's now rattle off a few players who come into 2020 with varying levels of upside. We'll start with Daniel Jones, whose unsightly mark of 23 turnovers in 2019 is unlikely to repeat itself in his second year. Jones threw 12 interceptions last season, which is hardly a number to hold against a rookie. Where he really limited his fantasy ceiling was in fumbling 18 times and losing 11 of them. The last player to fumble 18 or more times in a season was David Carr in 2002. Considering how admirably Jones played in other aspects of the game as a rookie on a 4-12 team, ball security will undoubtedly be a major focal point going forward. It's also worth noting Jones was pressured on 29% of his drop-backs; only Case Keenum was pressured more among qualified quarterbacks. This certainly didn't help in terms of holding onto the ball. The Giants spent the fourth overall pick of the 2020 draft on Andrew Thomas, who figures to become Jones' new left tackle.

Jones doesn't have the most exciting down-range weaponry, but having the luxury of peppering Saquon Barkley with dump-offs helps to account for an average receiving corps. A healthy Evan Engram also goes a long way toward providing Jones with the supporting cast to take a leap forward in fantasy. He's QB15 at the moment.

Joe Burrow figures to be a popular flier in 2020 drafts. The first overall pick of the actual NFL draft inherits a Cincinnati roster ripe with skill-position talent and an offensive line that should presumably be better than it was last year now that Jonah Williams has recovered from shoulder surgery. Burrow's fantasy season could go any of a number of ways. He could thrive early while defenses work to figure him out, and then fade once they do. He could struggle early with the pace of the NFL game, and then round the corner in the second half once he hits that proverbial "slow the game down" moment. The best way to view Burrow is probably to accept that you're going to deal with at least equal parts bad and good in his rookie year. Pick your spots on when to start him and when to sit him, and hope to avoid the misfires. Burrow is going off the board as QB18.

If anyone has completely given up on Baker Mayfield after last year, I guess I can't blame them. But let's acknowledge the possibility that expectations were set unfairly high for Mayfield in his first full season as the Browns quarterback. If he had been viewed as a mid-level QB as opposed to a surefire fantasy starter going into last year, he might not have lost so many advocates in the fantasy community. There are aspects of a catastrophic 2019 that are on Mayfield and Mayfield alone, but let's not pretend he didn't suffer from questionable offensive line play and suspect play-calling. Mayfield was in a seven-way tie for the lowest average pocket time in 2019 at 2.3 seconds. The Browns brought in reinforcements at both tackle positions in Jack Conklin and rookie Jedrick Wills, and Pro Football Focus ranked Cleveland's as the most improved offensive line heading into 2020. Cleveland also fired headstrong Freddie Kitchens and brought in a first-time head coach with a long-standing reputation of getting results out of quarterbacks in Kevin Stefanski. Mayfield still has a ton of weapons around him, and I'm still willing to take this gamble for one more year if I'm in the market for a quarterback at his QB17 ADP.

The Perfect Pair

I wanted to highlight more than two players because even in No Man's Land, we can still wind up watching helplessly as our secondary and tertiary QB options are snagged before we can draft them. Yes, even in the latter stages of the draft, we have to give ourselves multiple outlets. The above-mentioned five are the players I will be looking for late if I don't get a top-12 option. But now, as promised, I want to narrow down the focus to the "perfect pair." While I'd be fine rolling with the floors of Rivers and Garoppolo in this scenario, my personal preference would be to pair one of them with a higher ceiling. Furthermore, I'm inviting volatility on myself if both of my quarterbacks are upside plays. So regardless of which quarterbacks you intend to escape with from No Man's Land, my advice is to identify a handful of guys you consider to be relatively safe. Grab one of them, and then feel free to air it out with the other.

If I get stuck in QBNML in 2020, I'm going to try to walk away with Garoppolo and Mayfield. Give me the guy running the offense of the defending NFC champion 49ers. I'm willing to accept the trade-offs in full-scale opportunity for the assurance that San Francisco will be a good real-life team with a competently-run offense. The Niners did, after all, score 31 or more points in eight games last season (nine if we include the NFC Championship Game). Head coach Kyle Shanahan routinely puts his team in position to succeed, and that's about as much of a safety net as I'm going to find if I'm still looking for a QB this late in the draft.

As for Mayfield, well, there's a reason I'm penciling him in here as an upside play. He could totally backfire on me with another season like the one he had in 2019. The difference is now I can draft him in the 12th round as opposed to the sixth or seventh. At that price, it's not costing me much to be wrong. Let's give him a second chance in a better coaching situation and with better protection up front.

Now that we have our guys, next we have to map out when to start each one in order to maximize what we get out of our duo. After all, we're aiming for combined top-12 QB production.

Who to Start and When

Week 1 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Browns play at Baltimore in Week 1. No thanks. The Cardinals gave the 49ers a run for their money on the scoreboard in 2019, which lends itself to the possibility of a shootout to kick off the 2020 season. Garoppolo threw for 741 yards and eight touchdowns in two meetings versus Arizona, completing over 75% of his passes along the way.

Week 2 - Jimmy Garoppolo @ New York Jets

If Mayfield wasn't playing Thursday night in Week 2, I'd be inclined to pick him here. I'm not crazy about Garoppolo going across the country for a 1:00 start. For all their faults in 2019, the Jets were statistically the most difficult team to run on with a league-low 3.3 yards-per-carry average against. If I'm starting Garoppolo here, it's with the idea the 49ers will struggle to establish the run early on the road, thus giving him more chances to throw.

Week 3 - Baker Mayfield vs. Washington Football Team

Washington surprisingly had the third-highest pressure rate in the league last year at 28.5%, and adding Chase Young figures to make its pass rush even more formidable. Still, Washington might be the worst overall team in the league this season. If I can't trust Mayfield to put forth a respectable fantasy performance at home against Washington, I shouldn't have even drafted him.

Week 4 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Philadelphia Eagles

When in doubt, take the good quarterback on the good team at home against an opponent that has to travel 3,000 miles. Mayfield plays at Dallas this week, and I'm not sure I'll be ready to trust him on the road against good teams this early in the season.

Week 5 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Miami Dolphins

If Washington isn't the worst team in the NFL, it will probably be Miami. My only concern here is that the 49ers will get off to such a fast start that they won't need to throw after about the halfway point of the second quarter.

Week 6 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Los Angeles Rams

Garoppolo didn't play very well against the Rams in 2019, but there's always shootout potential when two quality division rivals meet up. Plus, Mayfield is going on the road to Pittsburgh, one of the league's better defenses and pass rushes from last season.

Week 7 - Baker Mayfield @ Cincinnati Bengals

The only reason I veered away from Mayfield in this matchup back in Week 2 was the short week. I try not to start questionable players in Thursday night games, especially that early in the season. That said, the Bengals didn't have the first overall pick in the 2020 draft for no reason. Cincinnati has its fair share of holes and gave up the most yards per completion of any pass defense in the league in 2019. If I'm right about Mayfield taking a step forward in 2020, right around now is when he'll be hitting his stride. Also, the 49ers play at New England this week.

Week 8 - Baker Mayfield vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Only Washington and Miami gave up touchdowns on a higher percentage of opponents' throws in 2019 than the Raiders. The artist formerly known as Oakland also permitted the second-highest yards-per-completion average in the league. Rounding it all out is the Raiders' 19.9% pressure rate, good for the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Garoppolo goes on the road to Seattle this week, so give me Mayfield at home against a very bad pass defense.

Week 9 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Green Bay Packers

The Browns are on a bye in Week 9, so we don't have much choice other than to start Garoppolo on Thursday night against Green Bay. For what it's worth, the 49ers absolutely had their way with the Packers in two meetings last year, one of which was an incredibly boring and lopsided NFC Championship Game. While most of the 49ers' success in those contests was the result of a completely disinterested Packers run defense, Garoppolo did pepper them for 253 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 pass attempts in the first matchup.

Week 10 - Jimmy Garoppolo @ New Orleans Saints

The Browns get the Texans at home this week, meaning both QBs have the recipe in place for a shootout. Still, the shootout of all shootouts took place in New Orleans last year when the 49ers outscored the Saints 48-46 in Week 14. Garoppolo threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in that game, and completed just under 75% of his passes.

Week 11 - Baker Mayfield vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The 49ers are on bye this week, so unfortunately we have to settle for a middle-of-the-road matchup with Mayfield. The Eagles were neither a porous nor impenetrable pass defense in 2019, but their offense should be functional enough to keep this game close and force the Browns to throw.

Week 12 - Baker Mayfield @ Jacksonville Jaguars

By this point in the season, we're going to know full well whether any positive change has taken place in Cleveland. I'd like to think they'll be able to go on the road and handle the lowly Jaguars in Week 12. Gardner Minshew's propensity for gun-slinging adds an element of shootout intrigue. The 49ers play on the road against the Rams in Week 12, a contest in which I can see the 49ers relying heavily on their modus operandi of ball control via the ground game.

Week 13 - Baker Mayfield @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans had one of the least effective pass rushes in the league last year with a 21.1% pressure rate. A relative inability to get to the quarterback doesn't stack up very well against Cleveland's improved offensive line. Tennessee was, however, a solid run defense, which could make it tough for the Browns to get anything going on the ground. Garoppolo has to face the Bills at home in Week 13, and though I'm not crazy about Mayfield on the road with a potential fantasy playoff spot on the line, I'd rather take my chances against Tennessee than the vaunted Bills Defense.

Week 14 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Washington Football Team

The Browns play the Ravens at home. The 49ers play Washington at home. In the first round of the fantasy playoffs, this is a no-brainer.

Week 15 - Jimmy Garoppolo @ Dallas Cowboys

Since I never have any idea what to expect from the Cowboys defensively, this game has shootout potential plastered all over it. The 49ers answered the bell every time they were challenged on the scoreboard in 2019, and if there's anything we can definitively say about Dallas heading into 2020, it's that they should be one of the league's most prolific offenses. Give me Garoppolo against my Cowboys over Mayfield on the road against the Giants.

Week 16 - Jimmy Garoppolo @ Arizona Cardinals

Once again, we're looking at the possibility of a high-scoring affair with the 49ers facing a dynamic Cardinals offense on the road. And once again, let me remind you that Garoppolo torched Arizona for 741 yards and eight touchdowns in two meetings last season. With a fantasy championship at stake, I'm leaning Garoppolo over Mayfield, who gets the Jets on the road in Week 16.

Week 17 - Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Seattle Seahawks

If I play in a league that runs all the way through Week 17, I'm hoping the 49ers are fighting for home-field advantage here. Cleveland gets Pittsburgh's tough pass defense to end the season, and I really don't want to have to turn to the quarterback facing them in this situation. Hopefully, the 49ers still have something to play for in the final week, as the Seahawks were not a particularly formidable pass defense in 2019 except for limiting touchdowns effectively.

Closing Statements

Needless to say, it would be absurd for me to believe I can accurately project which quarterback to start for every week of the season when we haven't even gotten into the thick of training camps yet. There are plenty of variables at play. Defenses that were tough to play against last year may take a step backward in 2020 (New England) and vice versa. The run-heavy 49ers may pivot to a more aerial approach, in turn making Garoppolo more of a weekly starter than a matchup-dependent streamer. Mayfield may crash through the breakout barrier like many expected him to last year, which would thus render him a solid starting option as well.

All we can do at this point in the year is come up with a Plan A, while also acknowledging we are almost certain to have to adjust to what actually ends up happening on the football field. If we're staring down the barrel of a dual-QB streaming approach with Garoppolo and Mayfield, a good starting point would be to plan on avoiding Mayfield early against opponents like Pittsburgh and Baltimore, or in that early Thursday night game. We can pencil Garoppolo in for starts at home against divisional opponents like Arizona and Los Angeles, keeping in mind that a few of those NFC West games were high-scoring in 2019. And in some weeks, one of Mayfield or Garoppolo will be facing a clearly inferior opponent like Miami or Washington. From here, we just try to piece together each week the best we can based on whatever new information is presented to us.

At the very least, I hope I've helped you formulate a strategy for how to navigate through Quarterback No Man's Land. You don't have to believe in the same quarterbacks I do, but I hope my thought process in narrowing down my contingency targets provides you with the tools to identify your own guys. If you have any fantasy football questions, feel free to reach out on Twitter: @cjoreillyCLE

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