Predicting the First Two Rounds of 2024 Underdog Fantasy Football Drafts

It's easy to forget just how different the NFL landscape will look 12 months from now. Ever facepalmed yourself ranking a player way too high that it blew up in your face? What sent them tumbling down the charts? It's all about crunching those age apex curves for QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs. Who's this year's diamond in the rough destined to climb up the draft ranks come next year?

The purpose of this exercise is to analyze potential ascending and descending players to get a gauge on who we might want to target more or less in our fantasy drafts. Time to get the magnifying glass out and play detective on the rise and fall of our fantasy gridiron stars. This helps us figure out who's on the runway, prepped for their peak season, and who might be ready for a swan song. While I'm not claiming to be a fantasy Nostradamus, this is the kind of homework that gives us a sneak peek into the fantasy realm a year down the line.

Here's the blueprint for our 2024 fantasy football draft projection: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR, 1-TE, and 1-Flex in Half PPR scoring. We have seen wide receivers rise up the draft boards considerably in 2023 compared to 2022. Is it the norm as fantasy drafters are viewing WRs as safer and more predictable bets? Or will NFL RBs rise from the ashes to make the position great again? Time to rewind, fast-forward, and get the full picture.

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Round 1 of 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

1.01 Bijan Robinson - RB, Atlanta Falcons

If Bijan is going this high in drafts then it's inevitable that he won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and was a Top 3 RB in the fantasy landscape in 2023. He's the most complete running back we have seen enter the NFL since Saquon Barkley in 2018. While Tyler Allgeier is a talented RB in his own right, he isn't on the same level as Robinson. The Falcons drafted him at No. 8 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft sent quite a statement. While there are hurdles for Robinson to overcome in terms of guaranteeing he will receive a full workload, Bijan is a complete three-down back who is an even better receiver than a runner. It's not out of the realm of possibilities for Bijan Robinson to make running backs great again.

1.02 Ja'Marr Chase - WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Unguardable. Uncoverable. Unstoppable. Ja'Marr has set the NFL on fire in his just two seasons and has formed the NFL's best young QB/WR with Joe Burrow. Chase missed 5 games in 2022 but still finished with 87 receptions for 1,046 yards and 9 TDs. He was the WR6 in 2022 on a PPG basis and has the more secure QB situation going forward. With 2023 looking like the final season in Minnesota for Kirk Cousins, how does that impact their WR1 for the 2024 season? With Chase, we don't even have to worry about who his next QB will be for the next decade.

1.03 Justin Jefferson - WR, Minnesota Vikings

After cementing his spot as the 1.01 in fantasy football drafts for just about all of 2023, how will the season unfold for Jefferson? He's on a phenomenal pace for just being in the league for 3 seasons and is such a skilled route technician there really is no weakness in his game. In just 3 seasons has 324 receptions for 4,825 yards and 25 TDs and finished as the WR2 in fantasy for 2022 among WRs on a PPG basis. What's crazy is that despite how great Jefferson has been, he will need 13 more seasons averaging 94 receptions for 1,390 yards and 14 TDs through age 36 just to get even with Jerry Rice in the record books. The uncertainty regarding his 2024 quarterback is the only reason he is bumped down two spots.

1.04 Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets

While this might seem high, tell me with a straight face that Hall wouldn't have been the unquestioned RB1 and 1.01 in fantasy football this year if he had stayed healthy for all of 2022. In just 7 games, Hall had 80 rush attempts for 463 yards and 4 TDs to go along with 19 receptions for 218 yards and 1 TD. While it might not seem like much, extrapolate that over a 17-game stretch and Hall goes for over 1,600 all-purpose yards while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. While Dalvin Cook's signing in New York likely caps his upside for 2023, Cook was only signed to a 1-year deal. Breece is the complete back. All full health he's got the rushing prowess of Jonathan Taylor and the receiving ability of Saquon Barkley.

1.05 Garrett Wilson - WR, New York Jets

Two Jets in the top five? Are pigs flying? Just hear me out. It's pretty evident that Aaron Rodgers will help to uplift the Jets' offense from the depths of despair. While the Jets haven't usually been a high-powered offense historically, GM Joe Douglas absolutely crushed the 2022 NFL Draft, first with Hall and then with Wilson. As a rookie, Garrett still had 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and 4 TDs with the worst of quarterback situations throwing him the ball. The crazy thing is, that 2022 feels like the low end of Wilson's range of outcomes. He is one of the few wide receivers currently in the NFL who could get in the same tier as Jefferson and Chase in terms of dominance. If Aaron Rodgers is still himself, watch out.

1.06 Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, Detroit Lions

Another wide receiver who goes in the first round, the first half of 2024 Underdog drafts starts with 2 RBs and 4 WRs, close to where it was one year ago with 1 RB, 4 WRs, and 1 TE. Amon-Ra continues to defy the odds despite being doubted by fantasy analysts as well as when he went in the 4th Round of the 2021 NFL Draft. He plays in the slot and may not have some of the explosive play-making ability of other deep-threat WRs, St. Brown is such a volume hog and good wide receiver that he provides your best ball lineup with a very high floor. While Jameson Williams has a ton of talent, he is more of a big-play, vertical type of WR who is the perfect complement to St. Brown. Don't let any of the naysayers sway you, just watch the tape. The Sun God can ball.

1.07 CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys

In 2022, Lamb eliminated any of the doubts people had about him being an elite wide receiver when he lived up to the hype and became the Cowboys' bonafide No. 1 WR after Amari Cooper was traded to the Cleveland Browns. Lamb commanded 156 targets, which was the 4th most while hauling in 107 receptions for 1,359 yards and 9 finishing as the WR6. Lamb is locked in with a solid quarterback in Dak Prescott. While there are always concerns with HC Mike McCarthy continuing to not evolve amid the changing NFL landscape, Lamb is simply too great of a talent to think he'll be any further down this list.

1.08 Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Detroit Lions

There are some split feelings on Gibbs this year from the fantasy community. At 199 lbs. can he shoulder the workload of a typical three-down RB? Will David Montgomery siphon away his goal-line touches? While those are valid concerns, Gibbs is such an electric playmaker who has the chance to take it to the house on any given touch. The Lions feature one of the best offensive lines in the league and Gibbs has a lot of ways to score fantasy points due to how great of a receiver he is. From 2013-2022, only 4 RBs out of 37 with 100+ rushes and 60+ receptions finished outside of the Top 12 for fantasy. Even if Gibbs doesn't get true bell-cow volume, he has the ability to be ultra-efficient with his touches. Gibbs' explosive talent is simply too great to ignore.

1.09 Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins

After being used as more of an underneath target as a rookie, Waddle was the Dolphins' big-play WR in 2022! He was targeted 117 times and finished with 75 receptions for 1,356 yards and 8 TDs, averaging a whopping 18.1 yards per reception! What makes Waddle intriguing this season for fantasy is that even with Tyreek Hill alongside him there is very little competition for targets elsewhere. Waddle is one of the fastest players in the league and with Hill soon approaching 30, it shouldn't surprise any of us if he ends up overtaking Hill as the No. 1 WR on the Dolphins. QB Tua Tagovailoa needs to stay healthy, but Waddle has been nothing short of impressive during his first two years in the NFL and is well on his way to stardom.

1.10 Travis Etienne - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

I hear you. The Jaguars drafted RB Tank Bigsby in Round 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft and Etienne didn't show enough in 2022 to prove that he could be a bell cow. However, it's easy to forget just how different his career could have gone. Etienne made the mistake of returning to Clemson in 2020 for his senior season and then had a Lisfranc injury during training camp in 2021 that robbed him of his rookie season. The Jaguars offense has the early makings of a juggernaut in 2023 and there will be ample opportunity for Etienne to perform. Last season he averaged 5.1 yards per carry while rushing for 1,125 yards and 5 TDs while catching 35 passes for 316 yards. While Bigsby is going to play some, there is still room for Etienne to grow as a runner and a receiver. 2-plus years removed from injury his explosiveness should be even better this year. Sometimes despite the circumstances you just have to make a bet on an elite talent.

1.11 Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks

While this one might surprise you, if there's one wide receiver who could dominate the NFL as a rookie like Ja'Marr Chase did it would be JSN. He fits right in as the Seahawks' WR2-WR3 and should play the slot immediately. While the Seahawks ran 12-personnel (two TE sets) at a 40% rate last year, expect that to change in 2023. Offensive Coordinator Shane Waldron came from the Rams, who are the 11-personnel (three WR sets) kings. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are two very talented wide receivers, but they tend to work more downfield and not in the same underneath area of the field where JSN thrives. He is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses in 2023 and has the ability to dominate. JSN was so good he put up 95 receptions for 1,606 yards and 9 TDs while playing on the field at the same time with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. JSN is him.

1.12. Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco 49ers

While the 2024 season will be his eighth in the league on top of turning 28 years old, we should expect CMC to age a little more gracefully than other running backs. He is such a dynamic pass catcher that he will still have value for fantasy for a few more seasons. In the high-powered 49ers offense, it's hard not to see him continuing to thrive. Barring any major injuries in 2023, McCaffrey will seem like a relative bargain at this spot even though it's inevitable the market will start fading him due to his being 28.

Round 2 of 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

2.01. A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

2.02. George Pickens - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

2.03 Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs

2.04 Kenneth Walker - RB, Seattle Seahawks

2.05 Tyreek Hill - WR, Miami Dolphins

2.06 Austin Ekeler - RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2.07 Javonte Williams - RB, Denver Broncos

2.08 Jonathan Taylor - RB, Indianapolis Colts

2.09 Cooper Kupp - WR, Los Angeles Rams

2.10 Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots

2.11 DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles

2.12 Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons

These predictions amount to a total of 10 RBs, 12 WRs, and 2 TEs in the first two rounds of 2024 Underdog Fantasy drafts.

 

Conclusion

What did you think of this list? Who is too high and who was left out? The point of this exercise was to make us take the long view in assessing the 2023 fantasy football landscape in terms of spotting potential breakout players and determining who might drastically fall in ADP over the next 12 months either due to performance or due to age. While many fantasy players are out there and taking a "wait-and-see approach" with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it's only likely that he will be much more expensive in 2024 as the market continues to become more efficient. Happy drafting and I hope you enjoy the 2023 season!

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