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Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola is coming off the worst season of his big-league career. Injuries limited him to just 17 starts and fewer than 100 innings in 2025, and he ultimately finished the year with a staggering 6.01 ERA and 4.58 FIP. His 9.25 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9 rates were fine, but his home run rate ballooned to a whopping 1.72 HR/9, which is a career high. Meanwhile, his ground ball rate dipped to 42.5%, the second-lowest mark of his career. Understandably, managers are worried about the 11-year veteran's outlook going forward. However, some of the underlying metrics suggest he's due to bounce back. Most notably, Nola had a 3.71 xFIP last year, indicating that he was unlucky and vastly underperformed expectations. His 4.12 xERA suggests similar. Still armed with an elite knuckle curve and above-average fastball, Nola has the skill set to bounce back and meet or exceed his expected metrics in 2026. His rough 2025 is baked into his current ranking as the #59 starter in RotoBaller's draft rankings, and managers should consider drafting him as a low-risk, high-upside rotation piece.--Andersen Pickard
Source: RotoBaller
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