X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

NextGen Stats 2022 Season Review: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

Time's up! The 2022 fantasy season is done and gone for good. Whether you play in a redraft league or are part of a dynasty format, the days of sitting at the edge of your couch and biting your nails are over. We have a tough eight-month desert to walk through ahead of us, but hey, the real NFL players are this close to kickoff and we will still enjoy football for another month and change, so you better get to it while it lasts! With the numbers in place and the games finished, it's time to wrap up the series and take a final look at who was who during this 2022 season.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2023. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup tools, new Team Sync platform, Lineup Optimizer, Premium DFS tools and cheat sheets, and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

2022 Best and Worst Receivers - Next Gen Stats

The season, at least for us fantasy nuts, is finally over. That is nothing good for our enjoyment of the fantasy game, but it is a time of calm and peace to enjoy the real NFL playoffs that we're also invested in. With all of the regular season numbers now in place, it is time to wrap up the Next Gen Stats series position by position.

This week, I will go through the receiving positions, covering both wide receivers and tight ends. Today, I'll provide a final update on how the league's WR/TEs have done in the different metrics we've already tackled during the season. I will only show a small number of names for each category, present the correlation with the fantasy points averaged by the player, skip the gory details, and instead, provide a new "combined" leaderboard at the end of the column.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 45 targets for both WR and TE.

 

Cushion / Separation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: minus-6% / minus-10%

Leaders and Trailers:

 

Targeted Air Yards / % Share of Team's Air Yards

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 7% / 66%

Leaders and Trailers:

 

Receptions / Targets / Catch% / Touchdowns

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 85% / 83% / 22% / 74%

Leaders and Trailers:

 

Total Yards (Air Yds + YAC) / Air Yards / YAC%

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 87% / 77% / minus-2%

Leaders and Trailers:

 

Yards After Catch / Expected YAC / YAC Above Expectation

Correlation with Fantasy Points: 12% / 1% / 19%

Leaders and Trailers: 

 

Combined Next Gen Stats Leaderboard

To build this leaderboard, I used every metric that is part of the NGS site and put everything together in a combined score I labeled "NGS" in the following table. The calculation of each player's NGS score is simple. I calculated where each player ranked for each metric and then multiplied that rank by the correlation between that metric and my FP/G metric. Players ranked higher (closer to one) in each category will have lower scores for those categories. In the end, I added up each player's scores from all of the categories, getting a single NGS score.

The lower the NGS, the better the player for fantasy as each category was already weighted given its correlation with the FP/G metric. Here are the results:

NGS Leaderboard Notes:

With Cooper Kupp missing a good bunch of games this season, there was always going to be a new NGS (and fantasy, for that matter) pass-catching king. This season, after 18 games, that is clearly Justin Jefferson.

The Vikings wideout put a 12+ NGS-point gap between him and second-place Tyreek Hill. That same point difference is the one found between no. 2 Hill and no. 6 Davante Adams, showing how unique Jefferson was but how the next-best crop of players was solid (and very bunched) behind him.

As many as five pass catchers, all of them playing the WR position, finished inside the top five in five different categories featured on the NGS website: Jefferson, Hill, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Adams.

One who didn't top five in five categories was the no. 5 player on the NGS leaderboard, CeeDee Lamb. He only reached the top five in two statistical categories: targets and receptions, quite the classic football metrics for receivers outside of total yards and touchdowns (he landed in sixth place on both fronts).

Jefferson was the clear best player with three different top finishes and another top two on top of that. The three cats he led were receptions, targets, and yards with a top two finish in Air Yards and one more top five rank in TAY%.

No other top-36 WR/TE in the NGS combined leaderboard ranked at the top of more than one category at the end of the 2022 NFL regular season, while Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams were the only two other players to get two top two finishes in different statistical categories.

Outside of that top 36, though, there start to appear some oddities. For example:

  • Gabe Davis ranked 37th OVR in the combined NGS leaderboard while topping one category (TAY) and making the top two in another one (YAC%).
  • George Pickens (40th OVR) led two categories (CUSH and YAC%).
  • Dallas Goedert (59th) had three top three finishes (CATCH%, YAC/R, xYAC/R), topping one (the latter) cat.
  • Deebo Samuel (64th) topped two categories (YAC/R and xYAC/R) while also finishing inside the top three in another one (YACOE).
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo (103rd) finished top two in two categories. Foster Moreau (118th) finished top four in two cats.

DK Metcalf was the best-ranked player (14th OVR) to finish in the bottom 10 of three different categories (SEP, YAC/R, xYAC/R). Teammate Tyler Lockett ranked 16th overall with two such finishes (CUSH and YACOE).

Both A.J. Green and Tyquan Thornton ranked bottom 10 in most categories with eight such finishes each. No other player ranked so badly in so many statistical categories. The "next-worst" players were Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore with five bottom 10 finishes each, both members of the Cardinals.

  • The correlation between FP/G and NGS scores is a rather-high 84% for the 2022 season. That, though, is a little bit below last year's 88-percent relationship.
  • The 16-percentage-point gap explains the small differences in both ranks:

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!




Win Big With RotoBaller

Be sure to also check out all of our other daily fantasy football articles and analysis to help you set those winning lineups, including this new RotoBaller YouTube video:

More Fantasy Football Analysis




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
Fantasy Updates
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Lauri Markkanen13 mins ago

Questionable Against Spurs
Gabe Vincent18 mins ago

Picks Up Late Questionable Tag
Gary Trent22 mins ago

Jr. Remains Out Tuesday Against Heat
Grant Williams27 mins ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Alec Martinez34 mins ago

Returns For Vegas Tuesday
Roman Josi41 mins ago

Will Remain Out Tuesday
Jesper Fast48 mins ago

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Carter Hart54 mins ago

Won't Play Tuesday
Jeff Petry1 hour ago

A Game-Time Decision For Tuesday
Philipp Kurashev1 hour ago

Shut Down For The Season
Alexander Barabanov1 hour ago

Misses Tuesday's Action
Gabriel Vilardi1 hour ago

Out On Tuesday
Adam Schenk2 hours ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore2 hours ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger2 hours ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Gary Trent2 hours ago

Jr. Considered Questionable On Tuesday
Si Woo Kim2 hours ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery3 hours ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners3 hours ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Jimmy Butler3 hours ago

Will Miss Tuesday's Game Versus Toronto
Jarrett Allen3 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Tuesday
Jake Oettinger3 hours ago

Minds The Crease Against Chicago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander3 hours ago

Has Been Ruled Out On Tuesday
Joonas Korpisalo3 hours ago

To Start Against Calgary Tuesday
Ben Simmons3 hours ago

Officially Out For The Remainder Of The Season
Jacob Markstrom3 hours ago

Tending Twine Tuesday
Kevin Durant3 hours ago

Will Return On Wednesday Against Minnesota
Jordan Binnington3 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Vancouver
Casey DeSmith4 hours ago

Named The Starter Tuesday
Carter Hart4 hours ago

Starting Tuesday Against Montreal
Johan Oviedo4 hours ago

To Start Season In Rotation
Tyler Heineman4 hours ago

Yerry De Los Santos Sent Down
Sandy León4 hours ago

Sandy Leon Re-Signs With Rangers
Jurickson Profar4 hours ago

Has Visa Issues Resolved
Keston Hiura4 hours ago

Outrighted To Triple-A
Andrés Giménez5 hours ago

Guardians, Andres Gimenez Finalizing Long-Term Extension
Lamar Jackson5 hours ago

Texans Not Expected To Pursue Lamar Jackson
Desmond Ridder5 hours ago

Preparing To Be Falcons Starter
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Rams Re-Sign Marquise Copeland
Thomas Detry5 hours ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Trey Sermon5 hours ago

Eagles Like Trey Sermon's Potential
Kyler Murray5 hours ago

No Timeline For Kyler Murray
Buffalo Bills5 hours ago

Von Miller On Schedule In His Recovery
Buffalo Bills5 hours ago

Sean McDermott To Call Defensive Plays
Aaron Rai5 hours ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Javonte Williams6 hours ago

Making "Great Strides" In Recovery
Akshay Bhatia6 hours ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Hobie Harris6 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Tyrone Taylor6 hours ago

Hoping To Return In Mid-May
Adrian Houser6 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Jeff Hoffman6 hours ago

Released By Twins
Kris Bubic6 hours ago

Named Royals Fifth Starter
Sean Doolittle6 hours ago

Tanner Rainey To Continue Rehabbing
Hunter Gaddis6 hours ago

Expected To Enter Rotation
Josiah Gray7 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Saturday
Devin Duvernay7 hours ago

Expected To Return In 2023
Matthew Stafford7 hours ago

Won't Have Any Limitations
Trey Lance7 hours ago

Has A Chance To Regain Starting Job
Odell Beckham Jr.7 hours ago

Giants A Long Shot For Odell Beckham Jr.
DJ Chark7 hours ago

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Michael Thomas7 hours ago

Making Progress In Recovery
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Trade Could Involve Two Second-Round Picks
Irv Smith Jr.8 hours ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Bengals
César Hernández8 hours ago

Tigers Release Cesar Hernandez
James McCann8 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Mychal Givens8 hours ago

Headed To Injured List
Leody Taveras8 hours ago

Out Another Week
Sergio Romo8 hours ago

Officially Retires With Giants
Cristian Pache8 hours ago

Won't Be On Opening Day Roster
Daniel Hudson8 hours ago

Could Return In Late April
Nicolas Batum9 hours ago

Drops Eight Three-Point Bombs On Chicago
Nikola Jokic9 hours ago

Logs His 29th Triple-Double Of The Year
Tyrese Maxey9 hours ago

Leads Sixers Offense With 29 Points
Immanuel Quickley9 hours ago

Scores Career-High 40 Points
Bennedict Mathurin9 hours ago

Breaks Out Of Slump Monday
Jaden Ivey10 hours ago

Fills The Box Score Monday
Khris Middleton10 hours ago

Has Season-High 34 Points Monday
Lawson Crouse10 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists Monday
Leon Draisaitl10 hours ago

Takes Point Streak To Nine Games
Connor McDavid10 hours ago

Hits 140 Points For The Season
Cale Makar10 hours ago

Helps To Set Up Two Goals
Marc-Andre Fleury11 hours ago

Returns To Form Monday
Matthew Boldy11 hours ago

Scores Another Hat Trick
Trevor Zegras11 hours ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander20 hours ago

Questionable Versus Charlotte
Ja Morant20 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Orlando
Terry Rozier20 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday Evening
Gordon Hayward20 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against OKC
New England Patriots21 hours ago

Jerod Mayo To Be Bill Belichick's Successor?
Buffalo Bills21 hours ago

Taylor Rapp Signs One-Year Deal With Bills
Jarrett Stidham21 hours ago

Broncos Think Jarrett Stidham Has Starting Potential
Gardner Minshew21 hours ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Mac Jones21 hours ago

Not Guaranteed To Start In 2023
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Impressive At COTA
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher1 day ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR1 day ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric1 day ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera1 day ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen1 day ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos1 day ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm1 day ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo1 day ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr1 day ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee1 day ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber1 day ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani1 day ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev1 day ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron1 day ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
Jordan Taylor3 days ago

Making NASCAR Debut At COTA, Will Start 4th
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Excited To Showcase Speed At COTA This Weekend
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Starts 28th At COTA For Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3 days ago

. In Middle Of Pack For COTA
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Rough Patch In Qualifying On Saturday
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Starts Ninth For COTA Race On Sunday
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Could Be A Wildcard On Sunday
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Finds Way To Qualify 10th At COTA
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

A Few Seconds Off the COTA Pace
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Begins 38th For Sunday's Race At COTA
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Just A Little Off At COTA On Saturday
Cory Sandhagen4 days ago

Can Earn Back-To-Back Victories
Marlon Vera4 days ago

Finds Himself In Main-Event Spotlight Saturday
Yana Santos4 days ago

Looking For Biggest UFC Win Of Her Career
Holly Holm4 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Austin Lingo4 days ago

On Verge Of Three-Fight Winning Streak
Nate Landwehr4 days ago

Hoping For Third Straight Strong Performance
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee5 days ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
MMA5 days ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Alex Perez5 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF