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Adam Koffler's 6 fantasy football breakout players and potential league-winning picks for 2026. His top early round breakout candidates include Kenneth Walker, Chris Olave and more.
The term "league winner" gets thrown around a lot. Not every player deserves that title, but we'll do what we can to identify players who could be big-time difference makers in fantasy football this season.
A league winner typically ascends due to talent, opportunity, and health. They also (generally speaking) outperform their average draft position (ADP). It's important to hit on your early-round picks, but it's also just as important to pick the right players in the mid-to-late rounds as well to gain that competitive edge over your league-mates.
In this article, I'll highlight six players from the first five rounds that I'm targeting most often this season. Of course, I'd love to have all three of Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Ja'Marr Chase, but that can't happen (unless you have an Auction draft, in which case, go for it). Here they are: my six must-have early-round league winners for 2026 fantasy football.
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James Cook III, RB - Buffalo Bills
Yahoo ADP - 9.9 (RB5)
Outside of Gibbs and Robinson, there might not be a safer running back on the board than Cook. And there's an upside case for even more in 2026.
In four seasons, Cook has missed just one game due to a minor toe injury. Health can be random at times, but it doesn't hurt (no pun intended) that he's running behind a top-five offensive line with a mobile Josh Allen at quarterback.
After signing a lucrative contract extension last offseason, Cook led all backs with 95.4 rushing yards per game and an elite 5.25 yards per carry on 309 rush attempts.
In 2024, he rushed just 207 times but still managed to churn out 4.87 yards per carry with a whopping 16 touchdowns.
He was a clear fantasy RB1 in both years. But he wasn't top five, and that's because of his lack of involvement in the passing game.
Last season, Cook ranked just 25th among running backs in route participation (37.1%). In 2024, just 33rd (35.2%). In both years, he averaged just 2.4 targets per game.
But that's going to change in 2026. Per Bills beat writer Alex Brasky, new offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael hinted at Cook being used more in the passing game this season.
"Anytime you can get the ball in his hands, you have an opportunity for a big play," said Carmichael. "I think he can bring value not only in the run game, but in the pass game as well."
And in a recent interview, Yahoo's Matt Harmon asked Cook about his potential increased involvement in the passing game.
There's been a ton of buzz out of Bills camp that James Cook and the RBs will be more involved in the passing game this season.
So, I asked the man himself.
What did his answer suggest? You decide. pic.twitter.com/OQgEBph5ja
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 13, 2026
It seems pretty clear that Cook will see more than 2.4 targets per game this season.
And if the "coach speak" and the man himself hinting at more involvement weren't enough, Ty Johnson, one of the league's better passing-down backs, has a knee injury and has missed the last couple of weeks of practice.
Cook is also eligible to renegotiate his contract after this season, and you better believe he'll be looking for Gibbs, Robinson, and Jonathan Taylor-type money after a career year in 2026.
Kenneth Walker, RB - Kansas City Chiefs
Yahoo ADP - 17.1 (RB10)
Make no mistake about it, Andy Reid wants a workhorse running back. So, after years of being mid in the rushing department, the Chiefs went out and signed Walker to a three-year, $43 million contract with $28.7 million guaranteed.
Eric Bieniemy is also back with the Chiefs as the offensive coordinator (OC). He was with the team from 2013 to 2022 as the running backs coach and OC.
Ever since 2017, when they drafted Kareem Hunt, the Chiefs have been on the hunt (pun intended) for that next workhorse.
Yes, it's nine years ago, but the coaching staff is essentially the same. As a rookie, Hunt saw a 78% opportunity share and 16.4 weighted opportunities per game (both ranked top six among running backs, per PlayerProfiler). That included 4.2 targets per game.
Then in 2020, the Chiefs reached on Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round. Despite not profiling as an every-down back, CEH was handed a 67% opportunity share and nearly 15 weighted opportunities per game. That included 4.2 targets per game.
In 2024, Walker averaged 4.8 targets per game and had the fourth-highest running back target share (13.8%) and fifth-highest route participation rate (51.8%), showing he can handle a receiving workload out of the backfield.
Now, after years of Darrel Williams, Damien Williams, an aged LeSean McCoy, and Hunt, it's now Walker's time as the newest bell cow in Kansas City.
Chiefs OL coach Andy Heck on RB Kenneth Walker says he's a do-it-all player: "His balance, his strength, his ability to make guys miss, I think, are going to be special for him."
— Charles Goldman (@goldmctNFL) August 19, 2026
Last season, Walker played 17 games for the first time in his career. Yes, his overall touches were down as the Seahawks employed a split between him and Zach Charbonnet, but Walker's advanced analytics stand out.
Per Fantasy Points Data, he ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.28) and second in explosive run percentage (8.1%).
Meanwhile, Hunt, the primary ball carrier for the Chiefs last season, ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.10) and 46th in explosive run percentage (1.2%).
The upgrade at the position is massive, and from everything we've heard and seen at training camp, this is Walker's backfield, and Walker's backfield alone.
Smash the draft button in Round 2.
Chris Olave, WR - New Orleans Saints
Yahoo ADP - 33.2 (WR12)
Olave was elite last season. The best part, his efficiency and production didn't take a hit when rookie quarterback Tyler Shough took over in Week 8.
| Without Shough (Weeks 1-7) |
With Shough (Weeks 8-17) |
|
| Target share | 28.5% | 26.2% |
| Targets per route run | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Targets per game | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| Yards per route run | 1.89 | 2.23 |
| Rec. yards per game | 62.9 | 80.3 |
| First read target share | 33.3% | 34.1% |
| First downs per route run | 0.090 | 0.099 |
| Fantasy points per game | 15.0 | 18.2 |
Olave averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game and finished squarely inside the top 10 at the wide receiver position.
He did that with a new head coach/play-caller in Kellen Moore, a quarterback change halfway through the season, and one of the worst running games in the NFL.
Now, Olave heads into Year 2 with consistency at play-caller and quarterback, with a massive upgrade at running back in the form of Travis Etienne Jr.
Naysayers were skeptical of the Saints' WR1 repeating as a top-10 guy this season after the team took Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson with the eighth overall pick in the 2026 Draft.
That was a great pick, and Tyson looked the part in Training Camp, but the injury bug bit him again. He suffered his third hamstring injury in less than a year, which puts him on the shelf for up to two months.
His slow ramp-up will allow Olave to thrive once again with little competition for targets on an ascending offense with an undervalued second-year quarterback and an elite play-caller.
Olave is currently going off the board as the WR12, but he's got just as much upside as anybody not named Chase, Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Colston Loveland, TE - Chicago Bears
Yahoo ADP - 39.6 (TE3)
At just 21 years old, Loveland caught 70 balls for 906 yards and six touchdowns on 107 targets (including two playoff games).
He did that despite not getting a full-time role until Week 8 and playing alongside Cole Kmet for 15 games.
From then on, Loveland led the entire pass-catching group that included D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Kmet in the following categories:
- Targets per game (7.1) and target share (19.3%)
- Targets per route run (0.26)
- Receiving yards per game (63.7)
- Receiving yards market share (25.6%)
- Yards per route run (2.34)
- Red zone targets (14)
- First read target share (22.9%)
- First downs per route run (0.113)
- Fantasy points per route run (0.52)
At 21 years old! In a Ben Johnson offense that is notoriously difficult to learn. And Loveland put up those numbers on just a 65% route participation rate (25th among tight ends).
Moore is now gone, and Burden is dealing with a groin injury that will force him to miss a few weeks leading up to Week 1.
Odunze battled a foot injury last season, and while all signs point to him being in a good place health-wise, it's unclear whether that will affect him throughout a full 17-game season.
All of that opens the door to Loveland being at worst a top three option on a high-powered offense that is projected to play in a lot of competitive, high-scoring games as a result of their lackluster defense.
At best, Loveland is pass-catcher number one in a Ben Johnson offense led by an ascending star quarterback in Caleb Williams.
If camp highlights and talk are any indication of Loveland's ceiling in 2026, the sky's the limit.
Rome Odunze on how rare Colston Loveland’s skills are:
“Rare, diamond. It’s impressive to see his route running ability and then you get him down there blocking. His versatility is incredible and super glad that he’s on the crew and I learned a lot from him based on his routes… pic.twitter.com/ThPcu8AjpA
— BearsMuse (@ChiBearsMuse) August 19, 2026
Jaylen Waddle, WR - Denver Broncos
Yahoo ADP - 43.3 (WR19)
In an effort to expedite Bo Nix's development, the Broncos went out and traded a first- and third-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft for Waddle.
For those who argue he isn't in the "elite" category, I would strongly disagree. As a 22-year-old rookie, Waddle caught 104 balls for over 1,000 yards and six touchdowns on 140 targets.
His volume then took a big hit when the Dolphins brought in Tyreek Hill in 2022, but his efficiency went through the roof.
The next two seasons, Waddle averaged 2.83 and 2.67 yards per route run, respectively. He became a highly efficient big play maven, averaging over 14 yards per catch in three of the last four seasons.
Now, he becomes the unquestioned WR1 in Denver, and it's clear Sean Payton has a plan to maximize his talent.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton’s vision for Jaylen Waddle: slot to Z pic.twitter.com/jygcuHKK0r
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 5, 2026
Waddle spent the last four years playing alongside one of, if not the most elite wide receivers of our time. Hill was regularly earning a 30% target share with a 30% target rate.
Meanwhile, Waddle's biggest competition for targets this season, Courtland Sutton, had just a 19.6% target share and 21.1% target rate last season.
Sutton's yards per route run (1.85) ranked just 36th among receivers. Despite the Dolphins' struggles in 2025, Waddle posted an impressive 2.42 yards per route run.
Now, he enters a much-improved offensive environment with a head coach who wants to manufacture touches for him.
When A.J. Brown went from Tennessee to Philadelphia, his fantasy points per game jumped from 15.1 to 17.6. When Stefon Diggs went from Minnesota to Buffalo, his fantasy points per game jumped from 14.1 to 20.5.
Waddle is the next elite wide receiver to enter a better offensive environment that will take off midway through their career. Currently going as the WR19 off the board, prime Waddle is being drafted at his floor. Take advantage!
Ladd McConkey, WR - Los Angeles Chargers
Yahoo ADP - 45.9 (WR20)
There are a ton of great receivers in Rounds 3-4 this season. But out of all of them, McConkey might just be my favorite (after Waddle).
Keenan Allen can no longer hurt Ladd and his fantasy managers, as he's now with the Colts. It's crazy to think a 33-year-old Allen could have such an impact on McConkey's output in his sophomore season after what he did as a rookie, but he did.
We've also come to find out McConkey dealt with a multitude of injuries last season. That, along with a lack of layup targets, completely zapped his fantasy value.
Pretty good podcast by Sig and Gregg Rosenthal talked about how Ladd McConkey wasn’t healthy all of last season (dealt with a hip+knee injury in August, plus more in-season).
Also mentioned that there’s a LOT of injury news that we never hear about across the league (shocker) https://t.co/QYik2JBIqu
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) August 18, 2026
But 2026 looks a lot different. There's a massive play-caller upgrade with Mike McDaniel becoming the Chargers' offensive coordinator.
And despite reports of Quentin Johnston and Tre' Harris looking good in camp, it seems pretty obvious McConkey will benefit the most from the new-look offense.
Per Fantasy Points' Scott Barrett, McConkey ranks sixth among receivers in yards per route run on plays with pre-snap motion the last two years (2.56). Fittingly, McDaniel's offenses have led the league in pre-snap motion rate each of the last five years.
Just like Waddle, McConkey was elite as a rookie. Per Fantasy Points Data, he was eighth in yards per route run (2.57), 11th in first downs per route run (0.116), and 13th in fantasy points per route run (0.54).
McConkey finished as the WR18 on a per-game basis despite running just the 35th-most routes among wide receivers.
The Chargers also brought in two tight ends to play alongside Oronde Gadsden. Between Charlie Kolar, David Njoku, and Gadsden, we could see the Chargers live in 13 personnel more often.
Fewer receivers on the field is generally a positive boost for the one wideout. Most likely, that'll be McConkey.
More routes, more pre-snap motion, and better efficiency could elevate Ladd to top 10 status in 2026.
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