Fantasy Genius Week 4 Not-So-Serious Recap

October 6, 2026

Fantasy Genius brings you stats, stories, and rivalries every week of the season. Check out this hilarious, not-so-serious recap from Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season.

Yes, it's almost Week 5. Yes, there's a chance your team really did drop to 0-4. Our friends at Fantasy Genius feel your pain...

If this is your first time reading one of these blogs, please don't take anything said in here seriously. You will see very quickly that we're simply idiots with a keyboard. The data we pull is real, but you are reading the commentary of morons. Consider this fact before getting upset on the internet.

The TLDR version? This data is real. This "analysis" is fun. If you get a smile out of this info - or just like having tons of fun with your buddies throughout fantasy football season - think about syncing your league to Fantasy Genius in 2026...you can save 20% (and get three FREE months of RotoBaller's Big 4 Premium) when you use code BALLER at checkout!

Monday Night Madness

Another ho-hum week in the NFL. Just as we all suspected, Falcons RB B. Robinson imposed his will on the Saints defense, punching in 3 touchdowns.

Touches earpiece -- oh, that's my producers telling me that it was in fact Brian Robinson that scored 3 touchdowns on Monday Night Football, not Bijan Robinson. My mistake.

Brian Robinson Jr. hat trick!

@ATLvsNO on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/8rJtEJ40hU

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2026

Bijan Robinson also did his usual thing, rushing for 145 yards and two touchdowns. I haven't looked it up but I am confident that this is the first time that two players with the same first initial and last name have combined for 5 touchdowns for the same team.

The arc of the moral universe is long but it bends towards justice. Last week, we highlighted Trevor Lawrence taking a knee at the one-yard-line, effectively gifting Bhayshul Tuten a rushing touchdown. This week, Tuten had two touchdowns wiped off the board for penalties. Back to even.

The wildest swing of matchups came late Monday night, as it so often does. The Saints got the ball for their final drive down 45-17. It wouldn't have been totally unreasonable for them to sit their starters and move on to week 5. But they didn't do that.

Chris Olave caught three balls for 33 yards on that final drive before exiting with an injury (no word on the severity that I can find yet). In PPR leagues, 6.7% of Chris Olave managers won solely because of that final drive.

If he ends up genuinely injured, there will be no better image to encapsulate managers' feelings than this one:

With around one minute remaining in the game (still down 28), Tyler Shough threw a touchdown to Devaughn Vele. That play flipped 4.2% of Shough managers' matchups!

With around one minute remaining in the game (still down 28), Tyler Shough threw a touchdown to Devaughn Vele. That play flipped 4.2% of Shough managers' matchups!

That same play resulted in 8% of Devaugh Vele managers that started him winning their matchups. I wouldn't feel bad at all if I had started Vele...this catch was absolutely nasty. Probably should have been worth more points, if anything.

Devaughn Vele what a catch! 😳 https://t.co/MUPZEPaEgC

— ESPN (@espn) October 6, 2026

Winners and Losers

Let's take a quick look at fantasy team win rates based on started players from week 4.

1. Tetairoa McMillan - 79.7%
2. CeeDee Lamb - 76.0%
3. Kyren Williams - 71.5%
4. Nico Collins - 71.0%
5. Kenneth Walker - 68.6%
6. Javonte Williams - 67.5%
7. Bijan Robinson - 67.2%
8. Tee Higgins - 66.1%
9. Puka Nacua - 65.5%
10. Zay Flowers - 65.5%

And the nastier side, the players with the lowest win rates:

1. Ladd McConkey - 35.2%
2. Courtland Sutton - 35.5%
3. Kenyon Sadiq - 35.6%
4. Saquon Barkley - 36.2%
5. Rashee Rice - 36.8%
6. Emeka Egbuka - 37.8%
7. Kalif Raymond - 37.9%
8. Jeremiyah Love - 39.0%
9. TreVeyon Henderson - 39.6%
10. Parker Washington - 40.0%

Now What?

Using our start rates, we will be identifying players that are tough to figure out fantasy-wise. This may eventually make its way into its own article if folks are interested.

First up: Dalton Kincaid. After two excellent weeks to start the season, his start % got up into the 90s, only for his production to fall of a cliff in weeks 3 and 4. What do we do?!

Similar story for Travis Kelce. The writing may have been on the wall in week 3 after a two-catch performance but his start rate stayed above 90% in week 4. Kelce has had 3-or-fewer receptions in three out of four games. Something to consider.

OF COURSE Drake Maye delivers a QB1 performance on the very week that his start rate dips below 50%. I am thinking of dropping him to waivers just to save myself the pain of trying to figure out what to do with him.

Do you like looking at this data? We can keep including it as reference material in these articles. As the season goes on, it can be pretty fun to watch the bars and lines move in opposite directions as managers keep messing up when to start players.

Until next time...
-Mike Barton, Co-Founder, Fantasy Genius

Crack a smile while reading this article from Fantasy Genius co-founder, Mike Barton? Sync your fantasy football league with Fantasy Genius to receive hilarious weekly recaps (written by humans, not AI overlords) after every matchup! The perks don't end, as your entire league gets access to all the bells and whistles with one (very affordable!) premium subscription. Use code BALLER to save 20% for the whole 2026 season!

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