RADIO
Adam Koffler's fantasy football risers, fallers, sleepers, and busts heading into Week 13 of 2024. He identifies players at RB, WR, TE with rising fantasy values.
Week 12 of the 2024 season is in the books. That means another week of cold, hard data to analyze. We’ll try not to overreact, but instead, use logic and reasoning as the foundation for our decision-making in the weeks ahead.
Each week, we’ll take a look back at the previous week to see if our risers and fallers are still rising or still falling. Heading into Week 12, our biggest risers were Taysom Hill, Rome Odunze, Jonnu Smith, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith and JSN continue their meteoric rise, so a couple of great calls there. Our biggest fallers were Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Mark Andrews. Jones and Swift both had much better usage in Week 12. Meanwhile, Samuel continued his decline in the 49ers offense.
We won't mention Smith-Njigba and Smith again, and we also won't highlight Samuel for a second straight week. Instead, we'll talk about some other guys who saw their values rise or fall coming out of Week 12. Without further ado, here are some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into Week 13.
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Week 13 Fantasy Football Risers
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
Those waiting for Hockenson's role to expand were gifted just that in Week 12. He went from a 50% snap share and a 57% route participation rate in his first three games back to a 70% snap share and 76% route participation rate this past week.
Hockenson's first-read target share also shot up from 14.5% in Weeks 9-11 to 25% in Week 12. It was clear the Vikings wanted to get him involved early and often.
Smooth contested grab by T.J. Hockenson pic.twitter.com/Kpij27orvv
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 24, 2024
Hockenson has now seen nine targets in two of his last three games despite not playing in a full-time capacity. The usage uptick in Week 12 should provide a very solid floor and a much higher ceiling for the Vikings tight end in weeks to come.
Remember, he's also getting accustomed to playing with a new quarterback, so there was a bit of an adjustment period there. That adjustment period seems to have come to a close in Week 12. Not to mention some friendly matchups await Hockenson and the Vikings for the remainder of the season.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Irving saw the post-bye week rookie bump in Week 12. Not only were his 18 touches a season-high, but he ran more routes (20) than backfield mate Rachaad White (11) for the first time this season. We're used to seeing White get the targets, but this weekend, it was Irving with six targets to White's one.
Irving was deserving of more work coming out of the bye, given how good he's been this season. He's second among running backs in missed forced tackles per touch, behind just James Conner.
Missed tackles forced per touch at RB:
36% - James Conner
35% - Bucky Irving
33% - Kenneth Walker(Source: @FantasyPtsData)
Did not think we'd see anyone approach James Conner, but Bucky might be coming for the crown. https://t.co/Rbdj0e6f9Y
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 25, 2024
Given how well Irving has been running, we should expect this trend to continue in the coming weeks. He gets the Panthers twice (including in most leagues' championships in Week 17), the Raiders, and the Cowboys. Just one tough matchup remains against the Chargers in Los Angeles.
Even with White and Sean Tucker getting some touches, expect Irving to lead the backfield the rest of the way. Congratulations to those who have been patient with the rookie this season. It's going to pay off.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Last week, Jones was one of the biggest fallers as it appeared the Vikings were comfortable giving Cam Akers nearly 50% of the workload. Well, how the tables have turned.
In Week 12, Jones played on 79% of the snaps and had 25 touches to Akers' four. His RB opportunity share jumped from 57% in Week 11 to 86% in Week 12. He turned his 25 touches into 129 yards and a touchdown. What's even more telling for his future value is how Kevin O'Connell stuck with Jones even after his fumble.
Aaron Jones joined me post-game. We talked about the resilient victory, but listen to his raw humility regarding his first quarter goal line fumble…
“I told Coach thank you for sticking with me…”
Aaron Jones is one of one💪@NFLGameDay @nflnetwork #SKOL pic.twitter.com/w6mQauWgFY
— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) November 24, 2024
It also appears Jones is as close to 100% healthy as he's going to get after suffering a rib injury in Week 10. Favorable matchups against the Cardinals, Falcons, and Bears (all in Minnesota) await Jones and the Vikings in the next three weeks. Enjoy the ride into the fantasy football playoffs.
Devaughn Vele, Denver Broncos
Vele has been trending up the last few weeks. So much so that his numbers are starting to look eerily similar to another very good slot wide receiver in this league:
Devaughn Vele’s last three games are giving me big time Khalil Shakir vibes
Vele last three:
◽️ 67% snap share
◽️ 6 targets/game
◽️ 61.7 yards/game
◽️ 78% catch rateShakir in healthy games this season:
◽️ 62% snap share
◽️ 7.1 targets/game
◽️ 64.4 yards/game
◽️ 84% catch rate— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) November 26, 2024
In Week 12, Vele tied Courtland Sutton with a first-read target share of 28.6% (per Fantasy Points Data). However, the rookie bested the veteran in yards per route run (3.33 vs. 3.03) and targets per route run (38% vs. 31%).
Vele again only played on 65% of the snaps and saw just a 55% route participation rate. But as he continues to earn Bo Nix and the coaching staff's trust, he's going to continue to get more opportunities.
#Broncos head coach Sean Payton on rookie WR Devaughn Vele:
“Very quickly we’ve seen his growth. He’s got strong hands in traffic… he reminds me a lot of Marques Coltson.”
“In our staff meeting 20 minutes ago I said we gotta continue to find touches for him” pic.twitter.com/m5gzfSVoNg
— Michael O’Hara (@MOH_FFB) November 25, 2024
Up next is a favorable matchup against a Cleveland Browns team allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Then, in the fantasy playoffs, he gets the Colts, Chargers, and Bengals, all of whom allow over 19 fantasy points per game to the position.
Other Risers: D'Andre Swift, Noah Brown, Jordan Addison, Jaylen Waddle
Week 13 Fantasy Football Fallers
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
From Weeks 7 to 10, Otton had a first-read target share of 28.3% and a first downs per route run (1D/RR) rate of 0.109 (per Fantasy Points Data). In Mike Evans' first game back from injury in Week 12, Otton's first-read target share dropped to just 8.7%, while his 1D/RR dropped to just 0.050.
Despite the positive game script vs. the Giants, Otton's usage was drastically different with Evans back in the lineup. In four games without Evans, Otton averaged 9.8 targets per game. In seven games with Evans, he's averaging just 4.9 targets per game.
Otton gets a nice matchup in Week 13 vs. the Panthers; however, the Bucs are also heavy road favorites. That could lead to less passing from Baker Mayfield and more rushing from the three-headed monster in the backfield.
You're probably still starting him as a back-end TE1, but, if you were lucky enough to scoop Taysom Hill off the waiver wire, that's probably your guy in Week 13 (and even beyond).
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Sean Payton cannot be trusted with his backfield usage. One week it's Williams, the next week it's Audric Estime, and the following week it's Jaleel McLaughlin. As soon as one of these guys fails to produce positive yards on just one or two carries, it's on to the next.
Williams did receive 12 opportunities in Week 12, but they went for a total of just four yards. He rushed eight times for -2 yards and caught two of four targets for just six yards.
Here’s 6 out of 8 carries from Javonte Williams today😯 pic.twitter.com/J05r2TWu48
— ᴄʜᴀsᴇ (@BolieveInNix) November 25, 2024
McLaughlin, meanwhile, rushed seven times for 44 yards. He looked like the guy with a lot more juice. Estime contributed three carries for 15 yards as well.
Needless to say, this backfield usage is going to change every single week. If one guy isn't performing, Payton is going to ride the other guys who are. There's no telling if Williams will be that guy, but for now, it's impossible to have any confidence in starting him, regardless of the matchup.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson was a workhorse in Weeks 10 and 11, averaging 22.5 touches per game. Then Week 12 happened, and Stevenson was back down to just eight touches. Meanwhile, Antonio Gibson had seven touches, while JaMycal Hasty had three. Thus, Stevenson's RB opportunity share dropped from 80% in Week 11 to just 44% in Week 12.
The difference? The Patriots trailed the Dolphins the entire game, while they were competitive with the Rams in Week 11 and dominated the Bears in Week 10. Therein lies the problem for Stevenson. All of a sudden, he's a game-script-dependent running back. Gibson ran more routes than him vs. the Dolphins (17 vs. 14). Stevenson played on a season-low 42% of the snaps in the lopsided loss.
In games he's scored a touchdown, Stevenson is averaging 20.74 fantasy points per game. In games he hasn't found the end zone, that number drops down to just 6.3 fantasy points per game.
On paper, it appears the Patriots have some favorable matchups on the ground for the rest of the season. The problem is they could be playing from behind in all of them (Colts, Cardinals, Bills, and Chargers).
His best chance to get back on track would be this coming week vs. the Colts at home, but all bets are off following the Patriots' bye in Week 14.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
See Bucky Irving in "Risers" section.
Other Fallers: Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, James Conner, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
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