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Nicho's top fantasy football wide receiver busts. Potential early round avoids and landmines for WRs in 2026, including George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Davante Adams, and more.
As much as I love talking about all my favorite draft-day sleepers and targets, in this article I will be selecting five overvalued wide receivers who fantasy managers should avoid.
All these wide receivers are solid talents, but they come with significant risk at average draft position (ADP). Sometimes it's the offensive environment, the quarterback, or added competition in the wide receiver room that makes them someone to avoid.
Ultimately, all of these players are talented individuals, but drafting them could derail your fantasy season. Let's dive into it.
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George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
Yahoo ADP - 22.0 (WR9)
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens broke out massively in 2025, finishing as the WR5, earning 137 targets and hauling in 93 of them for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns.
He was dealt to the Cowboys after spending his first three seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it was a match made in heaven. Pickens excels at what Dak Prescott likes to do: push the ball down the field.
Pickens finished seventh at the position in air yards, third in red-zone targets, and fifth in fantasy points per game (17.2). Under the hood was also solid, with a 2.40 yards per route run (YPRR) and ninth in the NFL in first downs per route run. So, why is he a fade?
For starters, he benefited significantly from CeeDee Lamb missing three games and dealing with a high ankle sprain for a majority of the season. Lamb hauled in three touchdowns, which was a career low for him. Lamb enters the 2026 season fully healthy with a chip on his shoulder and remains the alpha receiver in this offense.
Nasty route from CeeDee Lamb for the touchdown #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/vVxuFtEGf0
— Tommy Yarrish (@tommy_yarrish) August 8, 2026
Pickens was 25th in target share, 30th in target rate, 93rd in designed target share, and 73rd in separation. While he finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game, he was ninth in expected fantasy points per game and coming off a career high in touchdowns and targets, which will be difficult to replicate.
While that is solid production overall, Pickens is being drafted as a top-10 receiver behind guys like A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave. All guys are the clear alpha receiver on their team and won't be capped by having another superstar demanding the ball.
Players to target instead: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, and Chris Olave
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
Yahoo ADP - 41.0 (WR20)
Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan finished the 2025 season winning the AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, so how could he possibly be a landmine?
The answer here is simple, and it's quarterback Bryce Young. Throughout his three years, the former first overall pick in 2023 has averaged 180.2 passing yards per game. Last season, albeit his "best" season, he averaged 188.2 yards per game.
McMillan is a special talent; he finished the 2025 season as the WR15 with 122 targets, 70 receptions, 1,014 yards, and seven touchdowns. While the surface looked solid, he was 20th at the position in fantasy points per game with 12.4, and 18th in expected fantasy points per game with 12.7.
McMillan needs target volume to succeed, and while he earned a solid 25.4 percent target share (13th), he was 31st in targets per route run, 54th in designed targets, 46th in average depth of target (aDOT), and 74th in catchable target rate. Down the stretch last season, Jalen Coker was producing at a high level as well.
Coker was objectively better than Tetairoa McMillan for the final five games of the 2025 season (after the Panthers’ bye week): https://t.co/IgEPQCAs5W pic.twitter.com/3BFNpSgzXs
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 12, 2026
While it's encouraging that the Panthers are looking to get him more looks in motion and in the slot, where he rarely played in 2025 (2.5 percent motion rate and 75th in slot snaps), unless Carolina's passing offense takes a significant step forward, I'm not convinced those changes are enough to unlock the ceiling you're paying for at his current ADP.
With McMillan, it isn't a question of talent. It's whether the offense around him can produce enough passing volume and quality opportunities for him to make the leap you're paying for.
Players to target instead: Emeka Egbuka, Christian Watson, or Jaylen Waddle
Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams
Yahoo ADP - 51.0 (WR25)
Age is just a number, right? Well, 33-year-old Davante Adams has been able to defy the odds of an aging wide receiver, as he finished as the WR8 last season, WR14 in 2024, and the WR11 in 2023. However, one thing changed drastically last season.
Adams only saw 114 targets last season and hauled in 60 of them for 789 yards, which was his lowest yardage output since his second season in the league back in 2015. He saved his season by converting in the red zone and on touchdowns, which is an extremely volatile production stat to count on year in and year out.
In a season in which Matthew Stafford was aiming for his first MVP, Adams saw the second-most red-zone targets and was fourth in the NFL in red-zone target share. His yards per target (6.9) were 75th in the NFL, and his yards per reception (13.2) were 41st in the NFL last season.
He also struggled to get separation, as he was 92nd in target separation (1.03) and 73rd in YAC. All this to say, for him to pay off at this value, he is going to need to put together another 12-plus touchdown season, which he has done in his career multiple times; however, when you combine his age, decline in efficiency, and Puka Nacua being the clear alpha on the team, he is a clear fade for me.
Another big week from Puka Nacua 😈
- 7 catches
- 167 receiving yards
- 2 TDs pic.twitter.com/VOsn69xrAn— NFL (@NFL) December 8, 2025
When you look at some receivers who are going around him, I would target guys like Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, and Rome Odunze. All guys are younger and have more upside to their game at this point in their career.
Players to target instead: Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, and Rome Odunze
DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills
Yahoo ADP - 56.0 (WR27)
Newly acquired Buffalo Bills wide receiver DJ Moore now joins forces with one of, if not the best, quarterbacks in the game, Josh Allen. The fantasy community has seen his ADP steam up to the fourth round, and I'm not buying it.
Moore enters his age-29 season, and former offensive coordinator and now head coach of the Bills, Joe Brady, plays a run-heavy offense that likes to spread the wealth. The Bills still have Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Joshua Palmer, Dawson Knox, and fourth-round rookie Skyler Bell.
Now, I realize none of those names pop off the charts as elite talents; however, Allen likes to use all of his weapons and get everyone involved, and he himself is heavily involved in the rushing game alongside All-Pro running back James Cook III.
Moore was the cardio king last year, running the 10th-most routes and earning only a 15.3 percent target rate, which is calculated as targets per route run. His efficiency dipped significantly as he was 72nd in YPRR (1.26) and 74th in FDPRR (74th). He averaged 10.0 fantasy points per game, which was 41st in the NFL, and he finished as the WR32 last season.
Since Stefon Diggs left the Bills, the fantasy community has been excited about Josh Allen's next WR1.
First, it was Keon Coleman after they drafted him in the 2nd round.
Then, it was Amari Cooper after they traded a 3rd round pick for him.
There was even some Josh Palmer hype…
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 8, 2026
While Moore has been a model of health, playing in 17 games in five of the past six seasons, he has finished as WR23 or worse in fantasy points per game in five of the last six seasons. When I am analyzing players, I prioritize fantasy points per game over whole-season outputs.
I’m fading the assumption that going from a crowded wide receiver situation in Chicago to an Allen-led offense shouldn't automatically make him a fourth-round fantasy value.
Players to target instead: Christian Watson, Mike Evans, Rome Odunze, or Carnell Tate
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
Yahoo ADP - 58.0 (WR29)
This guy's fast and he's explosive. I get it. Jameson Williams is a big-play machine just waiting to happen, as he was fifth in yards per target and reception last season and eighth in receiving yards with 1,117 yards on 65 receptions.
But don't let that fool you; he is one of the more boom-or-bust options in fantasy football, and his production is based on capitalizing on the big plays. He was 44th in the NFL in target share and 72nd in the NFL in target rate while running the fifth-most routes in the league. Additionally, he is not involved in the red zone, evidenced by his nine red-zone targets (50th) and 10.2 percent red-zone target share (77th).
Williams is a one-trick pony, and while he has weekly winning upside, he also has weekly losing downside. When you play that out through a 17-game season, it becomes too difficult to trust every week. You don't want to put yourself in that situation. Mostly because of his ADP.
With Amon-Ra St. Brown in the picture to go along with Jahmyr Gibbs and second-year receiver Isaac TeSlaa, he will never be a target hog. If you like to live life on the wild side, Williams is your guy. But when you are investing a fourth-round pick in it, it becomes too risky.
That was tough, @TeslaaIsaac 😤 pic.twitter.com/UFPNGESlBy
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) August 8, 2026
He is going around players we've discussed at length in this article, like Mike Evans, Watson, Odunze, and Carnell Tate, who all have better weekly floors while still providing upside.
Players to target instead: Mike Evans, Christian Watson, Rome Odunze, or Carnell Tate
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Below are some popular searches and comparisons from our Who To Draft tool for 2026 drafts for George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Davante Adams, DJ Moore, Jameson Williams:
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