Wide Receiver Sleepers and Breakouts: Vacated Air Yards and Targets (2026)

August 18, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo outlines which fantasy football wide receivers have huge opportunities in 2026 based on the amount of vacated air yards and targets on their teams. Draft these WRs knowing they will outperform their ADP.

Every year we attempt to assess which players can perform as well or better than they did the year before and target them in fantasy football. Like any other sport, just getting on the field for as many plays as possible is half the battle.

But it's also about getting involved while you're out there. Logging snaps is one thing, but earning targets is another. Every play and every possession is valuable in the NFL, and only one receiver can be targeted on any given play. Target shares for receivers are like usage rates for basketball (hopefully, some of you are fantasy basketball players, too). We want to draft receivers who have a chance at earning a relatively high target share every week.

An important exercise that I do every season is to start by looking at which teams have turned over their rosters on offense and opened up usage opportunities for this year's crop of receivers. In this piece, I'll break down which teams have the biggest opportunities in vacated air yards and targets and identify some players from those teams who could be solid picks in fantasy drafts as a result.

Vacated Air Yards and Targets Equal Opportunity

What we're looking for here are teams that lost some of their top pass-catchers in the offseason. What I like to do is look at both vacated targets (for volume) and air yards (for potential quality of targets).

Not all targets are created equal! That's why a metric like air yards is valuable.

Air yards refer to all the yardage from the line of scrimmage to the intended receiver on every passing attempt. Looking at air yards for an individual player helps us understand how they are deployed within their offense. Someone like Christian Watson (17.6 air yards per target) was targeted on downfield passes far more often than most other receivers, while a player like Khalil Shakir (3.5 air yards per target) saw most of his targets on short throws.

So, looking at the vacated air yards and targets for entire teams (and comparing them) gives us a sense of what types of targets and routes may be available for the receivers on those teams this year. We can even look at how many red zone targets were vacated on each team to try and find some touchdown upside for receivers, too.

Vacated Air Yards: All Positions

Wow, Miami leads the pack in vacated air yards, and it's not particularly close. Jaylen Waddle's departure is the main culprit, but don't forget that Tyreek Hill played in four games, too. Darren Waller was fourth on the team in targets and is gone as well. Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich are literally the only holdovers from last year's group of pass-catchers (other than DeVon Achane, that is).

Vacated Targets: All Positions

The Dolphins are going to be at the top, or near it, on all these lists. But in terms of each team's percentage of vacated targets, the Washington Commanders are a close second, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have the same number of raw vacated targets at 240.

The Commanders' top two targeted receivers have departed. Tight end Zach Ertz retired, while Deebo Samuel went back to San Francisco in free agency. Chris Moore had 23 targets as well, mainly late in the season, and is now in Baltimore.

You won't find any Steelers in this article because a lot of those vacated targets come from the departure of running backs (Kenneth Gainwell) and tight ends (Jonnu Smith). Yes, Calvin Austin's 55 targets are still up for grabs, but Pittsburgh's percentage of targets vacated specifically by receivers is just 44%. Let's take a look at those numbers next.

Percentage of Vacated WR Targets

Here's where we really want to focus for this article, and where the Forty-Niners and Eagles both pop in a big way. San Francisco has to replace the production of Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne, and now will also be without Ricky Pearsall for the entire season, too.

The Eagles traded A.J. Brown and his 121 targets to New England but also will be without Jahan Dotson, whose 36 targets were the fifth-most on the team and third-most of any wide receiver.

Percentage of Vacated Targets Inside Ten-Yard Line

We see a lot of the same teams repeated on these lists, but one team that catches my attention here is the Chicago Bears, who lost both D.J. Moore and Olamide Zaccheaus this offseason. That duo combined for nine targets inside the ten-yard line and five receiving touchdowns.

Mid-Round Values

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (53)

Note: All ADP is from Yahoo and appears in parentheses after each player's team.

What a perfect segue to Rome Odunze! Are you sick of hearing about Luther Burden III yet from what seems like every other fantasy analyst? Burden's recent injury is finally putting a damper on his preseason hype train, and now our sneaky Odunze value is probably not going to last much longer.

A toe tap TD from @RomeOdunze 🔥 pic.twitter.com/hdPPLgUz2j

— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 8, 2026

Odunze was limited by a toe injury last season, but still managed to find the end zone six times in 12 games. I think he, along with Colston Loveland, stand to soak up more of those goal-line targets. He's a much bigger target down there than Burden, who was not targeted inside the ten even once in 2025.

Odunze's ADOT of 13.9 was nearly twice that of Burden's 7.7, meaning he's the guy who is running the routes downfield that we want. I get Burden's appeal in PPR league, and I think his role will be substantial, but Odunze is the guy with more upside for big plays and touchdowns, and he's still going a few picks later in drafts. That feels like a mistake to me.

Mike Evans, San Francisco 49ers (58)

There's nothing but opportunity in front of Evans this season in San Francisco, but can we trust the soon-to-be 33-year-old receiver to stay healthy? He played in just eight games last year and saw his per-game stats fall off a cliff, too.

He's been a touchdown machine for most of his career, though, averaging 10 touchdowns per 17-game season. I will say that I liked him a bit more before San Francisco signed Deebo Samuel, who I think will eat into his target share a bit (though he has health concerns of his own).

Still, the possibility of drafting a WR1 on a good team in the fifth round is tempting, and if Evans does stay healthy, he's more than likely to outperform this ADP. It's a high-risk, high-reward pick.

Late-Round Values

Stefon Diggs, Washington Commanders (86)

The value here is drying up a bit, as Diggs was just being drafted around pick 100 a few days ago. However, I'm still interested as Washington needs reliable pass-catchers in the worst way.

I've never been a big Terry McLaurin guy, and my issue with drafting him again this year is that he's very reliant on big plays down the field for his value. With the Commanders having a pretty poor offensive line and Jayden Daniels now missing his left tackle, Laremy Tunsil, for the season, I'd rather invest in those receivers who are going to be running shorter routes like Diggs.

Diggs is a possession receiver at this stage of his career, but we saw Deebo Samuel have some solid value in that role last year in Washington. And Chig Okonkwo, as much as I like him, isn't the same type of tight end that Zach Ertz was. I look for Diggs to likely become Daniels' new safety blanket.

Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers (107)

The Packers lost both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks to free agency, putting Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Golden all in the mix for more targets this season. Reed is being drafted a few spots ahead of Golden, but I'm not sure I understand why.

We know who Reed is at this point in his career. He's a slot receiver and a speedster who they might use on gadget plays or in the run game. He's going to have a hard time getting on the field in two-receiver sets, with Golden and Watson being bigger targets who can win down the field.

The Jordan Love and Matthew Golden connection is going feed families. #Packers pic.twitter.com/CvMysIf0jS

— Kyle Malzhan (@KyleMalzhan) August 8, 2026

Those are the targets that are being vacated by Wicks (11.2 ADOT) and Doubs (12.8 ADOT) anyway. I don't think Reed's role changes much, but Golden has the opportunity to emerge as the WR2 behind Watson. Jordan Love throws a nice deep ball, and the Packers want to run the football and then stretch the defense by taking shots down the field in play-action.

De'Zhaun Stribling, San Francisco 49ers (116)

I'm usually looking to avoid a hyped-up rookie who is rapidly moving up the draft board, but I am not sure that applies to Stribling in this situation.

An impressive preseason debut for @49ers' second-round pick De'Zhaun Stribling:

7 catches
63 yards

All in the first half 🙌

TENvsSF on @nflnetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/VxhMoyrhFb

— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2026

Not only has he looked great in camp and his first preseason game, but he's also competing for targets with two older, injury-prone receivers in Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. I expect him to emerge as a real weapon for Brock Purdy in this 49ers' passing game, even if there aren't injuries to the other two wideouts. He played a lot of football in five years of college, and might be ready to hit the ground running a bit sooner than other rookies.

Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145)

Do you remember when McMillan was a league-winner in the second half of the 2024 season? Because I do! McMillan caught seven touchdown passes for Tampa in their final five games of that season, but then dealt with a neck injury that kept him out of the first 13 weeks of the 2025 campaign.

Tampa Bay isn't at the top of the lists I posted earlier, but they're still on there as they have to replace the production of veterans Mike Evans and Sterling Shepard, who combined for 115 targets last season.

Chris Godwin, who has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, is set to be Tampa's WR2, and their top receiver, Emeka Egbuka, is now dealing with a toe injury that could linger into the regular season. I think I'd rather have McMillan at pick 145 than take a risk on Godwin's health at pick 85.

Dontayvion Wicks, Philadelphia Eagles (170)

Boy, I really should have finished this article last week, as Wicks has seen his ADP jump nearly 40 spots lately. The reports out of camp about Wicks have been incredibly positive, and he looks to have a beat on the WR2 job in Philly thanks to a lingering hamstring injury that has kept rookie Makai Lemon out of practice for two weeks.

Hurts to Dontayvion Wicks

Couldn’t have thrown it any better in tight coverage pic.twitter.com/HXLWZ0VI14

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) August 5, 2026

Wicks was badly underutilized in Green Bay and a victim of being in a crowded wide receiver room on a team that wants to run the football. DeVonta Smith is the unquestioned WR1 in this offense, but I think Wicks and Dallas Goedert are great picks this year as they'll have to help soak up the vacated targets left behind by A.J. Brown. I just don't feel all that comfortable drafting Makai Lemon when he's missing valuable time to get reps with Jalen Hurts. Wicks appears to be thriving and could be ready for a big breakout in Philly's newly redesigned offense.

Lottery Tickets Worth Drafting

Zachariah Branch, Atlanta Falcons (226)

Atlanta took Branch in the third round of this year's draft and badly needs another receiver to emerge to help take the pressure off Drake London.

TRENDING: Zachariah Branch’s route running has been SOMETHING ELSE.

Branch has reportedly been “terrorizing” Falcons’ DB’s in 1-on-1 situations at camp.

Several NFL scouts reportedly thought Branch’s game “resembled” Zay Flowers (Ravens WR) leading up to the NFL Draft.

The… pic.twitter.com/vu0GeShEs1

— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) July 31, 2026

Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zacchaeus are technically ahead of him on the depth chart, but Branch is easily the best athlete of the three and has been turning heads in Falcons camp with his route-running. I think Zaccheaus is his biggest competition at the moment, as Branch is likely best-suited as a slot receiver. He's a player who could start slow, but earn more opportunities as the season goes along.

Caleb Douglas, Miami Dolphins (239)

The Dolphins...we finally came back to where this thing started! What a mess of a team, and no part of their roster is messier than the receiver room. Malik Washington is the lone holdover from last year, with Miami bringing in guys like Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Jalen Reagor in free agency.

They also drafted three rookie wideouts, taking Douglas and Chris Bell in the third round, and Kevin Coleman Jr. in the fifth round.

Caleb Douglas oh my 😮

MIAvsWAS
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/21vkGuMeTb

— NFL (@NFL) August 14, 2026

Douglas is an impressive specimen, running a 4.39 40-yard dash and measuring six-foot-four. It's just one catch in one preseason game, but Douglas's strong showing has him rocketing up draft boards. He's listed as a starter on their official depth chart, and someone has to catch the ball in Miami, right (besides Achane and Greg Dulcich, that is).

Even if Miami is pretty bad this year, as we expect them to be, that should lead to a lot of more pass-heavy game scripts and potential garbage time production for their pass-catchers. Take a flyer on Douglas with your last pick; there's nothing but opportunity for Miami pass-catchers this season!

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