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We continue our fantasy baseball dynasty rankings analysis with the first base position. RotoBaller writers Kyle Richardson, Chris Zolli, Pierre Camus, and I have come up with our preseason rankings to give you a sense of player values as early as possible.
In a dynasty league, it can be tough to decide between a proven veteran or a high-upside youngster. It is important to think about your own team when considering these rankings; if you're a rebuilding squad playing for the future, consider a younger player in a tier.
Without any more delay, let's take a peek at the 2018 starting pitcher dynasty rankings for February. Be sure to also check out more of our staff's initial 2018 fantasy baseball rankings and analysis columns for other formats including mixed leagues, dynasty leagues, 2018 prospects and more.
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2018 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Rankings: Starting Pitcher
Tier 1
No surprises here. When these guys are healthy, they're the best in the game. Syndergaard is the youngest of the bunch, but he also has the most injury risk, after tearing his lat last season and throwing just 30 1/3 innings. He's healthy entering 2018, though, and he could put up another monster season.
Tier 2
33-year-old Max Scherzer falls to Tier 2, as it's not clear how long he'll be able to continue as an elite pitcher. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Luis Severino is nearly a decade younger but should be almost just as effective this season. Severino had a nasty 29.4% K-rate and a 6.5% walk-rate in his first full season in the majors, and he can make a break for Tier 1 if his success continues this season.
Tier 3
Aaron Nola is one of my favorite names from this tier. The 24-year-old is arguably an ace already, as he had a 2.64 Deserved Run Average in 168 innings last year, along with a 3.27 FIP. His dominant curveball registered an 18.3 pVAL in 2017 with a 39.2% K-rate. He is another guy who can continue climbing the ranks as fantasy players recognize his value.
Shoehi Ohtani landed in this tier despite having never thrown a pitch in the major leagues. There's a ton of upside here, but also plenty of risks. He already has damage in his UCL, and it will be interesting to see how he will handle getting plate appearances as a DH. Ohtani should be the first overall selection in every dynasty league's first-year player draft, where he is easily better than any minor leaguer or foreign player.
Tier 4
Lance McCullers has an insanely high ceiling, which he showed in his age 23 season where he posted a 25.8% K-rate and a 3.10 FIP. McCullers has yet to throw an entire season's worth of innings, and he probably won't in 2018 either. However, he is still so young that it's worth investing in - and he should perform well on a per-inning basis this season.
Alex Reyes was a top five prospect last year before tearing his UCL and missing all of 2017. He's incredibly talented, as evidenced by his 1.57 ERA in 46 innings in 2016, but he is projected to be out until at least May as the Cardinals ease him back into action. Reyes's 2018 is pretty unclear, as the Cardinals may use him in the minor leagues or in the bullpen. However, his long-term potential shouldn't be questioned.
Tier 5
Zack Godley is undervalued here in Tier 5 - his 2017 performance was legitimate and repeatable. Godley had a 3.32 xFIP and a 3.14 DRA. With a 26.3% K-rate and a 55.3% groundball rate, batters are hardly ever getting solid contact off of him. And best of all, Arizona will be implementing a humidor this season at Chase Field, which will be an extreme benefit to pitchers. Buy in while he's at this price.
Tier 6
If you have the chance to buy low on Blake Snell before the season starts, do it now. He took a huge step forward in the second half of last season when he changed the position from where he pitched, moving to the middle of the rubber on the mound. This dropped his walk rate from 14.5% in the first half to 8.0% in the second, which he paired with a 23.7% K-rate and a 3.49 ERA.
Tier 7
Cole Hamels is a guy you might want to avoid here. Things went south for him in 2017, where he posted a poor 17.1% K-rate and a 4.20 ERA. At 34 years old, Hamels probably won't be turning things around. He only made 24 starts last year, and may not stay healthy enough for a full season - even if he does, it likely won't be innings that are worth owning.
Tiers 8-10
Dinelson Lamet may be a diamond in the rough. His 28.7% K-rate is outstanding, and while his full season ERA looks ugly, it was only 3.80 in the second half of 2017. Petco Park is arguably the best pitcher's park in all of baseball, so the 25-year-old can provide some sneaky value.
Tiers 11-15
There are a ton of names here, but one in particular to keep an eye on is Robert Stephenson. The former top prospect is still only 25 years old, and he had a 3.30 second half ERA in 60 innings. It's a long shot, but there's a chance he puts it all together in 2018 and delivers a great return on investment.
More Dynasty Leagues Analysis
