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Zach's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/4/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props.
Welcome Back, RotoBallers! It is the first Friday of September, and Major League Baseball has entered the final month of the regular season with playoff races heating up. Of the 16 games on the schedule this Friday, seven are divisional contests, including a doubleheader in Cleveland, where the Guardians host the Tigers. With a few intriguing interleague series as well, it should be a great Friday of action from the diamonds all across the scoreboard. With so many options to pick from, some strong home run props stand out based on players' current form, matchup, and the game environment. Let's swing for the fences with today's home run props!
In this post, I'll highlight my four favorite home run props for this Friday. Even though I like these plays a lot, it's important to remember that no matter how juicy things look, home runs are hard to hit, which is why the payoffs are so nice. Don’t overdo it just because the data looks friendly. Make sure to also check out the RotoBaller Discord, where you can find input from all our experts, including more home run spots and some great strikeout prop picks.
Below are my favorite four home run props from MLB games on Friday, September 4, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/4/2026)
Jake Bauers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+308, Novig)
Let's get started with one of the early games, as the Brewers roll into homer-friendly Great American Ball Park to take on the Reds this weekend. Bauers and the Brewers will face Rhett Lowder, and the weather forecast looks favorable for offense with temperatures over 90 degrees and the wind blowing out.
Bauers has had a remarkable season from the middle of the Brewers' lineup, hitting a team-high 23 home runs with a .381 wOBA that is almost 50 points higher than he has posted in any season in his career. The lefty hasn't homered in nine games, which helps his odds be more favorable in this matchup, but he has hit four home runs since August 1. His most recent long ball was this smash against the Braves.
Jake Bauers in August
22-76
4 HR (T-7th in MLB)
13 RBI
.289 AVG
.444 OBP (3rd in MLB)
.931 OPS#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/m4DZJh5QSP— PaceBall (@paceball__) August 31, 2026
While that home run was at home against a lefty, he has done most of his damage against righties. He has a 14.1% barrel rate on that side of his splits and has been even better against righties on the road with a 15.9% barrel rate and a .420 xwOBA. Buaers' barrel rate would make him a lefty to target in any favorable road matchup, but especially this one against Lowder in Cincinnati.
Lowder allowed six homers in his five starts in August and has given up 16 long balls in his 24 games this season. Lefties like Bauers have hit 12 of those 16 blasts, posting a .455 SLG, .350 wOBA, and an 11.7% barrel rate against Lowder this season. Bauers is 5-for-8 against Lowder in the past with a pair of home runs.
Carter Jensen OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+432, DraftKings)
Jensen is coming off a huge day on Thursday. The 23-year-old lefty had a double, a triple, and his 22nd home run of the season to help the Royals avoid a sweep by the Marlins.
Carter Jensen rips a 440-foot blast to give the @Royals the lead! pic.twitter.com/bFelX1iHnK
— MLB (@MLB) September 4, 2026
His monster game wasn't just an outlier, though, since Jensen has been thriving out of the leadoff spot for the Royals with great numbers over the last few weeks. Jensen has hit six homers in his last 12 games while going 14-for-43 (.326) with a 60.6% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate. Hitting at the top of the order gives him a few extra at-bats, and he has been smashing everything he sees over the last few weeks.
On Friday night, he'll see righty Jameson Taillon, who is expected to come off the IL to start the first game of this series between the Blue Jays and Royals in Kansas City. Taillon has made 17 starts this season with the Cubs and Jays, allowing 26 homers in 84 innings. On the road, he has a 7.19 ERA and 16 homers against him in just 41 1/3 innings.
Lefties like Jensen have a .384 wOBA, a 15.5% barrel rate, and 14 of those 26 home runs against Taillon this season. On the other side of the matchup, Jensen has hit 19 of his 22 homers off righties like Taillon, and exactly half of his homers have come at home, where he has a .362 wOBA as compared to just a .301 wOBA on the road.
Jensen has been so locked in at the plate that he's a great value play at this price in Friday's home run props against Taillon.
