Was Drafting Alvin Kamara Good Process or Just Lucky?

March 25, 2018

Was selecting New Orleans Saints running back (RB) Alvin Kamara a sign of a smart fantasy owner's draft process or simply good luck? Taylor Maxston investigates.

The 2017 regular season featured several rookie running backs making immediate fantasy-relevant impacts on the teams that drafted them. Four rookie RB recorded top-15 finishes in standard scoring and top-10 finishes in PPR formats, making it clear that this season was one for rushers to challenge the previous fantasy narrative favoring the rise of the wide receiver. Any fantasy owners who managed to land one of these players was extremely happy to have had their contributions on their team, but was this year an indication of future prosperity or just an anomaly?

In this series, I will be taking a look at a running back from the 2017 NFL Draft class and analyzing whether fantasy owners should expect him to repeat on his early success for his sophomore season.

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara was the fantasy football steal of 2017. Owners who were smart enough to draft him or pick him up through the waiver wire ended up with the fourth ranked running back in standard formats and the third ranked running back in PPR formats. Although his 1,554 all-purpose yards are incredible in their own right, the mind-blowing stat that leaps out from Kamara's rookie campaign was his yards-per-touch totals and red zone efficiency. Kamara scored 13 times on 201 total touches while averaging 7.7 yards per touch, producing the highest single-season rate of production among all players with at least 200 touches in NFL history. While his 2017 production is undisputed, what should owners expect from Kamara going forward?

The Physical Tools

Kamara may not seem too intimidating with his 214 lb frame, but he easily makes up for his lack of bulk with a next level burst ability ranking in the 94th percentile (out of 100) according to PlayerProfiler.com. He is the perfect compliment to the between the tackles bruiser in Mark Ingram, but that didn't prevent the Saints from giving him his fair share of the rushing workload. Take, for example, Kamara's 74-yard touchdown run to open Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams; his ability to burst to top speed is available at flip of a switch and his twitchy rushing style ensures that he will capitalize on even the smallest of gaps that his offensive line opens up.

There is no question that Kamara will continue to receive scattered rushes on early snaps, but the security of his role on third down is what should make PPR owners excited. Head coach Sean Payton has surely appreciated Kamara's improved capabilities in pass protection, considering he has a knack for squaring up blitzers and protecting the Saints franchise quarterback in Drew Brees. Further, as I will discuss in the next section, many of Kamara's best fantasy games came from him being a sure-handed pass catcher. Even if his rushing production were to fall off in 2018, owners can bank on his 101 targets (third-most in the NFL last season) to give him a solid floor.

Bottom Line: Alvin Kamara was one of the most efficient and productive running backs in 2017 because of his lightning fast burst and remarkable efficiency with the opportunities he was given. His proficiency in pass protection will ensure his presence on the field and allow for many more big plays to come. 

Consistency of Production

The obvious first question is about workload splits between Kamara and his backfield-mate Mark Ingram. Here is a useful chart compiled by Andy Holloway of The Fantasy Footballers to show how the two split snaps from Week 1 to Week 17 (with the exception of Week 14, where Kamara exited early due to a concussion):

As the regular season progressed, so did the Saints' confidence in Kamara. After averaging only nine touches and 58 yards from scrimmage in his first four games, Kamara put up 14 touches per game and averaged 111 yards from scrimmage. His elite receiving grade of 92.7 ranked number one among 69 rookies that logged at least 18 targets in their rookie season and contributed to him only falling below 15 fantasy points per game in standard leagues twice after Week 4.

Ingram's presence in the backfield will help to keep Kamara healthy, but shouldn't cut much into his productivity. Kamara averaged 6.1 yards per carry to Ingram's 4.9 on 110 less carries while averaging 10.2 yards per reception to Ingram's 7.2. Fantasy owners should rejoice in the knowledge that even lower in-game usage rates won't substantially hinter him.

Bottom Line: Mark Ingram does not pose a significant threat to Alvin Kamara's production, which was consistently dominant on the ground and especially through the air. The New Orleans Saints offensive scheme capitalizes on all of Kamara's best features, making his floor one of the safest in fantasy football.

Team Reform

As a cherry on top of the sundae, the New Orleans Saints have done very little to alter their offense in the 2017 offseason so far. Quarterback Drew Brees has been signed to a fresh two-year, $50 million deal that keeps the Saints championship window open and it is unlikely that the team will take a running back of substance in the 2018 NFL Draft to compete with Kamara or Ingram for snaps. With the offensive line still in tact, there is little reason to think Kamara's production could take a steep fall from grace from offseason moves.

Verdict: Lucky or Good?

The 'rise of the wide receiver' narrative that many pundits brought into 2017 fantasy drafts was half right. With the resurgence of the fantasy running back has come a new appreciation for pass protecting backs with incredible talent in the receiving game. Alvin Kamara exemplifies such a player, demonstrating exceptional burst in his touches while displaying the pass blocking aptitude that coaches look for in every down running backs. With the New Orleans Saints experiencing little offensive turnover, expect Kamara to dominate once again as an unstoppable force in fantasy football. Kamara carries clear first round value in 2018 and will make his owners happy even if he can't live up to the lofty standard set by his rookie campaign. In short, he is good!

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