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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Denver Broncos to identify potential values and busts.
The 2019 season was yet another turbulent year for a Denver Broncos team struggling to find its offensive identity and QB of the future. Longtime Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco joined the team and Denver struggled mightily in its first four games with him at the helm, going 0-4, and ending up 2-6 at the midpoint of the season.
Eventually, rookie QB Drew Lock came in at the end of the campaign and led the team to a 4-1 record during his five games played. This set up Broncos fans and brass with hope for the future because they may have finally found a capable signal caller to lead this team for the next few years. This has been a problem for the Broncos ever since Peyton Manning retired following Super Bowl 50 in early 2016.
The Broncos ended up being one of the biggest post-draft winners as they signed former Chargers RB Melvin Gordon in free agency and drafted a couple of great receivers in Alabama product Jerry Jeudy and Penn State product K.J. Hamler. Denver now has a loaded offense that is getting a bit of hype, but can they take the next step and compete for the division crown again? With the defending champ Chiefs in the mix, things will be hard. We do know that this Broncos offense is not like the past several years, as they have quite a few fantasy-relevant players. Let’s break this down.
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Quarterback
QB Drew Lock is the starter for the Broncos in 2020, but the Missouri product only started in five games at the end of the 2019 season in which he went 4-1. This featured wins over the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, and the now Las Vegas Raiders. That experience proved valuable, as the 23-year-old racked up 1,020 pass yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, 6.5 pass yards per attempt, 204 pass yards per game, an 89.7 quarterback rating, and 72 rush yards. He also had 27 bad throws and a 17.8 percent poor throws per pass attempt rate.
The Missouri native finished 37th among fantasy QBs last season, naturally, because he only appeared in five games. Therefore, he ranked in the bottom of statistical categories among NFL QBs due to the small number of games he played.
There is hype with Lock’s 4-1 record last season, but it’s a small sample size and there is tape on the rookie now as well for opponents to study. As much as this Denver offense is talented, Lock is still a young gunslinger, so he could be prone to mistakes, as evidence of his 7:3 touchdown to interception ratio. It’s best to consider this sophomore QB a backup in 12+ team redraft leagues for now until he proves he is more potent in fantasy.
Running Back
The Broncos added Melvin Gordon III to an unit that already features a 1,000-yard rusher in Phillip Lindsay and capable complementary back in Royce Freeman, making this unit a mess in terms of fantasy values. It is likely that Gordon and Lindsay will split carries as the workhorse back while Freeman stays in a backup role to both. The 27-year-old Gordon comes to the division rival Broncos on the heels of a 2019 season that featured him recording some career-lows during his five-year career with the Chargers.
Last year with LAC, the Wisconsin product stockpiled 162 rushes (career-low), 612 rush yards (career-low), eight rush touchdowns, 3.8 yards per rush attempt, and 51 rush yards per game. He also tallied 42 receptions, 296 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in his 12 games. Gordon also only managed 1.9 rush yards after contact per rush and eight broken tackles. The talented back finished 25th among fantasy RBs in 2019.
He also ranked 28th in rush attempts, 32nd in rush yards, 13th in rush touchdowns, and 27th in rush yards per game among NFL rushers. Gordon didn’t finish as high as many fantasy owners had grown accustomed to during his tenure with the Chargers. Unfortunately, the presence of another workhorse back on the team in Lindsay doesn’t help the Wisconsin native’s fantasy value. Consider Gordon an RB2 in 10 team redraft leagues heading into the 2020 season. His role and fantasy value can change during the season depending on how the carries are split and who emerges as the hot hand.
Likewise, Gordon's presence puts a hit on the fantasy value of the 26-year-old Lindsay, who is coming off two 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his first two NFL campaigns. In 16 games last year, the Colorado native accumulated 224 rush attempts, 1,011 rush yards, seven rush touchdowns, 4.5 rush yards per attempt, 63.2 rush yards per game along with 35 receptions, and 196 receiving yards. He also averaged 1.8 yards after contact per rush and 29 broken tackles. The third-year back finished 19th among fantasy RBs last year, slightly higher than Gordon.
Among NFL rushers, the Colorado-Boulder product finished 16th in rush attempts, 15th in rush yards, 17th in rush touchdowns, 21st in rush yards per attempt, and 17th in rush yards per game. However, as it has come to be known, the likely splitting of carries between Gordon and Lindsay impacts them both negatively for fantasy. Therefore, Lindsay’s value should be considered an RB3 in redraft leagues of 10-12 teams though it could change like Gordon’s during the season.
Finally, Freeman rounds out this Broncos rushing unit. The 24-year-old’s role will shrink this season because of the two other backs ahead of him on the depth chart. The California native compiled 132 rushes, 496 rush yards, three rush touchdowns, 3.8 rush yards per attempt, 31 rush yards per game, 43 receptions, 256 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown in 16 games last year. Freeman finished 40th among fantasy backs in 2019. Now the RB3 on this team, the back’s value should only be that of a flex in deep redraft leagues.
Wide Receiver
The Broncos now field Courtland Sutton along with rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler as their top-three receivers. Sutton is the unquestioned WR1 and is coming off a stellar 2019 campaign in which he led Denver pass-catchers in receptions, targets, yards, yards per catch, touchdowns, and yards per game. In 16 games last season, the SMU product recorded 72 receptions, 124/504 targets (24.6%), 1,112 yards, 15.4 yards per catch, and six touchdowns in his second NFL year. The 24-year-old also led league receivers with an incredible 42.93 percent share of team air yards.
Sutton ended up ranking 17th among fantasy receivers. He also finished 18th in targets, 31st in receptions, 19th in yards, and 24th in yards per game among NFL pass-catchers. Because of his rich role on the team and the fact that his biggest competition for targets will be rookies, this bodes well for Sutton’s fantasy value. He can be considered a solid WR2 in redraft leagues with 10+ teams.
The Broncos added firepower to their offense by drafting the former Alabama star, Jeudy, in the first round of the 2020 draft. Per Bleacher Report, the 21-year-old brings a dynamic presence to the field. He is speedy, electric, a fantastic route-runner, can match up with defenders well, and stretch the field to be a big-play guy. He finished with a 4.45 40-yard dash, which ranked middle-of-the-pack among wideouts at the combine. He was compared to Odell Beckham Jr.
The Florida native played three seasons for the Crimson Tide and his 2018 sophomore year was his best. During that campaign, Jeudy recorded 68 receptions, 1,315 yards, 19.3 yards per catch, and 14 touchdowns in 15 games. Overall, the talented receiver notched 159 receptions, 2,742 yards, 17.2 yards per catch, and 26 touchdowns in his collegiate career. Jeudy can no doubt be impactful for the Broncos and fantasy owners, but that will likely take some time since he is a rookie. As the WR2 on this team, he can be considered a flex piece in 12 to 14 team redraft leagues.
Adding to the mix is the speedster Hamler out of Penn State. Per Bleacher Report, the 21-year-old is undersized (5’9”, 178 lbs), but makes up for it with his incredible speed. He can stretch the field and make chunk plays while also creating separation. He has been compared to Texans WR Will Fuller V. The Michigan native didn’t get the opportunity to run the 40-yard dash at the combine, but Broncos GM John Elway did a little experiment of his own to verify how speedy Hamler really is.
The youngster played two seasons for the Nittany Lions, racking up 42 receptions, 754 yards, 18 yards per catch, and five touchdowns as a freshman in 2018 while garnering 56 receptions, 904 yards, 16.1 yards per catch, and eight touchdowns as a sophomore in 2019. He played 13 games each in both seasons. Hamler also compiled 87 rush yards and one rush touchdown on 17 rush attempts total during college. Like Jeudy, there is fantasy potential for Hamler, but he’s still also a rookie. Plus, he’s further down the depth chart as well. Consider this WR as depth on your fantasy team and only take a chance on him if you are in a deep redraft league.
Tight End
Noah Fant now enters his second NFL season and brings huge potential for production considering his solid rookie year and decent role on a rising Broncos offense. The Iowa product appeared in all 16 games for Denver last season and was second in targets, yards, yards per catch, and touchdowns, along with finishing third in receptions and yards per game. The 22-year-old compiled 40 receptions, 66/504 targets (13.1%), 562 yards, 14.1 yards per catch, three touchdowns, and 35.1 yards per game. Notably, he also had 8.5 yards after the catch per reception, which was tied for second among NFL pass-catchers last year.
The 2019 first-round pick finished 16th among fantasy tight ends last year. Among NFL tight ends, he ranked 18th in receptions, 13th in yards, 14th in yards per reception, and 19th in reception touchdowns.
Fant is the unquestioned TE1 on this team and has room to improve as Lock and this offense becomes more acclimated together and to the Broncos’ offensive scheme. Despite middling finishes last season, Fant performed well for a rookie, so he has the chance to take a leap this season. Heading into drafts in redraft formats, consider him a TE1 in leagues with 12-14 teams. No other tight end on this team should be considered fantasy-relevant heading into 2020.
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