College Football Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 3 2024) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for ESPN Pick'em Contests

September 11, 2024

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 3 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?

No one in the RotoBaller group hit 50 points this week, but bullgator and ertlt both had 47 to lead the group. That's still a strong total. dlobo4 locked down third place this week with 45 points. bullgator now leads the group with 90 points. dlobo4 and keepingthelittlehumansalive are tied for second with 86 points. It's All About Da U, dlobo4, and Weinhund's Winners are all one point back.

50Centi, mr_richard, and EAGLESYANKEES77 are just one point behind that. big papi10 rounds out the top 10 with 82 points. Only 15 points separates first place from the 25th, so there is still a lot of time left to try and claim the RotoBaller prize!

Week 2 looked tough and I came out with a solid week. My entry is on the first page of the standings, so it has to be considered somewhat of a success. There are some interesting games this week with some schools already engaging in conference games. At first glance, it looks like another tough week. Let's get to it!

College Football Pick'em Overview

This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you want to play the spread version as well, you can join that group here.

Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.

(1) Pittsburgh over West Virginia

It's nice to see the Backyard Brawl again. It's also nice to have a former rival week in September! This is one of those. Pitt showed a lot of heart in coming back from a big deficit against Cincinnati in Cincinnati last week. I have a hard time believing it'll lose to its archrival at home.

(2) Memphis over Florida State

I get it. Florida State doesn't lose at home. It is going to get its mojo back. Blah, blah, blah. It's all just noise. The Seminoles have allowed 453 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground in two games. Despite Seth Henigan's arm, Memphis is still a run-first team. Mario Anderson is averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

The only reason I have this lower on my picks is because Mike Norvell knows Memphis's playbook. Hell, he wrote the Memphis playbook. Some things have changed since he left for Tallahassee, but the foundation is still the same. It will be delicious irony for the Tigers if Norvell is fired after losing to his former team. That's kind of why I think Florida State might pull this off.

(3) Colorado over Colorado State

Deion Sanders and Jay Norvell share their postgame handshake ?

Colorado defeats Colorado St. 43-35 pic.twitter.com/xUKhbL8CEe

— UFM TV™️ (@UFMTV_) September 17, 2023

Colorado's issues from last year are still there. This is going to be a close game once again and I'm a little surprised that Colorado State is only polling at 19%. Since the game is in Fort Collins, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the Rams won this outright. I may end up moving this down further.

The Vegas spreads don't tell everything. Colorado being a touchdown favorite is more a reflection of the money coming in on the Buffaloes. This feels like it will be every bit as close as last year's nail-biter.

(4) South Carolina over LSU

LSU's struggle with Nicholls State for much of that game underscores the entire problem in Red Stick. The defense is good, but it is not elite. The lack of a running game is hurting the offense's overall efficiency. John Emery Jr. looked good against USC before he was lost for the season (again).

It's hard to overstate how good John Emery was coming in to fuel LSU's offense in the second half. Sucks he won't get to see out his 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/BRQUobpVNP

— Matthew Brune (@MatthewBrune_) September 4, 2024

Unfortunately, Josh Williams is not that guy. Is Caleb Jackson? Is Caden Durham? The Tigers needed to find out against Nicholls State and they couldn't because they didn't pull away until late in the game. This is going to be a tough one against the South Carolina defense. LSU's issues are the same as Kentucky's and look how that went.

(5) Appalachian State over East Carolina

App State is a solid favorite (-135) and it should be. ECU is going places with South Carolina transfer Jake Garcia at quarterback, but the public going heavy on ECU is just an overreaction to Appalachian State getting exposed by Clemson. Cade Klubnik had the game of his life. Garcia is not Klubnik. The Mountaineers are better at nearly every position and they should show it here.

(6) Central Florida over TCU

I may end up moving this higher. UCF is the Vegas favorite. Yes, TCU has a better defense. It also should have lost to a Stanford team that won two games last year. UCF's roster has changed some, but K.J. Jefferson is perfect for this offense. I like Josh Hoover and the game is in Fort Worth, but I feel that the UCF offense is going to be too much for the TCU defense.

(7) Florida over Texas A&M

If the Gators go back to Graham Mertz after DJ Lagway's performance last week, they deserve everything that happens from here on out. The freshman earned a chance to take the job outright and start this game. If he struggles, fine, go back to Mertz. If they don't even give him the chance, that sends a terrible message.

DJ Lagway threw for 465 yards and 3 TDs in his first start at Florida as a true freshman. He is big, strong, mobile and fearless. The only thing more explosive than the Gators offense on the field was his rocket launching arm. He is Florida’s best Quarterback. He should be QB1. pic.twitter.com/9ESR8ZWGXu

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) September 8, 2024

The Gators claim that both quarterbacks will play. I don't like having the game this high on my list, but I'm a firm believer that Miami is better than ES(EC)PN thinks because it doesn't play in the SEC. Miami made Florida look bad because it is that much better. Both things can be true. Florida can be a solid team and lose to a much better team at home.

I've gone back and forth on this one a bit. The A&M loss looks bad after the Irish lost at home to Northern Illinois. Florida getting smoked by Miami isn't a surprise for anyone who has paid attention to Miami's reload in the portal. I tend to think Florida is the better team in this one.

(8) Maryland over Virginia

Come on now ... what are we doing here? Hank Bachmeier went nuts on the Virginia secondary even though the Hoos pulled it out. Maryland choked away the game against Michigan State, but the defense still looked solid for most of the game. Tai Felton is just as good as Malachi Fields.

I give Virginia the edge at QB with Anthony Colandrea (even though I like Billy Edwards Jr.). The difference is at running back. Roman Hemby is better than Kobe Pace, and hey ... Maryland didn't give up 403 passing yards last week. The ball-hawking Maryland secondary could make the difference. It has picked off five passes already!

(9) Washington over Washington State

It's Apple Cup week pic.twitter.com/Nq7DXeMOBA

— Dave “Softy” Mahler (@Softykjr) September 9, 2024

I love a good Apple Cup, but this will not be a good Apple Cup. Washington State is a shadow of last year's team. So is Washington, but Washington has a good coach and far better players.

I would love to see the Cougars win this to show how horrible the Big Ten (18) is for fracturing the two Pacific Northwest rivalries and leaving the Cougars and Beavers without a home. Your conference is already an oxymoron. What matters if you have 18 or 20 teams?

Statistical quirk as a result of the week 3 Apple Cup:

Saturday will mark the first time since 1935 that both UW and WSU enter the Apple Cup with an undefeated record.

(Huskies won that game 21-0).

— Ethan Kilbreath (@EthanArles) September 10, 2024

(10) Indiana over UCLA

Ethan Garbers is not the answer for UCLA, but more concerning for the Bruins and their fans should be that he also leads the team in rushing. Curt Cignetti attacked the portal when he got to Bloomington and put together a really good team. Deshaun Foster should have done the same.

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