2026 BMW Championship Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers To Watch

August 19, 2026

Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 players to watch at the 2026 BMW Championship from Bellerive CC. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.

Scottie Scheffler kicked off the FedEx Cup Playoffs with an eight-shot demolition in Memphis, and the rest of the field now finds itself chasing a player threatening to turn the season's final stretch into a coronation -- one made all the more daunting by the fact that Scheffler is also the defending BMW Championship winner, having taken last year's title at Caves Valley.

This week's venue, however, is new territory for the current generation of stars. Bellerive hasn't hosted a tournament since the 2018 PGA Championship, famously the site of Brooks Koepka's third Major title -- and of Tiger Woods's closing 64 that gave the entire golf world a sneak peek of what was to come eight months later.

In our return to St. Louis, expect a layout that rewards power off the tee and precision iron play above all else. Will Scottie capture the second leg of the PGA Tour's closing triple crown? Or will one of the many talented contenders etch their own name into the season's tapestry? With the stakes set and the field loaded, here are my top 10 players to watch at the 2026 BMW Championship!

No. 10 - Patrick Cantlay

Although 2026 hasn't exactly been a banner year for the former FedEx Cup Champion -- three top-10s in 18 starts, no result better than 7th -- the underlying numbers suggest a player rounding into form at exactly the time of year that's historically produced his best moments.

Cantlay won back-to-back BMW Championships in 2021-22, and has recorded a top-10 in one-third of his Playoff starts since 2017. His current ball-striking suggests another strong postseason may be brewing: even with an even-par weekend dropping him to a tie for 12th in Memphis last week, he still logged the fourth-best approach week in the field, gaining 5.86 strokes with his irons over four days. That came right on the heels of a +6.74 approach mark at the Rocket Classic in his final regular-season start. Over his last 36 rounds, only Scottie Scheffler, Tom Kim and Matt Fitzpatrick rate out as better iron players, while Cantlay sits 15th in Total Driving for the season.

The one thing standing between Cantlay and a return to peak form is the putter -- and bentgrass has historically been where his best putting has surfaced. Six of his seven career wins have come on bentgrass, and two of his eight best putting performances of his career have come at this very event: a staggering 14.58 strokes gained on the greens during his 2021 win at Caves Valley, and another 5.98 in a runner-up finish at Merion in 2019.

He's gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts, so the signs are there. If Patty Ice can find the spike week he needs on the greens, the rest of his game is more than capable of carrying him to another Playoff title.

No. 9 - Xander Schauffele

Xander Schauffele pulls the string to set up birdie from the bunker 🧵 pic.twitter.com/syckqq29xQ

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) July 31, 2026

Like his longtime friend and Ryder Cup partner, Xander Schauffele has spent more time lingering around the first page of leaderboards than truly contending in 2026. But with finishes of 2nd and 7th across his last two starts, we may be seeing the start of a final charge toward his vintage 2024 form.

Xander has built these results using the same formula he's leaned on throughout his 11-year career: an all-around attack built on the ability to create separation in multiple facets at once. At the Rocket Classic, he finished just two shots back of eventual champion Michael Thorbjornsen with the best ball-striking performance in the field (+10.16 strokes gained). And last week in Memphis, his T7 was driven largely by the best putting week we've seen from Schauffele since June's U.S. Open (+3.06).

With signs of life from the flat stick for the first time in two months, perhaps this is finally the week things come together for the two-time Major champion. He's remained one of the Tour's most reliable ball-strikers all season -- sitting right between Michael Thorbjornsen and Gary Woodland in Total Driving -- while quietly gaining 8.1 strokes on approach across his last three starts, his best stretch since early spring.

Bentgrass, meanwhile, has been Xander's preferred putting surface over the last three seasons, where he's gained an average of nearly four-tenths of a stroke across 58 rounds. And fittingly, his best putting performance of the season came at one of the schedule's closest agronomic comps to Bellerive: Aronimink (+7.50).

If the putter keeps cooperating, the formula that carried him to two Major Championships in 2024 could finally resurface.

No. 8 - Hideki Matsuyama

As some surge and others fall off through the stretch run of the 2026 season, Hideki Matsuyama has remained a constant presence on the first page of the leaderboard.

Hideki's T7 in Memphis makes four straight finishes of seventh or better, and he hasn't finished outside the top 15 since the U.S. Open two months ago.

Most encouraging of all is the manner in which Matsuyama arrived at his most recent result. Over four days at Southwind, Hideki actually gained more from tee through green than Scottie Scheffler -- logging his best ball-striking performance of the season (+9.48) and his best driving week since the 2024 Travelers Championship (+4.03).

That kind of week is the perfect payoff to what's been an under-the-radar development among the game's elite. And this week, Hideki will need the driver to continue on that trajectory around a much bigger ballpark.

Bentgrass has quietly been kind to him, too -- Matsuyama's sat above Tour average on the surface across his last 50 rounds dating back to 2024. If that trend holds at Bellerive, the on-course consistency he's shown all summer may finally translate into the finish it deserves.

No. 7 - Matt Fitzpatrick

The progression of Matt Fitzpatrick's ball-striking has been one of the storylines of the 2026 season, but over the last two weeks, evidence has begun to mount that the air is ever so slightly being let out of his balloon.

I've been one of the biggest believers in that progression -- the former U.S. Open champion has quietly put together one of the most complete campaigns of his career, spending much of 2026 among the top three players on Tour from tee-to-green. But over his last two starts -- the Open Championship and last week's FedEx St. Jude -- that elite ball-striking has slipped to a middling weapon at best, leaving me, for the first time in three or four months, compelled to rank him this low.

A +3.61 putting week in Memphis was enough to salvage a T12, but leaning on the putter to cover for shaky iron play isn't a formula I love heading into Bellerive. Fitzpatrick has built up plenty of goodwill -- he's legitimately in the Player of the Year conversation -- but I'll need to see a real rebound in the ball-striking before I have much confidence in his ceiling this week.

It's worth stressing this is only a two-start sample, so there's no need to sound the emergency sirens. But with so many world-class options surrounding him at the season's final hurdle, and on a Bellerive setup that's historically rewarded power over precision, this isn't the week Fitzpatrick can afford to show up without his A-game.

No. 6 - Wyndham Clark

WYNDHAM CLARK! HUGE!

An unlikely birdie after his tee shot found the fescue. pic.twitter.com/RLO84XIltX

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 21, 2026

Speaking of players vying for the Player of the Year crown, Wyndham Clark will suddenly be feeling some added pressure in that race after Scheffler's runaway win in Memphis. But lost in the shadow of Scheffler's dominant performance in the Playoffs' opening round was Wyndham's best tee-to-green week since winning the U.S. Open two months ago.

Clark gained strokes across all four categories in a T5 finish last week, and importantly, his +4.11 approach rating was the best iron performance he's had since a 3rd-place finish at the Memorial.

This week, Bellerive should be a far friendlier layout to Wyndham's power game. And if the irons carry over from last week, he's suddenly right in the conversation as one of Scheffler's biggest competitors.

As he showed through most of June and July, nobody in the game can match his ability to spike on and around the greens. Over his last 36 rounds, Clark's short game rates out at 1.6x better than the field's next-best mark, and his three best putting performances of the season have all happened to come on the bentgrass greens of the Northeast and Midwest -- Craig Ranch, River Highlands, and Shinnecock.

Only a few starts removed from his summer run as the hottest player on the planet, the pieces are again beginning to look awfully familiar. Bellerive could well be the perfect canvas for another Wyndham Clark masterclass.

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No. 5 - Rory McIlroy

I'm sure many will be surprised to see McIlroy remain at last week's ranking despite a horrendous four days in Memphis. But I just don't see a world in which Rory McIlroy isn't, at worst, the fifth-most-likely player in this field to lift the trophy Sunday evening.

Quite simply, nothing went right at Southwind -- McIlroy closed his Thursday with two bogeys and a double on his final three holes and never recovered. But the wide-open layout at Bellerive should offer a much friendlier setup for McIlroy's game, particularly off the tee, and the BMW has historically been kind to him regardless of course: in his last eight starts at this event, his worst finish is a tie for 19th, with three top-5s in that span.

People will clamor about the motivation factor, and it's true -- under this new Playoff format, McIlroy can afford another dud finish and still secure safe passage to East Lake. But pride is a factor too. And given the heights Rory's reached in this game, I'd imagine a 25-shot gap between him and the man he's chasing in the World Rankings won't sit well. All it may take is a solid start to the week for the competitive fire to return. And if it does, I have a hard time naming four players in this field I'd rather have chasing a trophy come Sunday.

No. 4 - Si Woo Kim

Elite touch from Si Woo Kim to set up birdie and go 9-under 🎯

📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/vF8PHhJZH5

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) July 19, 2026

Considering the eight-shot winning margin, a slight caveat may be in order for Si Woo's runner-up in Memphis. But under the hood, there may be no player firing as well as the 31-year-old Korean. Si Woo's 10.3 Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking lapped Scottie Scheffler by a shot and a half over four days in Memphis, and marks the sixth time since the end of May that Si Woo has gained at least five shots from tee through green.

These immense ball-striking gifts make Si Woo as reliable a weekly option as we have in the game. But in spite of logging his best putting season in six years, he still searches for a marquee victory -- something he hasn't tasted since the 2023 Sony Open. And the BMW presents an additional problem: as this event's typical preference for power-friendly venues could put the shorter-hitting Kim behind the eight ball against the week's expected top competitors.

The concerns show up in the results log as well -- Si Woo has finished better than 19th just once in nine career starts at this tournament, the one exception coming at Castle Pines, a course that somewhat mitigated length by playing 6,000 feet above sea level.

None of that changes the fact that Si Woo is playing some of the best golf in the world right now, and a profile as ironclad as his is more than capable of showing up even when conditions aren't fully in his favor.

If there's a player in this field whose skill set seems tailor-made for Bellerive, it's Ludvig Åberg. Arguably the best overall driver of the ball on the planet, Åberg ranks seventh in this field in carry distance and 13th in Good Drive Percentage -- a combination of power and precision that could be particularly devastating around a golf course that saw Brooks Koepka, Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, and a number of other elite drivers flourish the last time we saw this place in competition.

That combination was on full display last week, as Ludvig lapped the field off the tee, gaining 4.7 strokes on a course that didn't fully let him unleash his power profile. Bellerive should present no such restrictions.

And while Åberg isn't quite back to the peak approach form that carried him to six top-8 finishes in seven starts between March and May, the floor has remained remarkably high -- he's gained strokes with his irons in 11 consecutive appearances and ranks fourth in birdie chances created from 200 yards and beyond, a particularly valuable skill with two long par-3s and six holes measuring more than 490 yards.

Bentgrass has also long been Ludvig's preferred putting surface -- a point I've made plenty of times already on this list, but the numbers back it up again here, as he ranks eighth in this field on a per-round basis on the surface.

Any concerns about a midseason lull have been fully extinguished by back-to-back top-10s at the Open and FedEx St. Jude. Now, Åberg arrives at the BMW chasing the breakthrough that's eluded him despite what's statistically been the best all-around season of his career. His 2nd- and 7th-place finishes in his two previous BMW starts suggest he's more than capable of handling whatever this setup throws at him. If the driver keeps humming, don't be surprised if this is the week the ceiling finally arrives.

Sundays continue to haunt Sam Burns in 2026, but it's difficult to leave another week without being impressed by the player he's become over the last two months.

Since the start of June, Burns has logged two top-three finishes at Majors, fourth- and third-place finishes in two other marquee fields (the Memorial and the FedEx St. Jude), and hasn't finished outside the top 20 in six starts.

The irons, in particular, are as hot as they've ever been in Burns's career -- and currently hotter than anyone else's on the planet. He's gained 1.25 strokes per round on approach over his last 24 rounds, a full third of a shot per day clear of Scottie Scheffler in second place.

And although Burns is renowned for his prowess on Bermuda, his splits on bentgrass are even more impressive. Over the last two seasons, he's gained nearly four strokes per week across nine starts on bent, most recently posting a 7.95-strokes-gained week at Caves Valley 12 months ago -- the second-best mark in the field that week.

Unlike Si Woo, Bellerive's historical lean toward power players should play right into Burns's hands. He's playing like the second-best player on the planet right now, and this setup should give him the perfect stage to extend one of the best runs of his career.

Welp, this is anticlimactic. But after tying his record margin with an eight-shot triumph in Memphis, all eyes will be on Scottie Scheffler in his attempt to sweep through the FedEx Cup playoffs -- and potentially snatch Player of the Year out from the noses of the year's brightest stars.

As you could expect given the final leaderboard, not a lot went wrong for Scottie over four days at Southwind, as the World No. 1 was his typical reliable self from tee through green: hitting a field-best 76.4% of his greens around one of the more demanding layouts on the schedule. But ultimately, the difference came with the club that has historically held Scheffler back from accomplishing even more in his hall of fame career.

Much has been written about Scottie's progression from one of the Tour's worst putters to one you can count on most weeks, but over four days at TPC Southwind, Scheffler proved his trusty Spider can run as hot as anyone in the sport. His +8.92 strokes gained rating was not only the best in the field that week (by over three shots no less), but also the best four-day run in Scheffler's seven years on Tour.

Simply put, if that trend even remotely carries over to St. Louis, the odds board should operate more like a points spread than a futures market, as Scottie has proven many times he's capable of parlaying a victory into another in quick succession. The player who rarely misfires just found another gear -- and the rest of the field should be terrified if he remembers where it is.

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