RADIO
Although quarterbacks may seem less important to fantasy football success than running backs and wide receivers, it’s very easy to set yourself up for failure by overpaying for them on draft day. Of all the players in your starting lineup, it can be argued that it is most imperative to draft quarterbacks close to their true value than any other position, where reaches can punish you greatly if they miss.
While it's becoming more common than ever to see owners wait until the middle or later rounds to draft a QB, not all options are equally as valuable.
Based on 10-team standard scoring average draft positions (ADPs) and positional rankings from fantasyfootballcalculator.com, I’ll be taking a look at three over-valued quarterbacks and discussing why you should not be taking them at the price they currently demand.
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Derek Carr (QB, OAK) – 7.04, QB-5
I had previously written an article about which quarterbacks I slated to be either boom or bust players in fantasy football for 2017, with Derek Carr being one of them. Click here to view that article.
One of the best things to happen for the NFL in recent memory is the return to relevance of the Oakland Raiders, with expectations never having been higher for the upcoming season. They have a talented young quarterback, a top-10 offensive line, and an underrated defense headlined by young superstar Khalil Mack. Since I wrote my boom/bust article, Carr’s draft stock has risen slightly earlier into the seventh round and he now ranks as the fifth-best fantasy quarterback. However, I fear that many fantasy drafters are in the grips of recency bias when they consider Carr to be worthy of that price.
Don’t get me wrong, Carr is undoubtedly one of the better starting quarterbacks in the league and has taken noticeable steps to improve his game every single year he’s been in the league. He has thrown for 81 combined touchdown passes in his first three NFL seasons and has the 8th lowest interception percentage (interceptions per pass attempt) among current starting quarterbacks. Furthermore, he has become more prosperous on a per game basis each year, improving on his 204.4 yards per game in his rookie season to 249.2 in 2015 and 262.5 in 2016.
Given those stats, it would seem obvious that Carr is worthy of a seventh round pick. Ultimately, what it boils down to when I tell you not to draft him at his current value is twofold. First, he will face six divisional matchups in which he typically performs horrendous in, as in week-losing horrendous. Carr averaged 11 fantasy points per game against AFC West competition compared to 21.3 fantasy points per game against other teams in 2016. With such a significant drop-off in production across six games, it’s incredibly difficult to view him as a top-shelf quarterback option that should be on the field for most games.
Further affecting Carr’s fantasy relevance, the Oakland Raiders were an incredibly balanced offense last year and should continue to trend more towards said balance in 2017. The team was in the top-12 for both pass attempts and rush attempts last season, averaging 37.2 passes (ranked 9th) and 27.1 rushes (ranked 11th) per game. While many will assume that Carr can maintain or even surpass his previous workload, I fear that the addition of Marshawn Lynch in the offseason is indicative of the team looking to take some volume out of his hands and instead hand it over to the stable of backs on the roster. Such a change will drastically impact Carr’s ceiling and floor, making it difficult to buy-in at a seventh round draft price. At the end of the day, it’s better to forgo drafting Carr at his current ADP and instead continue to bolster your skill positions with useful depth players.
Alternative Options: Kirk Cousins (9.05, QB-10), Philip Rivers (11.03, QB-13)
Andrew Luck (QB, IND): 9.02, QB-8
It’s time to be realistic about a player who could easily be ranked as one of the top tier fantasy quarterbacks… if he is fully healthy. Andrew Luck has thrown for 4,000 yards in three of his five NFL seasons, featuring a top-2 fantasy finish in 2014 where he threw for 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns. As a Colts’ fan, I’ve loved watching the grit and determination that he plays with on Sundays and hope he gets a chance to hit the field at full health in the upcoming season.
For right now, his future is incredibly difficult to project. The Colts now have just 6 practices before the regular season opener and Luck hasn't practiced with the team since December. I follow the Indianapolis Colts for the news desk on Rotoballer.com and it seems like every update on Luck’s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery is about how “there is no timeline” for his return. It seems imminent that he will not be ready to go by Week 1, with the entirety of the Colts’ organization remaining mum about how exactly Luck’s recovery is going. There have been vague hints about a possible Week 3 return, but I certainly don’t trust him to remain upright for too long behind an offensive line ranked 22nd in the league by Pro Football Focus that also just lost its stalwart center for 6-8 weeks due to injury.
Your job within the first ten rounds of your draft is to make sure that you put together as balanced a roster as possible with the picks you have. With Luck carrying a ninth round ADP, it puts him in a sort of fantasy limbo that results in two scenarios for drafting him. The first involves selecting Luck to be your QB1 and taking another quarterback later to sub in for him while he recovers, praying every single day that the second quarterback is capable of filling in for an unknown amount of missed time. The second scenario involves taking him in the ninth round after having already drafted a quarterback in the previous rounds. Both put you in awful positions, making clear that there are simply too many unknowns in Luck’s situation to justify setting yourself back by drafting him within the first ten rounds outside of two-QB leagues.
Alternative Options: Jameis Winston (8.05, QB-7), Marcus Mariota (9.05, QB-9)
Cam Newton (QB, CAR) – 9.09, QB-11
The once league MVP quarterback took a huge fall-from-grace in 2016, producing career lows in both completion percentage (52.9) and yards per attempt (6.9). With having thrown for 3,509 yards and 19 touchdowns to 14 interceptions along with 359 rush yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, Cam Newton fell to a QB-17 finish in fantasy. It was an immense disappointment for many fantasy owners who, on average, drafted him in the middle of the third round.
At present, Newton is going as the eleventh best quarterback on the board and commands a ninth round pick. I would not be touching him anywhere near that spot due to multiple issues outside of his actual quarterback play. First, Newton had offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder and has shown to not be 100% all through team activities. It does look like he is on track to make his preseason debut in the team’s third preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but I will reserve judgment on how far along he is in the healing process until he gets on the field.
In addition, the offseason moves made by the Carolina Panthers can only serve to hurt Newton’s value. The coveted rushing floor that fantasy pundits often mention is likely to turn more into the ‘Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey Show’ insofar as the team wants to prevent unnecessary hits to their franchise quarterback. Newton was never well renowned for his ability to generate 300-plus yard games, something he only did once in 2016. Factor into the equation that Ted Ginn’s departure has left the Panthers with an even worse receiving core and it spells a recipe for disappointment.
Many people seem to be thinking that last season was an aberration in a top NFL quarterback’s career, but I can’t imagine Newton returning on a ninth round draft cost as a QB1 in 2017.
Alternative Options: Dak Prescott (11.08, QB-14), Matthew Stafford (11.09, QB-15)
