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We witnessed one of the most exciting and compelling waves of NFL free agency and player movement ever in recent weeks. Now that most of the major transactions have been completed, it is a good time to review the top player changes for fantasy football purposes.
I have ranked the most important 25 moves of the offseason so far, knowing that the NFL Draft can slightly alter some of these outlooks. A few additional less notable transactions are still possible, too.
We do now know where the biggest key players have landed at this point, though. These rankings are mainly an early look at which moves should be most impactful in standard seasonal leagues, although I do add in dynasty league and Superflex analysis where it is pertinent.
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Saquon Barkley ticked off Giants fans and will stir the rivalry even more now. Barkley gets an obvious major boost in offensive environment. But he will also certainly cede a decent amount of TD opportunities to Jalen Hurts, meaning the 27-year-old will rank just outside the top five at RB in 2024.
Josh Jacobs is coming off a disappointing season in which he ranked 18th in PPR points per game at RB. But the Green Bay offense is on the upswing and Jacobs can be a stable and productive option for the Packers in a bounce-back season. He will be a viable high-end RB2 target.
Last season, Derrick Henry showed he can still play at a very high level in most weeks. Opposing defenses will not be able to key on him as much in the Baltimore backfield, but losing some TD chances to Lamar Jackson caps his outlook as a top-15 range RB in seasonal leagues.
The Texans finally have landed a reliable RB in Joe Mixon, their first since the days of Arian Foster. Mixon is no longer a real RB1 type, but he can still handle a healthy workload and should get his TD chances in an ascending offense. The longtime former Bengal will be a solid midrange RB2 pick in 2024 drafts.
It will be strange not to see Keenan Allen in a Chargers uniform anymore.
New #Bears WR Keenan Allen had the highest open rating in the NFL last year, according to ESPN analytics. pic.twitter.com/r0OnLhQFYE
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) March 22, 2024
Allen still played at a very high level when healthy last season, and he will be a very busy target for a first-year QB in 2024. I view him as a good WR2, more in the back half of that range.
Another RB who moves to the opposite side of a rivalry, Aaron Jones will be revered in Green Bay years down the line. Fantasy-wise, he showed that high-level play is still possible when injuries are not an issue. Jones has some juice and explosion left in him, and the 29-year-old is a top-20 RB for 2024.
We have yet to see D'Andre Swift fully realize his potential, but a very impressive campaign could be ahead as a regular pass-catcher and prime backfield partner for a top rookie QB. Swift may be drafted outside of the top 20 this season in some leagues, yet he will carry notable upside. This is also a good time to buy on him in dynasty leagues.
Former Cowboy Tony Pollard was a big disappointment in 2023 as a feature back, and sharing some work with Tyjae Spears in Tennessee might suit him better. Pollard may be more efficient in 2024, but potential split touches or being the lead back in an offense that is less established marks him as a back-end RB2.
Zack Moss earned a chance to show he can be a primary RB after functioning as a quality fill-in for Indianapolis last season. Moss joins a potent offense and the TD promise pinpoints him as an enticing RB3 pick. We will have to see how much Chase Brown cuts into his opportunities, though.
The final numbers for Calvin Ridley didn’t look bad last year, but the reality was that he ranked 25th in PPR points per game at WR. Perhaps he can regain status as a true No. 1 WR for Tennessee.
Most Impactful Fantasy Football Moves: 11-20
In the past, we have often not known what the real floor for a Kansas City WR might be heading into the season. That is the case with Marquise Brown, as Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice will be ahead of him as established targets for Patrick Mahomes. But the potential now exists for Brown to also come through with a high-ceiling campaign. He is a very alluring best ball target.
The fall from elite status for Austin Ekeler last year was dramatic. Ekeler will complement Brian Robinson Jr. next season, but he can still operate as a very busy receiver out of the backfield for Washington. Ekeler is now a PPR RB3 who should provide some spike weeks.
Mike Williams remains an authentic risk/reward pick, and one of the most curious of the upcoming season.
Mike Williams, if healthy, should play a huge role in the Jets offense. Line him up outside, downfield threat, and even if he's covered, he's not really covered because of his ability on 50-50 balls and back shoulder throws. Good option opposite Garrett Wilson
— Chris Simms (@CSimmsQB) March 20, 2024
A healthy Williams seems to be a rarity, yet the sizable, big-play WR will have a high ceiling if both he and Aaron Rodgers are on the field together for much of the year.
Former Bill and Texan Devin Singletary delivered with the best production of his career over an extensive period last year and was rewarded with the Giants’ starting job. But I am skeptical of Singletary being a true feature back over a complete season and he joins an offense that will still sputter often.
If Dave Canales can spark notable improvements from Bryce Young, Diontae Johnson will outperform expectations. He suffered through QB instability in Pittsburgh and still challenged defenses regularly.
Gus Edwards' appeal may drop more after the NFL Draft, and TD opportunities won’t present themselves as frequently as they did in Baltimore.
The Falcons got their missing piece, but Kirk Cousins is not more than a high-end fantasy QB2 heading into the 2024 season. He is coming off an Achilles injury and won’t have Justin Jefferson anymore, so the move to Atlanta is no significant fantasy upgrade.
A strong preseason from Justin Fields could quickly end the Russell Wilson era in Pittsburgh. If that happens, Fields will regain fantasy QB1 status inside the top 10. He is a very tempting Superflex draft pick and an apparent short-term risk trade target in dynasty leagues.
Leaving Denver to get into better surroundings in terms of a winning outlook in Cleveland could lead to Jerry Jeudy unlocking more of his potential. But we cannot count on reliable QB play from Deshaun Watson, although Jameis Winston will still sling it if he is needed to start at any point.
We could not trust Gabe Davis with Josh Allen, so it’s hard to have any faith in better and more consistent production with Trevor Lawrence.
Most Impactful Fantasy Football Moves: 21-25
Darnell Mooney might be a fourth option as a playmaker in Atlanta, yet he could also be a frequent downfield target for Cousins.
K.J. Osborn is a sleeper candidate because of a lack of quality competition with his new team.
Career-high in receptions (10) ✔️
Career-high in receiving yards (157) ✔️@KJ_Osborn was born for this. pic.twitter.com/fHC4r3Gug1— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2022
Osborn flashed at times in Minnesota and may emerge as a top pass-catcher for the Patriots.
A respectable amount of touches as a receiver and occasional ball carrier in an offense that is still devoid of many quality playmakers positions Antonio Gibson as a decent depth pick.
We have annually heard about how Mike Gesicki was on the verge of a breakout for about seven years. I was guilty of buying into the buzz because of his highly athletic traits. Not happening again, as the tight end is just not a reliable source of fantasy production in Cincinnati.
Russell Wilson: He can still throw a good deep ball and a respectable campaign is possible, whether it’s in Pittsburgh or on another team that needs Wilson to step in because of an injury. He will be draftable as a Superflex type. The possibility does exist that Wilson could outperform Fields in the preseason and play well enough for the Steelers, too.
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