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The King's Early FFPC ADP Observations

As we announced a couple weeks ago, RotoBaller is partnering with the FFPC to help bring their industry leading games to all of our loyal RotoBaller readers. We'll be discussing the FFPC's awesome selection of games, and strategy and advice for those games, here at RotoBaller, on Twitter, and on SiriusXM  throughout the Summer.

Today we'll be looking at early Average Draft Position trends from the FFPC. FFPC drafts started filling out way back in February, so we know there are a ton of serious players on the platform from whom we can glean ADP insights. It’s a very good idea to consult some of what the best players in the world are doing. Here are some interesting Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) trends we're noticing.

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Early FFPC ADP Observations

Top-Level RBs: Alvin Kamara is going just ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, followed by David Johnson with the third to fifth overall picks. I slightly prefer Elliott after his 77-catch season and he does not have any competition for workhorse carries, but the FFPC guys may be disregarding Latavius Murray as a factor more than I am. Johnson at fifth is an endorsement of Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray to invigorate the Cardinals offense, and high stakes players have to be aggressive if they strongly believe in something over what the masses are thinking.

James Conner is a second rounder: He is going 13th overall, as reports of Jaylen Samuels playing a bigger role in the Pittsburgh passing game seem to be affecting the ADP. I still believe Conner is going to be a heavy volume back, as he caught 55 balls in 13 games last year. I will take him in the first round, likely in the second half, as I think he has to carry a significant load to help compensate for the loss of Antonio Brown and ease some defensive pressure on JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Todd Gurley is a second rounder: The savvy FFPC community has elected to bump him down to a 17 overall ADP, while he is still a late first rounder on other sites. High stakes players can be aggressive when they believe in a player, but here’s proof that they heed warnings about possible negative factors. I am in line with their thinking here, as even a healthy Gurley should see a notably reduced overall workload. It should also be noted that Darrell Henderson is going 67th overall in the FFPC, as high stakes players are looking for him to possibly get a lot of reps as a rookie. He could share time with Gurley when both are available.

The FFPC likes Damien Williams: His FFPC ADP is 20, while he is going in the 30s on some other sites. There is widespread mainstream skepticism on Williams, who has never proven he can be a featured RB over an extended period in his career yet. But like the FFPC players, I will risk the earlier choice on Williams. He is versatile and sometimes explosive, and should be the continued TD finisher for a very good offense, even if it is a bit less potent when it inevitably loses Tyreek Hill.

Patrick Mahomes is a third rounder: His FFPC ADP is 29 overall. I think he comes back to the pack and regresses some when he loses Hill, and will not finish as QB1 in Fantasy Football again. I believe that will be Andrew Luck, who is going 47th overall.

Skepticism on Sony Michel: The New England RB has a FFPC ADP of 50, while he is going 10 to 12 picks earlier on some other sites. The well-researched high stakes crowd is being more cautious here because of Michel’s reputation as an injury risk.

Tempering enthusiasm on Tarik Cohen?: He finished RB11 in PPR leagues last year, but his FFPC overall ADP is 59. I agree with the high stakes players on this take, but I am sure my buddy Real Talk Raph on our SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio show will not, as we have argued a lot about Cohen’s outlook. With David Montgomery and Mike Davis coming in to take on a lot of carries, Cohen will likely touch the ball much less as a runner this year. Also, consistency was an issue for him last season despite the overall impressive scoring finish, and that element of Fantasy frustration may grow even larger this season.

Definitely Down on Corey Davis: The Titans WR has a FFPC ADP of 111, while he is going in the 70s on some other sites. The high stakes crowd is likely factoring in the additions of Adam Humphries and A.J. Brown and may have lost patience with Davis’ failure to reach his potential so far. Plus, there is a general disdain for Marcus Mariota in all Fantasy circles heading into 2019. Some still believe in the considerable talents of Davis, but obviously not in the FFPC arena.

They don’t want Donte: Several Fantasy analysts, including myself, believe Moncrief can come in and be a respectable Fantasy starter in Pittsburgh across from Smith-Schuster. FFPC types certainly do not agree. Moncrief has an ADP of 165, and there are some kickers going ahead of him. Meanwhile, James Washington has an ADP of 108. To me, this is a value opportunity, as Moncrief would not have been acquired if the Steelers truly believed Washington was ready to step forward.

Booing Burton: I have heard some Fantasy analysts and players express confidence that the Chicago offense will be improved this season in Year Two under Matt Nagy, and Burton should benefit. That would seem to bode well for Burton’s FFPC outlook, as TEs get 1,5 points for a catch in their leagues. But the FFPC types seem to refuse to forgive Burton for a disappointing 2018 season. His ADP is 172, as he is also in post kicker and defense territory in many cases. If you are of the Burton backing crowd, this is more evidence of a possible value opportunity. Or it could just be that the high stakes drafters are not seeing the Bears offense progressing behind Mitch Trubisky in 2018.

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