5 years agoBlake Snell had a masterful 2018 season winning the AL Cy Young award with a sparkling 1.89 ERA. Things did not go as well last season, he went 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA and dealt with toe and elbow injuries early in the season. Snell went on the injured list after elbow surgery in July but returned in September with no drop in velocity, so his elbow shouldn't be a concern moving forward. As for his numbers, the 27-year-old lefty faced a ton of bad luck seeing his BABIP (.241 to .343) and HR/FB rate (10.7% to 15.4%) rise significantly over 2018. Despite the bad luck, his skill-based ERA indicators were remarkably close to his Cy Young season. Snell's xFIP last season was 3.31, almost a full run lower than his ERA and close to the 3.16 mark he put up in 2018. His FIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.56) were also much lower than his actual ERA implying he's due for positive regression there. Expect Snell's ERA to return to the mid-3 range while continuing to post excellent strikeout numbers. He's one of just seven pitchers with a K% over 30 percent two straight years and posted an absurd 17.7 percent swinging-strike rate last season making 200 strikeouts a reasonable expectation. Snell is fully healthy and currently being drafted as a top-10 pitcher, but outside the top-30 overall (37), which is a steal for a starter with Snell's upside.--Mike Schwarzenbach - RotoBaller