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Three Overvalued Quarterbacks - Potential ADP Busts

Quarterback is one of the most predictable and deepest positions in fantasy, so it is not a spot where you want to take risks.

Sure, you could draft Aaron Rodgers early, or you could wait and get Philip Rivers really late. There are many ways to play the quarterback position, and the only thing that can really hurt you is drafting a complete bust.

Let's try to help you avoid that by looking at three quarterbacks who have bust potential in 2018.

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Quarterback Busts

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

When Watson took over starter duties in the second half of Week 1 last season, no one was prepared for what was coming. Watson took the league by storm, throwing for 1,699 yards and 19 touchdowns in just six and a half games. He also added 269 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. 21 touchdowns in 26 quarters. Amazing. But here’s the thing, that is absolutely not sustainable. If it was, he wouldn’t just be the greatest quarterback in history, he’d be the greatest player in any professional sport by miles. His touchdown rate of 9.3% was by far the highest of any quarterback that started a game last year, a full 1.8% higher than second place Carson Wentz. Russell Wilson, who led the NFL in passing touchdowns, threw one on just 6.1% of his passes. Tom Brady was at 5.5%, Aaron Rodgers at 6.7%. Watson is sure to see major regression in touchdowns.

But the real issue with Watson is we don't really know how good he is yet. Unlike the quarterbacks that Watson is being drafted ahead of (which is all of them except Aaron Rodgers) we have a very small sample of him playing at a high level. Drafting Watson is saying you expect him to be as good as, or close to as good as he was a year ago. Considering you can skip him and get elite and proven quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, Cam Newton or Drew Brees, among others, I just don’t see the appeal. Will Watson be a good NFL quarterback? Probably. Will he be good enough to finish as the QB2? Probably not. Drafters who take him as such will likely be disappointed by year's end.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

This one is tough for me because I really like Wilson. But his coach is really wasting one of the game’s best quarterbacks, and this year could be especially rough. The Seahawks let Jimmy Graham walk in the offseason, who was responsible for 10 of Wilson’s 34 touchdowns. Then they let Paul Richardson walk, who was responsible for another six of those touchdowns. On the defensive side, they released stud cornerback Richard Sherman, traded edge rusher Michael Bennett and his 8.5 sacks, and were unable to re-sign Sheldon Richardson, one of the games best tackles. Things got worse for Wilson on draft day, when the Seahawks failed to address their needs on the offensive line and instead drafted a running back in the first round who couldn’t beat out a seventh-rounder who has only played four NFL games. And if all that wasn't enough, Wilson’s top receiver, Doug Baldwin, is reportedly playing at only 85% with a knee injury. Yikes!

Wilson was basically the Seahawks entire offense a year ago, and he will need to be again this year. But unlike last year he is missing vital weapons and will be playing opposite one of the league’s worst defenses. While Wilson should still be a fine fantasy quarterback, it’s unlikely he’ll pay off his QB3 ADP and will likely finish outside the top-5. Outside of Wilson, the Seahawks legitimately have one of the league’s worst teams, which is a shame considering the talent they have at quarterback. As a fan I’m hoping I’m wrong, but as an analyst I cannot draft Wilson at his current cost.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz made a huge jump in his sophomore year, leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Like Watson, Wentz had an incredible touchdown rate, finishing second at 7.5%. Compare that to his rookie season of just 2.6% and you can see the leap he made. There are definitely concerns heading into 2018, however. First, obviously, is the knee. The Eagles have already announced Nick Foles as their Week 1 starter, and reports are they are in no rush to get Wentz back on the field before he is ready. Chances are we don’t see him until Week 3 at the earliest, and it could be even longer. Second, when he does come back you have to wonder how the knee will affect his mobility. One of Wentz’ strongest attributes is moving in the pocket to avoid pressure. While the Eagles do have a solid offensive line, if Wentz loses pocket mobility those throws on the run we saw him make last year won’t happen. Third, like Watson above, his touchdown rate is likely unsustainable as well. He finished second to Watson at 7.5%, which has only been eclipsed four times in the last five years (Tony Romo 7.8% in 2014, Nick Foles 8.5% 2013, Peyton Manning 8.3% 2013 and of course Watson last year).

Despite all the risks, Wentz is being drafted as a top-eight quarterback but is more than likely going to finish outside the top-10. Coming off a severe ACL injury, and due for touchdown regression, drafters are better off passing on him, especially at a position that is so deep.


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