X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 2): Targets and Avoids

What an exciting Week 1 - one of my favorite opening weeks in recent memory. We got to see a rare tie, a seven hour game, a shootout, and some good defensive battles. Even crazier, more than half of survivor pools are already eliminated after the Saints and Lions lost.

Week 1 also leads to massive overreaction, but it's only one game. Take a deep breath. Take a step back. Don't jump to any conclusions. I usually wait until after the first month to start making assumptions. You can't judge a team on one game. Many are still playing themselves into regular season shape. But there are several things that could have been said about the same teams or players at the end of last season. Let's take a look at those!

One note about the Titans Dolphins game last week. The Titans were my bet of the week. They were controlling that game until they went for it on 4th-and-goal from the Dolphins three and missed it. They were up 3-0 at that point and would've been up 6-0 had they kicked the field goal. The field goal is obviously not the sexy move, but it was the right one in that situation. Why? Because the Dolphins offense took that momentum went the length of the field scoring a touchdown. Then there were two rain delays making the game last seemingly forever.

Editors Note: RotoBaller's NEW Survivor Grid Tool provides an easy-to-use color-coded interface with each team's full schedule, including Vegas spreads. Plan your picks, create multiple entries, and save your progress. Click here to use the Survivor Grid today.

 

Survivor League Strategy

For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week. If they win you move on to the next week. But you cannot use that team ever again. There is no point spread involved.

I will also be giving out my three top plays against the spread. I will italicize the team I like. It will look like this: Patriots -7 vs. Jets. The team I like in any given game against the spread will be first.

I used to have rules for how to go about making your survivor picks each week, but rules are meant to be broken especially in a year like this. Here are my guidelines.

1) Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Browns and the Bills.

2) Try to avoid divisional rivalry games. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Some weeks the best option will be a divisional bout.

3) Avoid underdogs.

Before making any picks, look at the point spreads. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us. Use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week. There will be a game or two a week where the line makes NO SENSE where they are begging you to bet one side. When the spread looks like an easy cover, it rarely is. Vegas is giving you an inside scoop and they're mostly always right. I will point those spreads out each week.

The biggest favorites in Week 2 per sportsbook (home team in caps):

  • RAMS -12.5 vs. Cardinals
  • SAINTS -9 vs. Browns
  • Chargers -7.5 @ BILLS

If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the line moved.

I will not be really digging into the advanced stats until Week 5. I need a month sample size.

 

Top Survivor Picks for Week 2

*In order of my favorite selections*

 

SAINTS -9 vs. Browns

I was nervous about the Saints last week because the game looked too easy. I even wrote this is the week to take them because they get the sorry Browns in their building. The Browns defense is really good, but the Saints have too many weapons. The Saints should be able to score 30, but the Browns offense can't put up nearly that many. Tyrod Taylor can't throw a deep ball. He throws short underneath routes which are fine, but not against Drew Brees. I hate to say a Week 2 game is a must-win for anyone, but it really is a must win for New Orleans. They can't afford to drop their first two games of the season.

Saints 37 - Browns 13

 

49ERS -6 vs. Lions

Detroit looked horrific on Monday night. To open the season on national television against a rookie quarterback and get smacked 48-17 is a really bad outlook for the season. The Jets offense did whatever they wanted. They controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford knows he has to do it all each game because they haven't had a running back rush for more than 100 yards in 69 straight games.

The Niners were outplayed in Minnesota, but they hung with them all game. Despite being down 24-6, they showed grit coming all the way back and even had the ball late down 24-16 before Jimmy Garoppolo threw a game-ending pick. Looking at the Niners schedule, there may not be a better chance to take them than this week. They have too many weapons for Detroit to handle. Matt Patricia will need to sharpen that pencil several times Sunday as he makes constant changes to his gameplan.

49ers 31 - Lions 20

 

Eagles -3.5 @ BUCS

Philly not only has 10 days to prepare for this game, but people are already knocking them after their sub-par performance in their opener against Atlanta. Everyone loves Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs after they shocked everyone beating the Saints. Philly's defense is way too good for the Bucs and they'll hold them to under 14 points.

Eagles 31 - Bucs 14

 

Cardinals +12.5 @ RAMS

The Rams can very well be a juggernaut this year and win 14 games, but here's another divisional game that looks too easy (just like the Saints last week). The Cardinals can't be any worse than they were last week where Sam Bradford threw for a putrid 4.50 yards per attempt. However, Bradford usually plays well in September. I used this table last week and updated it to include last week's game.

SAM BRADFORD'S FIRST FOUR GAMES (LAST FOUR SEASONS) 
Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass Pass
Date
Tm Opp Result G# Week Day Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A
2018-09-09 ARI WAS L 6-24 1 1 Sun 20 34 58.82 153 0 1 57.6 4.50
2017-09-11 MIN NOR W 29-19 1 1 Mon 27 32 84.38 346 3 0 143.0 10.81
2016-10-03 MIN NYG W 24-10 4 4 Mon 26 36 72.22 262 1 0 101.9 7.28
2016-09-25 MIN @ CAR W 22-10 3 3 Sun 18 28 64.29 171 1 0 93.0 6.11
2016-09-18 MIN GNB W 17-14 2 2 Sun 22 31 70.97 286 2 0 121.2 9.23
2015-10-04 PHI @ WAS L 20-23 4 4 Sun 15 28 53.57 270 3 0 122.6 9.64
2015-09-27 PHI @ NYJ W 24-17 3 3 Sun 14 28 50.00 118 1 0 73.2 4.21
2015-09-20 PHI DAL L 10-20 2 2 Sun 23 37 62.16 224 1 2 65.6 6.05
2015-09-14 PHI @ ATL L 24-26 1 1 Mon 36 52 69.23 336 1 2 77.1 6.46

 
The Rams may be a team you want to save this season. That's why the Saints are the play this week.

 

Top Survivor Picks to Avoid 

BILLS +7.5 vs. Chargers

There is a trend from The Action Network that says when a team loses by 35+ points the week before, they cover at a 64% clip the following week. That trend applies to the Bills this week.

The Chargers have to travel east for this 1 p.m. game. San Diego has such a dynamic offense, but continually finds way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Chargers 24 - Bills 19

 

Colts +6 @ REDSKINS

The Redskins looked great Sunday, but they beat up on the Cardinals, one of the three worst teams in football. They are better at every position than the Colts, except for quarterback. Andrew Luck can single-handedly carry the Colts to a win against anyone if he plays to his capabilities. This also feels like the Redskins are primed for a stinker after their dominating performance in Arizona.

Redskins 21 - Colts 20

 

The Rest

BENGALS + 1 vs. Ravens (Thursday night) - The Ravens being favorite is a gross over-exaggeration to them destroying the worst team in football. The Bengals seemed more impressive against Luck holding the Colts to 23 points and 4.9 yards per play. This is going to be a classic low-scoring defensive AFC North bruising type game, especially on a short week. I like the Bengals as home dogs.

FALCONS -6 vs. Panthers - Atlanta should win comfortably in this one. They have an extra three days to prepare for Carolina. The Falcons need a win after losing to the Eagles in the opener. They should be able to score a lot, but their red zone offense can make you extremely nervous.

STEELERS -5 vs. Chiefs - Here's the line that makes no sense. The Chiefs looked like a Super Bowl contender last week beating the Chargers easily while the Steelers played awful tying the laughingstock of the league. So how can Pittsburgh be a 5-point favorite at home against this high-octane Chiefs offense? Well for one, the Steelers are 29-11 at home since 2013. Two, Vegas is telling you something about this game. They are begging you to bet the Chiefs, which means you bet the Steelers. That's why this is one of my top plays.

JETS -3 vs. Dolphins - I think the Dolphins are one of the worst teams in football. That game against Tennessee was simply weird with all those delays. The Jets will ride their momentum to a 2-0 start.

Patriots -2.5 @ JAGUARS - The Jaguars offense could barely move the ball on Sunday against the Giants. If they had any sort of quarterback, this team would be a top team in the league with Super Bowl aspirations, but Blake Bortles isn't capable of keeping up with Tom Brady. I know, I know the first thing you'll bring up is last year's AFC Championship Game, but I just think the Jags were riding a hot streak. Patriots big.

Raiders +5.5 @ BRONCOS - The only reason I'm taking the Raiders is because I believe the public will be all-in on Denver. When the public goes one way, you go the other.

GIANTS +3 @ Cowboys (Sunday night) - This game is nearly impossible to forecast. I'll go with the Giants because they have more offensive weapons.

BEARS -3.5 vs. Seahawks (Monday night)Khalil Mack will destroy the Seahawks offensive line. Russell Wilson will be in for a long night.

There is no line on the Texans Titans matchup at the time of this publishing due to Marcus Mariota's uncertain status. Same for the Packers Vikings because of Aaron Rodgers.

 

ATS Record: 1-2

This week: Saints -9, Eagles -3.5, Steelers -5

 

Good luck, and I'll be back next week previewing Week 3.

 

More Weekly Lineup Prep




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma