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It's Christmas Eve.
The NFL Draft is my favorite day of the year, and the picks made tomorrow night will have an enormous impact on the future of the NFL. The biggest storyline of the night will be the quarterback position, where five signal-callers will anxiously wait to hear their names. There's a real chance that four go in the top four, but a draft night slide is also a possibility for C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis. Bryce Young will be a Panther (and a great one!).
The purpose of this mock draft is to predict each pick in an attempt to be as accurate as possible. Keep in mind that while team needs are taken into account, people generally overrate that aspect when it comes to the NFL Draft. Most organizations aim to take the best player available after filling needs in free agency.
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The Top 10: Where do the QBs go?
1) Carolina Panthers (via Chicago) – Bryce Young (QB – Alabama)
The Panthers are locked into Bryce Young, as they should be. I expect him to become a star in the NFL thanks to elite processing and improvisational wizardry. Next on the list for Carolina - find your young QB some receivers.
You can read my full film breakdown of Young here.
2) Houston Texans – Tyree Wilson - EDGE, Texas Tech
The Texans could punt QB altogether with their eyes on next year's class. If they take a defensive player, it will likely be either Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson. Wilson has more size and length, so he gets the nod here.
3) Arizona Cardinals – Paris Johnson - OT, Ohio State
The Cardinals could deal this pick to a team looking for a quarterback, but if they stay put, Paris Johnson makes sense as the best offensive lineman in the draft. Johnson is technically sound and plays with great hand placement.
4) Indianapolis Colts – C.J. Stroud - QB, Ohio State
The Colts have been heavily linked to Will Levis, but I think that's been a smokescreen. I think the Colts prefer C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson here, and have been sending signals they want Levis so teams that want Stroud or Richardson aren't aggressive about moving up to No. 3. Richardson makes sense, as new head coach Shane Steichen has had success with another mobile QB in Jalen Hurts. In the end, they go with Stroud, who was brilliant at Ohio State, despite what any cognition test might say.
5) Seattle Seahawks (via Denver) – Jalen Carter - DT, Georgia
The Seahawks are in excellent shape. They need help along the defensive line, so any of Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, or Jalen Carter would be a great addition. However, if a quarterback they feel is a franchise guy is available at No. 5, it could be a franchise-altering great move. Anthony Richardson makes sense, but in the end, Pete Carroll wants to take a few more stabs at a deep playoff run, so adding DL help is a must.
6) Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles) – Devon Witherspoon - CB, Illinois
The Lions are on an exciting trajectory. After barely missing out on the playoffs last year, this draft presents an opportunity to get an impact player, likely on the defensive side of the ball.
However, if C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson were to fall this far, the Lions could pounce on an opportunity to get a top QB prospect. They likely won't be picking this high next year. In this projection, they take Devon Witherspoon, who is fast and physical and can play both inside and out. He would be an immediate starter in Detroit.
7) Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez - CB, Oregon
The Raiders could be in the market for a QB, but in this projection, they instead address a huge need at CB. Christian Gonzalez can play man or zone and has exciting ball skills.
8) Atlanta Falcons – Will Anderson - EDGE, Alabama
The Falcons added a handful of defensive free agents, which frees them up to go with the best player available at this spot. Will Anderson is arguably the best player in the draft so the Falcons would be ecstatic to land him at No. 8.
9) Chicago Bears (via Carolina) – Bijan Robinson - RB, Texas
The Bears need a tackle, but if Jalen Carter were to fall to this spot, he could be the pick. In this projection, Paris Johnson is gone so the Bears choose to add one of the best RB prospects of this decade.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans) – Nolan Smith - EDGE, Georgia
The Eagles are in a fantastic position to take the best player available. In this projection, they take an EDGE who can help get after the passer opposite Hassan Reddick. Nolan Smith doesn't have ideal size, but he is extremely fast and fits the organizational philosophy of the Eagles.
Picks 11-20: O-Line help for Aaron Rodgers
11) Tennessee Titans – Peter Skoronski - OL, Northwestern
The Titans could trade up for one of the top four QBs, or position themselves for Hendon Hooker later in the first. If they stay put, adding a versatile offensive lineman like Peter Skoronski is a no-brainer. He would be a day-one starter.
12) Houston Texans (via Cleveland) – Will Levis - QB, Kentucky
There would be some game theory to this pick (or Anthony Richardson or Hendon Hooker). First, the Texans would be getting great value on a high-upside QB prospect. Second, they'd be able to throw Will Levis (or Hooker, or Richardson, or Trey Lance...) into the fire to see how he does. If Levis plays well, the Texans win some games and you build around a potential star. Because of his boom-or-bust potential, it's likelier that his downside case leads to a league-worst season. In that event, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are possibilities in 2024.
13) Green Bay Packers (via New York Jets) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Ohio State
The Packers need a tight end, but in a good tight end class, could push it until later. Taking the draft's best receiver to give Jordan Love a dependable slot target would be a wise decision.
14) New England Patriots – Darnell Wright - OT, Tennessee
The Patriots need a tackle, and Darnell Wright is one of the most underrated players in the draft. He'd step in and immediately start at right tackle in New England.
15) New York Jets (via Green Bay) – Broderick Jones - OT, Georgia
The Jets have a new QB, but with Mekhi Becton's future up in the air, they could use some help protecting Aaron Rodgers. Broderick Jones has some Tyron Smith-like traits and could step in and start right away.
16) Washington Commanders – Brian Branch - DB, Alabama
The Commanders need help in the secondary, and Brian Branch is one of the most instinctive defenders in this class. He can play some nickel corner and safety in Washington.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers – Deonte Banks - CB, Maryland
The Steelers could use some help at CB and Deonte Banks has the speed and natural coverage instincts to be a day-one starter. He's physical and can turn his head to locate the ball down the field in man coverage.
18) Detroit Lions – Michael Mayer - TE, Notre Dame
The Lions could look to bolster the D-line with Calijah Kancey here, but in this projection, they add another weapon for Jared Goff. Michael Mayer has receiver skills in a tight-end body and would be the second option in Detroit during Jameson Williams' suspension.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zay Flowers - WR, Boston College
The Bucs reportedly want to see what they have in Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask, so passing on a falling QB is a possibility. In this projection, they get younger at WR with Boston College playmaker Zay Flowers.
20) Seattle Seahawks – Anthony Richardson - QB, Florida
In this projection, Anthony Richardson slides to 20, and the Seahawks are thrilled to pick up their next potential franchise QB.
Picks 21-31: Playmakers for AFC Contenders
21) Los Angeles Chargers – Jordan Addison - WR, USC
The Chargers need a receiver and Jordan Addison has all the traits teams look for. He has excellent hands and runs terrific routes. His size/speed combination is below average but coaches will love the technical aspect of his game.
22) Baltimore Ravens – Lukas Van Ness - EDGE, Iowa
The Ravens typically prioritize toughness and motor. Lukas Van Ness isn't necessarily the most bendy or talented EDGE, but he plays with passion and would be an excellent fit in Baltimore.
23) Minnesota Vikings – Emmanuel Forbes - CB, Mississippi State
The Vikings could take a QB here, with Hendon Hooker a possible option. However, they need a lot of help on defense, specifically in the secondary. Emmanuel Forbes had unreal ball production at Mississippi State and has drawn comparisons to Samari Rolle.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars – Calijah Kancey - DT, Pittsburgh
The Jaguars are trending in the right direction, but they could use some help in terms of interior pass rush. Calijah Kancey is small but has some of the best inside pass-rushing juice in this class.
25) New York Giants – John Michael Schmitz - C, Minnesota
The Giants could be in the market for a receiver here, but they also have a pressing need at center, and John Michael Schmitz is a surefire starter from day one. Schmitz has excellent film as a run blocker and pass-protector.
26) Dallas Cowboys – Myles Murphy - EDGE, Clemson
The Cowboys could use an EDGE, and Myles Murphy is a clean prospect with ideal size and experience. He projects as a solid starter at the minimum and can help get after the passer for when Demarcus Lawrence is gone.
27) Buffalo Bills – Quentin Johnston - WR, TCU
It became very clear down the stretch that the Bills need a better No. 2 receiver for Josh Allen. Quentin Johnston has the physical potential to be a much better version of Gabe Davis.
28) Cincinnati Bengals – Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Alabama
The Bengals will definitely address RB in this draft, and although the second day is probably more likely, allow me to make the case for Jahmyr Gibbs here. Cincy will likely lose one of their top receivers at some point in the near future, and Gibbs offers playmaking upside in the passing game that could help replace some of that production.
29) New Orleans Saints (via Denver, Miami, San Francisco) – Will McDonald IV - EDGE, Iowa State
Will McDonald is small but has one of the best first steps in this class. He can impact a game as a sub-package rusher in his first year and put on some bulk to develop into a starter down the line.
*TRADE*
The Eagles trade No. 30 to the Titans for No. 41, No. 72, and a 2024 2nd-round pick.
30) Tennessee Titans (via Philadelphia) – Hendon Hooker - QB, Tennessee
The Titans want to compete next year with the Tannehill/Henry window closing fast. Hendon Hooker makes a ton of sense for them, as he can sit behind Tannehill and recover from his injury as a rookie while learning and watching a veteran. While Hooker is an older prospect, he might not be ready to start right away coming off an injury and from a non-pro style offensive system.
31) Kansas City Chiefs (via Vikings) – Anton Harrison - OT, Oklahoma
The Chiefs need a tackle, and Anton Harrison has some impressive film. They've had recent success with another Oklahoma offensive lineman in center Creed Humphrey.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the draft! I'll be back Friday with my 2nd-3rd round mock.
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