Coaching Carousel Takes: Best Fits for 2021

January 5, 2021

Dom's evaluation of NFL teams looking to make a change at head coach in the 2021 offseason. He lists his recommendations for each team and the fantasy football impact it would have.

As the offseason approaches, the NFL coaching carousel begins again. It's hard to predict what teams will do so I will not even attempt to. Instead of trying to figure out what coach is going where, I will determine the best fit for each team.

We are not certain of all the job openings which are coming. Denver has said Vic Fangio is safe. Other than this we are unsure. Chicago should part with Matt Nagy but probably won't, especially if they eke into the playoffs. The late-season run has likely saved him. Is Anthony Lynn gone? Who knows? But based on the moves expected to be made, we will try to determine the best fit for each of the openings.

There is always a surprise hire or two. Think Zac Taylor. So, no one should be surprised when Rex Ryan gets another job. Or even Adam Gase.

Atlanta Falcons

What do the Falcons have? An offense, or at least a passing game.

Matt Ryan is older. Julio Jones has missed time this season. But they can still be great together. Add Calvin Ridley to the mix and the Falcons offense will be highly productive for fantasy managers for a few more seasons. So, what do the Falcons need? Defense.

Despite Dan Quinn and now Raheem Morris being from the defensive side of the ball, the defense is terrible. It has been a mixture of horrific drafting as well as a lack of production by others. Either way, they are bad and in need of reinforcements.

If they want the defense to improve, the obvious choice is a defensive-minded head coach. Someone who can help the defense get opposing offenses off the field. By doing this, it will put less pressure on Ryan and company to always have to perform. If they can do this then they can relax and make less mistakes. Everything will run more efficiently and Ridley, Jones, and also Ryan can retain places in the top 10 for fantasy.

There is one defensive coordinator who every has pegged for a head coaching position. He is also certain to get one. That is Robert Saleh. He will be listed here as the best fit for a few of the teams. This is not a surprise. This also means there will be teams who need a defensive head coach who cannot get him. For this reason, I will give a few options for the Falcons. Saleh of course. But also, a bit of a curveball. Someone who currently coaches just a few hours north and has never been an NFL head coach before. With Arthur Blank cleaning house this offseason, he might as well start.

It is possible that the team gives Morris another shot to be a head coach but with a 4-6 record so far, it's far from guaranteed.

Best Fit: Robert Saleh or Brent Venables

Detroit Lions

Is Jim Harbaugh going to be the next coach in Detroit? For the sake of Lions fans, I certainly hope not. But it could happen. If it does, it just means the Lions really have not changed their thinking at all.

Matthew Stafford is a good QB. He can not make it work in Detroit though. He will most likely be losing his best weapon in Kenny Golladay this offseason to free agency. Whether it be Philadelphia, New England, or someone else, Golladay is going to get a top of the market deal. This means the offense and Stafford are going to take a hit. This means that other than D’Andre Swift, there will be no real fantasy goodness in 2021 on this team.

Drafting Jeff Okudah was the correct move this season. He was the clear number one at a desperate position of need. Injuries limited his rookie season and the rest of the defense floundered as well. The team has everything to work on. Harbaugh is not the person to do it. But Robert Saleh might be. If you ask the Michigan legislature, he definitely is.

To my money though, Saleh is not a great fit here. He can help the defense for sure. But unlike Atlanta or another team where I would want him to go, the offense needs a ton of work. He would need to find the perfect coordinator to call that side of the ball. And that may not fit with who the Ford family would want him to bring in. Therefore, the best fit here is an offensive coach who can bring in a defensive coordinator to get the defense to progress.

Although not great, the Falcons Defense has performed better since Raheem Morris has taken over as coach. He is not going to retain the job in Atlanta, and this means his departure from the team is also imminent. Getting him in as the defensive coordinator in Detroit would be great. He can handle the defense and be an experienced ear for a young head coach. Someone he can lean on and ask questions as he learns on the job.

While 2021 will not be a great fantasy season for Detroit, it may not be long until they are back and relevant again. As long as they choose wisely.

Best Fit: Joe Brady

Houston Texans

They have the offense. Deshaun Watson is a stud. David Johnson is a great pass catcher out of the backfield and if they can re-sign him, Will Fuller can make a great compliment to Brandin Cooks in the pass game.

Titus Young looks to be a bit of a bust so far but Laremy Tunsil has improved the offensive line greatly. This is good since Houston has basically nothing to use in terms of draft capital to get better. Bill O'Brien did a number on this team both on the field and in the front office. Now the team is paying the price for it.

The defense is only getting older and worse. J.J. Watt was once great. He is past his prime. If you match him up with a great defensive coach, they can do a lot to make the defense better just by changing the attitude. Trying to fix the secondary will be of key importance this free agency period. With not much money to spend, late-round draft picks will need to also be used. To find the right talent, you need the right person to evaluate talent. A name I have mentioned many times is perfect - Robert Saleh. This is where he belongs.

He will have his pick of jobs. This may not be at the top of his list but it should be. The offense is there. Watson is a top-five QB both in reality and for fantasy football. Fuller is a great receiver when he is healthy and the run game is solid enough to get by. The defense is the key and Saleh is perfect.

After working with young talent like Nick Bosa and veterans in Richard Sherman, he will have the experience to get this group in shape. He could easily lead a charge which could see the Texans back in the playoffs after a one-year hiatus.

The first thing Houston needs to do is get Jack Easterby out of the building. The next thing they need to do is get Saleh in the building.

Best Fit: Robert Saleh

Jacksonville Jaguars

They have won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Now they need to hit on a new head coach. Someone young who can work with Lawrence to make him the best he can be for the Jaguars.

D.J. Chark is a wonderful receiver. He has size and speed and can be a number one for the Jaguars and for fantasy. James Robinson has also been a revelation this season. He will be the new Travis Etienne to Lawrence as they grow together. This trio could be great together under the right system. So, get a coach who can run it.

Buffalo has done great things this season. Using Zack Moss and Devin Singletary enough to keep defenses honest has allowed Josh Allen to become a star. He has Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley to thank for this. But he also has another person to thank as well - Brian Daboll.

Daboll has been the key to turning Allen into what he has become. It is always dangerous to hire the hot new coordinator as it rarely works out. The Jaguars have to do something though. They are perpetually bad and not getting better. Taking a chance on their next hire is something the fans want. They can not re-tread an old coach and hope they change this time around. Having Daboll working with Lawrence would be great. Lawrence and Allen both have the size and arm talent. Lawrence can run as well. He is also more polished coming out of college than Allen was. And this is key. The offense for Jacksonville will improve greatly with Lawrence. Robinson could take another step forward next season and Chark will be the big target needed by a rookie QB coming into the league.

The defenses of Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston do not instill fear. Having an offense under Daboll and Lawrence which can throw downfield finally would set Jacksonville up for success in the division. So, make it happen Jackson(ville).

Best Fit: Brian Daboll

Los Angeles Chargers

Unlike the openings in Jacksonville or Detroit, Los Angeles does not need a total tear-down and overhaul. Instead, the Chargers have what any new coach covets - a young talented QB, a run game and a star wide receiver. All the parts are there. All they need is someone to make the machine work. Mu suggestion is not the most glamorous option but it is the best option both for the Chargers and more importantly for fantasy rosters.

A new coach is going to try and implement everything new. Think Adam Gase or Chip Kelly. It does not always work. What does work is someone who can innovate when needed yet also know what is already working.

For these reasons and others, a veteran coach is the best fit in Los Angeles. Jeff Fisher? Ok enough laughing, I was teasing. Someone with the experience though. Preferably someone on the offensive side of the ball to keep the production level of Herbert at an elite level. This limits the field as most owners want to take a chance on the next big thing. If they fall into this trap, please only let it be if you can manage to pry Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma. If not consider a grizzled veteran who has been around the game a long time.

Best Fit: Gary Kubiak

New York Jets

I really hate to put anyone here. It is likely they will fail, and the ownership group is seemingly uninterested in getting better. This makes it difficult to put the person here I am going to.

The Jets have shown signs of life in the past few weeks. At least enough life to lose the number one draft pick and a chance at Trevor Lawrence. Justin Fields is a far cry from being the number two pick some project him as. Other QB’s have made a jump this season but none will give the Jets any better chance then Sam Darnold does. So, they need to just find him help. Offensive line help and WR help.

If the Jets are able to do this and give him the weapons needed, Darnold could lift the Jets back to respectability next season. Especially under an offensive-minded head coach. A coach who has led a stellar offense in Kansas City and deserves to be given the head job somewhere.

Eric Bieniemy is great for this job. He will work with Darnold to make him the best he can be. He will bring an entirely new atmosphere to the locker room and he brings a winning pedigree from his time with Andy Reid. If the Johnson family and Joe Douglas want to get back into contention, they need to fix, well everything from the top down. Eric Bieniemy will make the changes.

Much like Ron Rivera in Washington, sometimes it really is more about the coaching and environment than it is lack of skill. Finding the right leader is as important. It can make up for deficits in skill with hard work. For the sake of Jets fans and NFL fans in general. Make the Jets relevant again.

Best Fit: Eric Bieniemy

Philadelphia Eagles

We do not know if this job will be open or not. As an Eagles fan, I am hopefully optimistic that it will be. With this in mind, who do we need to fill the vacancy? I wanted to put Eric Bieniemy here. It would be perfect with the players Philadelphia has on offense. But I do not feel the Eagles will turn again to the Andy Reid coaching tree. So, he is unfortunately out of the conversation.

Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders lead a young core group of players. Along with Jalen Reagor at WR and a solid defense, the Eagles can be contenders for the NFC East and a return to the playoffs in 2021.

Philly fans love to hate you when you are down and love you when winning. They never stop caring and they never abandon you. They just care and let you know their true feelings about it. Jim Schwartz and the rest of the coaching staff know this all too well. But if Schwartz were not here, the defense would completely collapse. Much like the offense has since the departure of Frank Reich.

Getting Jalen Hurts or Carson Wentz into the conversation as a QB one for fantasy and having the weapons in Reagor and Sanders into the same discussions is important to us as fantasy managers. So, who can get us there?

Someone young. Someone who has done more with less this season and been pretty successful anyway. Someone who learned under Sean Peyton at my favorite New Orleans Saints. And someone who can outrun Philly fans if needed.

Best Fit: Joe Brady

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