FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup Picks (5/19/17): MLB DFS Advice

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Happy Friday, my fellow Rotoballers. Besides having an awesome slate and the weekend on deck, it's finally feeling like Summer here in the northeast. Three reasons to be excited. Let's add some DFS cash to the mix and make it even better one, shall we?

There are 14 games in the Main contest slate tonight. I'm leaving the Brewers - Cubs game out of the discussion because the available contests in FanDuel aren't really worth your investment in time or money because they payouts are weak. If you can't resist playing the all day, you might as well stack that game because the pitching options are guys - Paolo Espino and Eddie Butler - that really belong in Quad-A at best. There's also the fact that each team has a lot of pop and the wind has been blowing out all week in Wrigley.

Let's see what we can gather from Vegas lines and some crazy line movement that's happened since the release of said lines late last night. The highest projected run totals of the day belong to Tigers (5.2), Nationals (5.1) and the Dodgers (4.9). The Tigers and Nationals numbers have increased .3 and .4, respectively, which are pretty significant jumps. The biggest moneyline favorites of the day - good for identifying safer or cash game friendly pitchers - are the Dodgers (-228) and the Red Sox (-193). The Nationals and Astros are decently sized favorites, but none of the other lines are that significant as of this morning.

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In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/19/17. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays

 

Offensive Stacks

Colorado Rockies versus Lisalverto Bonilla

This stack is one that I was absolutely in love with last night and still like this morning. But in the sake of being honest about the whole picture - which includes Vegas lines and line movement that I value so much - I have to tell you the Rockies total run projection sat at 4.8 last night and dipped down to 4.3. That said, I still like this option in tournament formats and perhaps it's a stack best left to three players. The Rockies often go a little overlooked playing away from Coors, but this park in Cincinnati can be a great home run producer and their opposing starter, Lisalverto Bonilla really has no business pitching in the bigs - and hadn't prior to this season since a few appearances in 2014. Bonilla has made two starts this season and while the strikeout showing is somewhat impressive, his HR/9 is over two and there are quite a few Rockies at the top of this order with great splits against right-handed pitchers. My favorite Rockies to target are Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds.

 

Detroit Tigers versus Nick Martinez

As I mentioned up top, the Tigers have the highest run projection of the day at 5.2, and they've also seen an increase to their original line since last night. In other words, smart Vegas money has been on the over. J.D. Martinez couldn't have returned at a better time, seeing as Miguel Cabrera will be out a few days with an oblique injury, but even in Cabrera's absence, this team packs a lot of power in the 1-6 spots. The most attractive thing about the Tigers today may be a man wearing a Rangers uniform - Nick Martinez. Martinez has struggled greatly this year - both in finding the plate and keeping the ball in the yard, as he's posted a 1.49 WHIP and has allowed 2.02 HR/9. While the Tigers provide most of their power from the right side, I do like that Nick Martinez is an equal opportunity guy, in that his splits show an allowed slugging percentage north of .480 for both sides and more than 2.0 HR/9 to lefties and right-handed batters. This really boosts the profiles of guys like Tyler Collins and Alex Avila, who is somewhat surprisingly on a little tear of his own. My favorite Tigers tonight are JD, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos and Tyler Collins.

 

Also Consider: New York Yankees versus Erasmo Ramirez 

 

FanDuel DFS Pitchers

Chris Sale - SP, at OAK ($12,000)

There's no denying Chris Sale is the belle of the Friday night ball. He has been utterly dominant this season and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight in Oakland. Sale's recorded no less than 10 strikeouts in seven starts and he faces an Athletics team tonight that has a high strikeout rate against southpaws and in a great park for pitchers. His season numbers - 1.05 WHIP, 1.08 HR/9 and 10.6 K/9 - are brilliant and fully justify the steep salary. He's the strongest cash game option on the board by far and if you get creative with your stack(s), throw him in a GPP, too.

 

Luis Severino - SP, at TB ($9,200)

Make no mistake, the man mentioned in my "also consider" option below is a fine mid-tier, tournament and even cash game option. That is pretty clear based on his numbers this season and a good matchup to pair. Severino, however, is a guy I find in a pretty opportune spot for tournament formats and with a good number of pitching options in this price tier, I think he may go under-owned. Severino this season is showing flashes in bunches of the pitcher many Yankees fans were expecting last year after his call up. This season, he's showing he's learned how to effectively pitch at this level - which is to say he's found a balance and isn't trying to blow everyone away. He's always had good stuff and tonight matches up with a team that is strikeout heavy. In fact, their projected lineup has gone down via strikeout in 29.8% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching this season. I live Severino's upside with his 10.2 K/9 mark this season and the Rays fairly low run projection of 3.7.

Also Consider: Alex Wood - SP, vs MIA ($8,900)

 

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Alex Avila - C, vs TEX ($3,000)

We might as well ride this Avila train before it gets too crowded. The backstop is putting up really impressive season numbers thus far - particularly aagainst right-handed pitching with his .380 wOBA and .240 ISO - and has a great matchup against Nick Martinez. Statcast data is also showing love for Avila, as he's owned a 60% hard-hit rate in the past 15 days, which is incredible.

Also Consider: Gary Sanchez - C, at TB ($3,700)

 

Adam Lind - 1B, at ATL ($2,800)

Adam Lind, like Avila mentioned above, has been tearing the cover off the ball. Statcast data from the last 15 days reveals a monstrous 66% hard hit rate and an average batted ball distance of 265 feet. Not to mention, he also owns excellent splits against right-handers this season, owning a .31 wOBA and a .257 ISO power.

Also Consider: Mark Reynolds - at CIN ($3,800)

 

Ryan Schimpf - 2B, vs ARI ($2,700)

The options at second base - save for Daniel Murphy - are really, really underwhelming. With not much I like and so much I want to spend on the awesome pitchers and outfielders we have available today, I'm looking to save some cash and shoot for the moon (see also: upside). Schimpf, even though he's been a tad cold in the past week, represents that value and upside. He has a monstrous .301 ISO split and has a good matchup against Taijuan Walker.

Also Consider: Daniel Murphy - 2B, at ATL ($3,800)

 

Miguel Sano - 3B, vs KC ($3,800)

Third base is quite the opposite of second not in placement on the field but in available options we have across the board tonight. I promise not to make any more awful lines like the one that preceded this. Sano is a beast and I like his chances of getting a grip on a hanging Nathan Karns curveball this evening. His recent stats don't show a lot of output, but he's been unlucky and the 42% hard hit rate paired with a 47% fly ball rate is strong and screams home run potential - maybe even two.

Also Consider: Jake Lamb - 3B, at SD ($4,000)

 

Dansby Swanson - SS, vs WSH ($2,800)

Lieutenant Dans is starting to make his mark on this Atlanta team. Unfortunately for them they have to try and fill Freddie Freeman's shoes now and spoiler alert, that likely can't be done without giving up the farm. As for Dansby and the present, he's in a good spot tonight. Don't be intimidated by Gio Gonzalez - who's not the pitcher he once was and in his past three starts has allowed an opponent wOBA and ISO north of .300 and .200, respectively - and hasn't been sharp either. Swanson is climbing the ladder with pretty impressive season splits against southpaws - .377 wOBA and a .277 ISO, as well.

Also Consider: Pat Valaika - SS, at CIN ($2,600)

 

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

The outfield is absolutely, positively where you want to spend your money tonight. Now that I've said that, I don't have to apologize about not having any write-ups on guys less than $3,700. That's the rules.

Charlie Blackmon - OF, at CIN ($4,200)

Blackmon is my favorite Rockie among the few Rockies stacks I'll be deploying. With his strong splits, good park for offense and locked in spot at the top of the order, I like him as a stand-alone option in tournaments and cash games as well. Those splits I mentioned are quite impressive, take a glance - .419 wOBA and a .300 ISO.

 

Jay Bruce - OF, vs LAA ($3,700)

Jay Bruce, like Avila and Lind, belongs in the "tearing the cover off the ball" category and impressively, Bruce has been doing it longer and more consistently than the aforementioned. He also owns excellent splits against right-handed pitching and hits high in this Mets order. I love the .294 ISO and .560 slugging percentage splits.

 

Aaron Judge - OF, at TB ($4,300)

In tournament play, there aren't many nights when Judge shouldn't be in consideration. Tonight, he gets a really opportune matchup against Erasmo Ramirez and I think Judge and his ISO split north of 300 win the battle a few times.

 

Also Consider: JD Martinez - OF, vs TEX ($4,000) and Jorge Soler - OF, at MIN ($2,800)

 

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