RADIO
Happy Friday, my dear friends and fellow daily fantasy sports aficionados. We have a completely full slate of action set to begin tonight at 7:05 EDT. All 30 teams will be in play and for one of the first times this season, they'll all be participating in the Main contest in FanDuel. That means more player options, less worry about ownership percentages (i said less, not none at all) and more time to decipher which stacks to deploy.
These lines may change a bit before opening pitch tonight, but I think it's important to get an idea of Vegas lines, where the money is going, and where you might want to stack (or fade) based on the insights we can gather. So before we get into the player breakdown, let's see who Vegas believes to have the best chances of scoring a lot of runs tonight. Three teams have run projections of more than five runs, which all put them in play for cash game stacks. The Giants (5.4) at Coors Field lead the pack, followed by the Dodgers (5.2) and Cubs (5). In terms of the heaviest favorites, which can be beneficial to source when deciding on cash game pitchers or which pitchers to avoid, we see the Cubs have the most action on them, sitting at -184 on the moneyline. After that, there aren't many "big" favorites, but following the Cubs are the Indians and Rangers, at -160 and -152, respectively.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 4/21/17. Enjoy the read and good luck out there today. Let's get it rolling!
Offensive Stacks
Chicago Cubs versus Tim Adleman
As I mentioned above, the Cubs are in a beautiful position to score 5+ runs this evening. They have one of, if not the most, potent offense in baseball and they'll be playing today in an ideal park for power hitters. Perhaps even more ideal is that this matchup is against Tim Adleman. Adleman has a horrible 1.7 HR/9 mark over the past year, and he's ineffectively wild with a 1.2 WHIP and a low strikeout rate of just 6.3 per nine innings. This Cubs offense owns a .310 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year, and that mark is the fourth highest of all 30 teams in competition today. My favorite Cubs hitters in this game are Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Miguel Montero.
Also Consider: San Francisco Giants versus Tyler Chatwood
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Jon Lester - SP, at CIN ($10,600)
For my cash game contests tonight, I'm rolling with Mr. Lester. Save for park factors, I think he's in a pretty excellent spot tonight. In three starts this year, Lester has been masterful, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 17. For the season, his WHIP and K rates, 1.05 and 8.9, respectively, are two of the best figures we'll see on the board tonight. As for the opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, their offense leaves quite a bit to be desired, and Lester's left-side delivery helps to neutralize the Reds' best offensive threat in Joey Votto. The Reds have a run projection tonight of just 3.4, putting them in the bottom five of said projections this evening, and Vegas is pretty heavy on the Cubs. I like Jon's chances of getting run support and going deep enough for the Quality Start and the win. What helps to raise his upside today is the fact that this Reds team has struck out in nearly 26% of their at-bats against lefties in 2016-17.
Justin Verlander - SP, at MIN ($9,400)
He's a bit more expensive than I like to spend on my tournament pitchers, but I'm rolling with Verlander tonight for a few reasons. For starters - and most importantly for tournament formats - no one quite offers the strikeout upside that Verlander possesses tonight. His velocity is back and he seems to have picked up where he left off after a promising second half to his 2016 campaign. In three starts this season, he's averaging a 10.2 K/9 and has been excellent in limiting base-runners, posting a 1.007 WHIP. In addition to that, Verlander is pitching in a very favorable pitchers' park this evening and faces a Twins team that is no stranger to the strikeout. Since the beginning of 2016, the Twins have struck out in 27.8% of their at-bats versus right-handed pitching - the highest mark of today's games.
Also Consider: Corey Kluber - SP, at CWS ($9,900) - GPP only
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Miguel Montero - C, at CIN ($2,600)
Montero hasn't seen a ton of action yet in 2017, but when he's been in the lineup he has certainly made the most of it. In addition to heating up, Montero fits the profile of what I look for in a catcher - someone priced below 3K that also possesses home run upside. Montero has solid splits with a .313 wOBA, a .164 ISO and the platoon advantage. The ISO isn't all that impressive as a standalone statistic, but keep in mind it's more than 100 points higher than his split against lefties. In other words, if he's going to hit the long ball, it's against a right-hander. Montero also has good park factors working in his favor tonight and hits behind the meat of the Cubs order, one that is projected for the most runs of the day.
Also Consider: Evan Gattis - C, at TB ($3,000)
Matt Carpenter - 1B, at MIL ($2,900)
Carpenter is an excellent, high value play tonight. His bat has finally started to come alive and his price has lagged behind, making it the perfect opportunity for him to hit two to three times his value. Carpenter hits in a very favorable spot in this order, gets a park upgrade with this game taking place in Milwaukee, and he faces an inferior pitcher Wily Peralta. Over the last year, Carpenter's splits against right-handers are very strong, as he's posted a .384 wOBA and .252 ISO.
Also Consider: Anthony Rizzo - 1B, at CIN ($4,200)
Rougned Odor - 2B, vs KC ($3,100)
Nathan Karns is just what the doctor ordered to get Rougy out of this little slump he's in. The talented little lefty-bat has excellent splits over the past year and holds the platoon advantage in this matchup. Those splits I'm referring to are a 3.40 wOBA, .252 ISO and a .523 slugging percentage. Those numbers would play at nearly any position, but they're extra valuable in this slot. Adding to Odor's allure tonight is that he's playing in one of the best parks for hitters.
Also Consider: Ian Kinsler - 2B, at MIN ($3,200)
Justin Turner - 3B, at ARI ($3,700)
Keep an eye on this one as we get closer to lock, as he's currently listed as Questionable for tonight's game. Even with that as the case, I can't resist touting him. Turner has excellent splits against right-handed pitching - marked by his .390 wOBA and .256 ISO - and he gets a park factor boost tonight with this game being played in Arizona. In addition to that, he's priced much cheaper than other third baseman with very similar splits and similar upside.
Also Consider: Jefry Marte - 3B, vs TOR ($2,400)
Corey Seager - SS, at ARI ($3,500)
Seager and teammate Justin Turner could make for a nice pairing (or mini-stack, if you prefer to refer to it as that). They're both in prime position tonight, thanks to a lower-than-usual cost, park upgrade, and the excellent splits they sport. Seager owns a .412 wOBA and .234 ISO split since the beginning of 2016, putting him in elite company. That wOBA and his spot high in the Dodgers' order help to give him a high, cash-game floor.
Also Consider: Aledmys Diaz - SS, at MIL ($2,800)
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Charlie Blackmon - OF, vs SFG ($4,300)
Despite the fact that he faces a pretty strong pitcher, nothing will keep me from rostering Blackmon in this situation. He offers incredibly high upside as he holds the platoon advantage in this matchup, hits in the leadoff spot for a team projected to score more than five runs, and gives us really quality Coors Field exposure. That platoon advantage? How about a .409 wOBA and .283 ISO. That will play!
Nelson Cruz - OF, at OAK ($3,900)
I wouldn't consider Cruz to be cash-game safe tonight, but I'm all aboard in tournament formats. While the park - a favorable one for pitchers - may scare some away, Cruz is in a pretty opportune spot this evening. He possesses excellent splits, particularly in the power department (.366 ISO, .667 slugging percentage) and faces a pitcher who has had a real difficult time keeping the ball in the yard last season.
Also Consider: Josh Reddick - OF, at TB ($2,900)
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