DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Arnold Palmer Invitational With Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, and More Golf Advice (2024)

March 6, 2024

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• Arnold Palmer Invitational

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 69
Cut: Top 50 & Ties + 10 or Less Off Lead
Top 20 Entrants: 18

Last Five Winners Of The Arnold Palmer Invitational

Expected Cut-Line 

No real expectation because of new rules

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

7,466 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

Bay Hill is an awkward course that has been known to present a unique dispersion of scoring throughout different iterations of the contest. You don't have to look any further than the last four years, where approach, around-the-green, and off-the-tee totals have taken turns holding most of the precedence for success.

That return sometimes makes the handicapping process more straightforward when statistics like putting won't be as impactful to scoring. However, the lack of statistical predictability makes this contest a nightmare for most golf pundits to try and run numbers for because of the overall uncertainty yearly.

I think we can look at some of the primary model outputs, such as the fact that we get a long course over 7,400 yards that typically presents difficult scoring conditions and lightning-fast Bermuda greens, to understand that the 85 sand traps and nine holes with water will only enhance the already brutal three-inch rough. Still, we have to take a stand somewhere that doesn't only run rudimentary results to mimic the course.

I noticed that almost all your scoring has to come on the four par-fives and shorter par-fours. We get 33.8% to 56.3% birdie or better percentage at the four par-fives, with only two other holes yielding a birdie rate over 17.5% when looking into par-four 10th and par-four 13th.

Overall, an all-around game will go a long way for those trying to succeed, but that answer always limits some metrics since anyone who excels in one of the three main strokes gained categories can triumph over the venue. I believe a standard tee-to-green rate should be measured in your model this week, but it is worth noting that controlling your ball out of these lies can be nearly impossible at times because of the dense nature of the grass. Most approaches will lack the apex and spin needed to hold these fiery greens, which adds to the 6.0% increase that the field experiences from 200+ yards over a standard track on tour.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (30%)

Strokes Gained Total - Long Rough (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Long/Difficult Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Fast Bermuda (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Wind (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Ball Striking (10%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I do expect Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) to be wildly popular because of his ball-striking acumen and how Bay Hill neutralizes some of the putting returns. However, I can't find a reason not to play him from a data retrieval standpoint.

Scheffler placed first in my model for weighted tee-to-green, ball striking and weighted proximity, which doesn't even get into the tournament-leading output of grading inside the top 10 of all seven categories I ran this week. There is one other golfer who delivered that return that we will get to shortly, but Scheffler's upside and safety can't be matched numerically by anyone in this field.

While I am unequivocally in on Scheffler, I will get different down low to make the builds unique. I don't see a reason for going with the chalk route of Scheffler/Min Woo Lee in large-field GPPs.

Currently In: Scottie Scheffler

Playing: Rory McIlroy

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I will also play a little Rory McIlroy up top, but I found myself wanting the majority of my exposure to land with Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland, Aberg and Morikawa from this $9,000+ section.

Hovland ($9,900) was the additional name who posted all seven categories inside the top 10, which increased his profile when we started to dive into his high-end returns for long courses with thick rough.

Aberg ($9,500) added a similar profile of a golfer who saw increased weighted scoring and tee-to-green retrievals in those areas. Ranked first in my model for weighted total driving and second for weighted tee-to-green play, the Hovland/Aberg group was the 1A/1B in the $9,000 range.

And then, Morikawa ($9,000) graded as the best iron player in this field when weighing the data for Bay Hill. That included additional top-five marks for ball striking, weighted scoring, and expected tee-to-green. I normally don't find myself interested in Morikawa for DFS or betting, but it felt like a spot where he was too cheap and needed to be considered for his upside. .

Currently In: Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Unfortunately, I think most of the ownership comes from the first four options in this range. That said, Will Zalatoris ($8,900), Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800), Cameron Young ($8,700) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600) would be the four that interest me when making builds.

I am fine ignoring the rest of the group (outside of a potentially low-owned Jason Day).

We can get into more conversation about this section on this week's Bettor Golf Podcast.

Currently In: Will Zaltoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Playing: Jason Day

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Currently In: Jake Knapp, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Byeong Hun An, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger

Those are the seven names that are currently the favorites to land inside of my player pool. As always, ownership and things of that nature will adjust some of the takes over the next 48 hours.

$6,000 Options To Consider

I have my concerns with the bottom of this board when we dip into the $6,000 range.

As I mentioned at the start, gamers are going to want to stack Scottie Scheffler/Min Woo Lee because of the outright price Lee has on Monday afternoon. I don't necessarily live under the same belief since my model prefers fading Lee in head-to-head matchups rather than backing him. However, the one player I found myself most interested in from a game theory perspective was Emiliano Grillo.

Grillo has been posting quality results throughout all of 2024 so far, including four top-22 finishes from the Sony to the WM Phoenix Open. If the expected growth continues with his weighted tee-to-green performance, we could get similar results at his $6,900 price.

We will have to find an option or two more from this range to allow more aggression up top, but there are a handful of intriguing spots to consider when we dive into the Adam Schenk's of the world.

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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