X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Arnold Palmer Invitational With Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, and More Golf Advice (2024)

DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks daily fantasy golf

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Arnold Palmer Invitational. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Arnold Palmer Invitational

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

  • A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
  • Arnold Palmer Invitational

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

  • Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
  • All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
  • Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
  • Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
  • Units: +327.863 Units
  • All Totals Are Entering 2024
  • Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

  • Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

First-Round Leader Article

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

  • 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
  • Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

  • We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

  • Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.

TeeOffSports membership

 

Field

Field Size: 69
Cut: Top 50 & Ties + 10 or Less Off Lead
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners Of The Arnold Palmer Invitational

2023 Kurt Kitayama -9
2022 Scottie Scheffler -5
2021 Bryson DeChambeau -11
2020 Tyrrell Hatton -4
2019 Francesco Molinari -12

 

Expected Cut-Line 

No real expectation because of new rules

2023 3
2022 4
2021 3
2020 4
2019 2

 

Bay Hill Club & Lodge

7,466 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda

Bay Hill is an awkward course that has been known to present a unique dispersion of scoring throughout different iterations of the contest. You don't have to look any further than the last four years, where approach, around-the-green, and off-the-tee totals have taken turns holding most of the precedence for success.

That return sometimes makes the handicapping process more straightforward when statistics like putting won't be as impactful to scoring. However, the lack of statistical predictability makes this contest a nightmare for most golf pundits to try and run numbers for because of the overall uncertainty yearly.

I think we can look at some of the primary model outputs, such as the fact that we get a long course over 7,400 yards that typically presents difficult scoring conditions and lightning-fast Bermuda greens, to understand that the 85 sand traps and nine holes with water will only enhance the already brutal three-inch rough. Still, we have to take a stand somewhere that doesn't only run rudimentary results to mimic the course.

I noticed that almost all your scoring has to come on the four par-fives and shorter par-fours. We get 33.8% to 56.3% birdie or better percentage at the four par-fives, with only two other holes yielding a birdie rate over 17.5% when looking into par-four 10th and par-four 13th.

Overall, an all-around game will go a long way for those trying to succeed, but that answer always limits some metrics since anyone who excels in one of the three main strokes gained categories can triumph over the venue. I believe a standard tee-to-green rate should be measured in your model this week, but it is worth noting that controlling your ball out of these lies can be nearly impossible at times because of the dense nature of the grass. Most approaches will lack the apex and spin needed to hold these fiery greens, which adds to the 6.0% increase that the field experiences from 200+ yards over a standard track on tour.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat Bay Hill PGA Average
Driving Distance 277 283
Driving Accuracy 64% 61%
GIR Percentage 60% 65%
Scrambling Percentage 57% 57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round 0.56 0.55

 

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Total - Long Rough (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total - Long/Difficult Courses (10%)


Strokes Gained Total - Fast Bermuda (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total: Wind (10%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

 

Ball Striking (10%)

 

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright Odds Unit Risk Potential Win
Scottie Scheffler 7 0.72 5.04

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I do expect Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) to be wildly popular because of his ball-striking acumen and how Bay Hill neutralizes some of the putting returns. However, I can't find a reason not to play him from a data retrieval standpoint.

Scheffler placed first in my model for weighted tee-to-green, ball striking and weighted proximity, which doesn't even get into the tournament-leading output of grading inside the top 10 of all seven categories I ran this week. There is one other golfer who delivered that return that we will get to shortly, but Scheffler's upside and safety can't be matched numerically by anyone in this field.

While I am unequivocally in on Scheffler, I will get different down low to make the builds unique. I don't see a reason for going with the chalk route of Scheffler/Min Woo Lee in large-field GPPs.

Currently In: Scottie Scheffler

Playing: Rory McIlroy

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

I will also play a little Rory McIlroy up top, but I found myself wanting the majority of my exposure to land with Scheffler, McIlroy, Hovland, Aberg and Morikawa from this $9,000+ section.

Hovland ($9,900) was the additional name who posted all seven categories inside the top 10, which increased his profile when we started to dive into his high-end returns for long courses with thick rough.

Aberg ($9,500) added a similar profile of a golfer who saw increased weighted scoring and tee-to-green retrievals in those areas. Ranked first in my model for weighted total driving and second for weighted tee-to-green play, the Hovland/Aberg group was the 1A/1B in the $9,000 range.

And then, Morikawa ($9,000) graded as the best iron player in this field when weighing the data for Bay Hill. That included additional top-five marks for ball striking, weighted scoring, and expected tee-to-green. I normally don't find myself interested in Morikawa for DFS or betting, but it felt like a spot where he was too cheap and needed to be considered for his upside. .

Currently In: Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Unfortunately, I think most of the ownership comes from the first four options in this range. That said, Will Zalatoris ($8,900), Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800), Cameron Young ($8,700) and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,600) would be the four that interest me when making builds.

I am fine ignoring the rest of the group (outside of a potentially low-owned Jason Day).

We can get into more conversation about this section on this week's Bettor Golf Podcast.

Currently In: Will Zaltoris, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick

Playing: Jason Day

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

Currently In: Jake Knapp, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Byeong Hun An, Nicolai Hojgaard, Stephan Jaeger

Those are the seven names that are currently the favorites to land inside of my player pool. As always, ownership and things of that nature will adjust some of the takes over the next 48 hours.

 

$6,000 Options To Consider

I have my concerns with the bottom of this board when we dip into the $6,000 range.

As I mentioned at the start, gamers are going to want to stack Scottie Scheffler/Min Woo Lee because of the outright price Lee has on Monday afternoon. I don't necessarily live under the same belief since my model prefers fading Lee in head-to-head matchups rather than backing him. However, the one player I found myself most interested in from a game theory perspective was Emiliano Grillo.

Grillo has been posting quality results throughout all of 2024 so far, including four top-22 finishes from the Sony to the WM Phoenix Open. If the expected growth continues with his weighted tee-to-green performance, we could get similar results at his $6,900 price.

We will have to find an option or two more from this range to allow more aggression up top, but there are a handful of intriguing spots to consider when we dive into the Adam Schenk's of the world.

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF