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CJ Cup - Showdown Round 2 (Premium Content)

Spencer Aguiar digs into the first round of the CJ Cup, providing his DFS model to try and locate potential value as we enter day two.

All other PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.

I am excited to announce that I will be providing a premium spreadsheet that can be accessed through the link below. Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament - all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this piece is to provide an area where you can not only research the daily proceedings for DFS Showdown strategy but also potentially find outright additions or daily head-to-head wagers to add to your card after round 1.

I have included some advanced metrics that should pinpoint golfers that have underachieved or overachieved on a particular day and have added a feature that allows you to go back in and weigh your pre-tournament research. For the sake of how the sheet is set up behind the paywall, you will have to readjust your rankings once again in tab number 1 if you would like to incorporate that particular feature back into your daily research.

 

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup

Check out Spencer's individual round sheets. Thursday's results will be added to round 1. Friday to round 2 and Saturday to round 3. All previous rounds are included in things you can research on the current day of action, which should help make all statistics easy to find! 

 

Top-15 Players OTT+APP During Day 1

 

Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Good Ball-Striking, Bad Putting)

 

Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Bad Ball-Striking, Good Putting)

 

Biggest Baseline Putting Difference

 

Golfers In The Top-40 Of My Model That Either Underachieved Ball-Striking Or Didn't Overachieve By More than Seven Spots

Rank Player Score Score Rank Ball-Strike Ball-Strike Rank Differential Baseline Putting Difference
1 Rory McIlroy -5 3 3.23 5 -2 0.20
2 Scottie Scheffler 0 44 2.16 15 29 1.83
3 Jon Rahm -2 26 1.82 19 7 1.32
4 Tom Kim -5 3 2.81 8 -5 0.12
5 Shane Lowry -3 15 2.93 7 8 1.27
8 Aaron Wise -5 3 5.84 1 2 0.80
9 Sam Burns -1 37 0.36 36 1 -1.46
10 Matthew Fitzpatrick -1 37 0.23 38 -1 0.72
11 Cameron Davis -5 3 3.83 3 0 -1.59
12 Cameron Young 2 61 1.47 23 38 2.29
13 Emiliano Grillo 0 44 2.16 15 29 2.06
15 Max Homa 1 56 -1.46 62 -6 0.33
16 Si Woo Kim -4 9 2.77 9 0 -0.36
18 Keegan Bradley 0 44 1.22 26 18 -0.05
19 Jordan Spieth 4 73 -3.16 72 1 1.99
20 Tom Hoge -3 15 2.32 14 1 -0.77
20 Tommy Fleetwood 2 61 -0.43 44 17 2.18
25 Gary Woodland -6 1 4.70 2 -1 -1.72
26 Tyrrell Hatton -4 9 2.58 12 -3 -0.50
27 Billy Horschel -3 15 1.47 21 -6 1.01
28 Mito Pereira 0 44 1.85 18 26 0.14
29 Rickie Fowler 3 67 0.65 30 37 4.56
30 S.H. Kim 2 61 -2.23 67 -6 1.37
31 Trey Mullinax -6 1 3.35 4 -3 -1.78
33 Webb Simpson 0 44 1.47 21 23 -0.51
34 Sebastián Muñoz -3 15 2.05 17 -2 0.57
36 Byeong Hun An 2 61 -0.55 47 14 1.84
37 Scott Stallings 1 56 -1.13 53 3 1.58
39 Danny Willett -2 26 1.39 24 2 -1.62

 

Outright

I will take two shots on Scottie Scheffler 40/1 and Shane Lowry 33/1. Both of those will be to win roughly five units.

Scottie Scheffler (40/1) 0.125 to win 5
Shane Lowry (33/1) 0.16 to win 5.28

That is a little more exposure than I was hoping to have this event for the outright card, but this leaderboard is wide-open after day one.

 

Round 2 H2H Bet

Corey Conners -110 over Andrew Putnam (Bet365)

This price can be found at yesterday's total of -120 if you only have DraftKings, but I don't see any reason we wouldn't go back to this wager. Putnam managed to slip six spots in my model after posting a two-under result that placed him 26th on the leaderboard, and while Conners took a steady decline himself because of his poor ball-striking marks, my model believes a push would have been the fair outcome over the loss that we eventually did take. 

I had -150 being the fair total yesterday. We are down to -140 after Conners' issues, but let's not ignore the 60th-place output from the American with his driver and irons. It took him gaining 2.64 shots with the short game for us to lose on Thursday, and as I alluded to yesterday, the length will continue to be a problem for him at Congaree. 

Safety:
Conners - 24th
Putnam - 57th

Si Woo Kim -105 over Jason Day (BetOnline)

It pains me to do this, but Jason Day regressed from an analytical perspective on Thursday. The approach metrics finished 60th in this field out of 78 players, and while the driving was respectable, ranking 29th, he was the 11th biggest overachiever on the round when comparing his finish to his ball-striking and putting output.

I will provide the entire top 15 overachievers in the section below

Safety:
Si Woo - 16th
Day - 55th

 

  Win More With RotoBaller

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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks


More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

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To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
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Makes Early Exit
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Removed Early On Friday
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Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
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Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
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Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
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Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
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Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
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Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
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Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
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Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
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Exits Early Thursday
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Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

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Adam Svensson

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Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
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Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
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Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
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Carson Young

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