RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into the first round of the CJ Cup, providing his DFS model to try and locate potential value as we enter day two.
All other PGA Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
I am excited to announce that I will be providing a premium spreadsheet that can be accessed through the link below. Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament - all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this piece is to provide an area where you can not only research the daily proceedings for DFS Showdown strategy but also potentially find outright additions or daily head-to-head wagers to add to your card after round 1.
I have included some advanced metrics that should pinpoint golfers that have underachieved or overachieved on a particular day and have added a feature that allows you to go back in and weigh your pre-tournament research. For the sake of how the sheet is set up behind the paywall, you will have to readjust your rankings once again in tab number 1 if you would like to incorporate that particular feature back into your daily research.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - CJ Cup
Top-15 Players OTT+APP During Day 1
Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Good Ball-Striking, Bad Putting)
Top-15 Players OTT+APP Differentials (Bad Ball-Striking, Good Putting)
Biggest Baseline Putting Difference
Golfers In The Top-40 Of My Model That Either Underachieved Ball-Striking Or Didn't Overachieve By More than Seven Spots
| Rank | Player | Score | Score Rank | Ball-Strike | Ball-Strike Rank | Differential | Baseline Putting Difference |
| 1 | Rory McIlroy | -5 | 3 | 3.23 | 5 | -2 | 0.20 |
| 2 | Scottie Scheffler | 0 | 44 | 2.16 | 15 | 29 | 1.83 |
| 3 | Jon Rahm | -2 | 26 | 1.82 | 19 | 7 | 1.32 |
| 4 | Tom Kim | -5 | 3 | 2.81 | 8 | -5 | 0.12 |
| 5 | Shane Lowry | -3 | 15 | 2.93 | 7 | 8 | 1.27 |
| 8 | Aaron Wise | -5 | 3 | 5.84 | 1 | 2 | 0.80 |
| 9 | Sam Burns | -1 | 37 | 0.36 | 36 | 1 | -1.46 |
| 10 | Matthew Fitzpatrick | -1 | 37 | 0.23 | 38 | -1 | 0.72 |
| 11 | Cameron Davis | -5 | 3 | 3.83 | 3 | 0 | -1.59 |
| 12 | Cameron Young | 2 | 61 | 1.47 | 23 | 38 | 2.29 |
| 13 | Emiliano Grillo | 0 | 44 | 2.16 | 15 | 29 | 2.06 |
| 15 | Max Homa | 1 | 56 | -1.46 | 62 | -6 | 0.33 |
| 16 | Si Woo Kim | -4 | 9 | 2.77 | 9 | 0 | -0.36 |
| 18 | Keegan Bradley | 0 | 44 | 1.22 | 26 | 18 | -0.05 |
| 19 | Jordan Spieth | 4 | 73 | -3.16 | 72 | 1 | 1.99 |
| 20 | Tom Hoge | -3 | 15 | 2.32 | 14 | 1 | -0.77 |
| 20 | Tommy Fleetwood | 2 | 61 | -0.43 | 44 | 17 | 2.18 |
| 25 | Gary Woodland | -6 | 1 | 4.70 | 2 | -1 | -1.72 |
| 26 | Tyrrell Hatton | -4 | 9 | 2.58 | 12 | -3 | -0.50 |
| 27 | Billy Horschel | -3 | 15 | 1.47 | 21 | -6 | 1.01 |
| 28 | Mito Pereira | 0 | 44 | 1.85 | 18 | 26 | 0.14 |
| 29 | Rickie Fowler | 3 | 67 | 0.65 | 30 | 37 | 4.56 |
| 30 | S.H. Kim | 2 | 61 | -2.23 | 67 | -6 | 1.37 |
| 31 | Trey Mullinax | -6 | 1 | 3.35 | 4 | -3 | -1.78 |
| 33 | Webb Simpson | 0 | 44 | 1.47 | 21 | 23 | -0.51 |
| 34 | Sebastián Muñoz | -3 | 15 | 2.05 | 17 | -2 | 0.57 |
| 36 | Byeong Hun An | 2 | 61 | -0.55 | 47 | 14 | 1.84 |
| 37 | Scott Stallings | 1 | 56 | -1.13 | 53 | 3 | 1.58 |
| 39 | Danny Willett | -2 | 26 | 1.39 | 24 | 2 | -1.62 |
Outright
I will take two shots on Scottie Scheffler 40/1 and Shane Lowry 33/1. Both of those will be to win roughly five units.
Scottie Scheffler (40/1) 0.125 to win 5
Shane Lowry (33/1) 0.16 to win 5.28
That is a little more exposure than I was hoping to have this event for the outright card, but this leaderboard is wide-open after day one.
Round 2 H2H Bet
Corey Conners -110 over Andrew Putnam (Bet365)
This price can be found at yesterday's total of -120 if you only have DraftKings, but I don't see any reason we wouldn't go back to this wager. Putnam managed to slip six spots in my model after posting a two-under result that placed him 26th on the leaderboard, and while Conners took a steady decline himself because of his poor ball-striking marks, my model believes a push would have been the fair outcome over the loss that we eventually did take.
I had -150 being the fair total yesterday. We are down to -140 after Conners' issues, but let's not ignore the 60th-place output from the American with his driver and irons. It took him gaining 2.64 shots with the short game for us to lose on Thursday, and as I alluded to yesterday, the length will continue to be a problem for him at Congaree.
Safety:
Conners - 24th
Putnam - 57th
Si Woo Kim -105 over Jason Day (BetOnline)
It pains me to do this, but Jason Day regressed from an analytical perspective on Thursday. The approach metrics finished 60th in this field out of 78 players, and while the driving was respectable, ranking 29th, he was the 11th biggest overachiever on the round when comparing his finish to his ball-striking and putting output.
I will provide the entire top 15 overachievers in the section below
Safety:
Si Woo - 16th
Day - 55th
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