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It's postseason DFS, RotoBallers! The MLB playoffs are underway, so I'm looking forward to sifting through one of the last decently-sized baseball slates we'll get in 2023. Let's break down my favorite plays from today!
With the remaining teams whittled down to only 12, we're left with a four-game Wild Card slate. The playoff rosters have been tightened, meaning the pitching is tough, and your lineup decisions will be tougher. There will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 10/4/2023 and the slate locking at 3:08 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. ARI ($9,200 DK, $10,600 FD)
With teams putting their best foot forward for the playoffs, the margin between pitching options is particularly thin. All things considered, Freddy Peralta is my favorite arm on this slate. Through 30 starts, he owns an impressive 3.33 xERA and 3.42 xFIP. The success includes a .284 xwOBA, .214 xBA, .359 xSLG, and an 87.6 MPH average exit velocity. Most notably, Peralta strikes out hitters at a spectacular 30.9% rate, coupled with a 33.6% chase rate. After the Brewers dropped Game 1, his leash may be short if he finds himself in trouble. Still, I believe Peralta is best positioned for success with his matchup today.
Though the Diamondbacks managed to scrape together a postseason berth, they struggled mightily down the stretch of the regular season. Across the last 28 games, Arizona posted a weak 4.2 runs per game. That includes a horrible 80 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .655 OPS and .291 wOBA. The Diamondbacks managed to tag Corbin Burnes for three home runs yesterday, but I envision Peralta and the Brewers bouncing back in this one.
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. MIA ($8,000 DK, $8,700 FD)
Don't get too hung up on Nola's mediocre-looking 4.46 ERA this season. The advanced stats suggest he's pitched much better than that, posting a strong 3.74 xERA and 3.63 xFIP across 32 outings. Nola wasn't able to fully replicate his 2022 dominance, but his success this year included a 25.5% strikeout rate, 34.7% whiff rate, and a .300 xwOBA. I don't think he's the second-best pitcher on this slate, but I do believe Nola will have a relatively long leash. The Phillies already took Game 1 of the series, giving them an added layer of comfort today. If Nola gets rolling, a seven-plus inning appearance is well within the range of outcomes.
September represented Miami's best offensive month of the season, so they entered the postseason with momentum. Still, when looking at the aggregate, the Marlins had underwhelming hitting results this season. They scored 4.1 runs per game overall, including a weak 91 wRC+, .711 OPS, and .308 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. Miami's lineup can be difficult to strike out, which limits Nola's ceiling somewhat but don't be surprised if he pitches deep in this game.
Also consider: Zach Eflin
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Trea Turner – SS, PHI vs. Braxton Garrett ($6,000 DK, $3,700 FD)
Trea Turner posted a .266/.320/.459 slash line with 26 home runs and 30 stolen bases this season. The overall marks are slightly underwhelming, but Turner was one of baseball's most productive hitters in the second half. He sported a .901 OPS with 16 home runs and a 140 wRC+ across 67 games since the All-Star break. Turner also owns a .496 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers for his career.
Trea Turner swiped 2 bags tonight.
That’s 32 for 32 since Opening Day.
His 30 SB in the regular season was the most without getting caught in MLB history. pic.twitter.com/baWDy2Zuaf
— StatMuse MLB (@statmusemlb) October 4, 2023
Braxton Garrett is a quality pitcher, but he is probably the weakest arm on this slate. His respectable 3.66 ERA is undermined by an ugly 4.51 xERA. The due regression is also underscored by a .272 xBA, 45.1% hard-hit rate, 90.2 MPH average exit velocity, and .437 xSLG. Right-handed hitters are slugging .448 against Garrett, part of a .455 career mark.
Yandy Diaz – 1B, TB vs. Nathan Eovaldi ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
Yandy Diaz had a phenomenal season at the plate, slashing .330/.410/.522 with 22 home runs and a 164 wRC+. He crushed the ball to the tune of a .479 xSLG, 54% hard-hit rate, 93.4 MPH average exit velocity, and .301 xBA. The results have been fantastic when Diaz puts the bat on the ball, and he only strikes out at a 15.7% rate.
Following a strong start to the season, Nathan Eovaldi stumbled in the latter part of the season, finishing overall with a 3.99 xERA and 3.96 xFIP. Although his impressive groundball 51.4% groundball rate limits home run potential, Eovaldi did surrender a 43.1% hard-hit rate. He also allowed a .433 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters.
Cavan Biggio – 1B/2B, TOR vs. Sonny Gray ($2,800 DK, $2,500 FD)
The player pricing on this slate is pretty airtight, so good value bats are hard to come by. Cavan Biggio stands out as a quality bat at his price, with multi-positional eligibility as a bonus. He posted a strong .765 OPS in the second half this season, including a .272 batting average and a 124 wRC+. Additionally, Biggio produced multi-hit performances in three of his last five games played.
Sonny Gray isn't a pitcher I usually like to target against. That said, it's justified on this short slate and with Biggio's low price. Across 32 starts, Gray surrendered 3.66 xERA alongside a middling 39.2% hard-hit rate, 89.1 MPH average exit velocity, .243 xBA, and .364 xSLG. It's hard for hitters to take Gray deep, but he's a lot shakier than his 2.79 ERA suggests.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Yelich – OF, MIL vs. Zac Gallen ($4,900 DK, $4,000 FD)
This was Christian Yelich's best offensive season since 2019. He posted a .278/.370/.447 with 19 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 122 wRC+. The success includes a 50.1% hard-hit rate, 91.7 MPH average exit velocity, .450 xSLG, .277 xBA, and a .358 xwOBA.
Zac Gallen was unable to recapture the magic of his 2022 campaign. Over 34 starts, he posted a 4.16 xERA and 3.49 xFIP. That includes surrendering a generous 46.2% hard-hit rate, 91.5 MPH average exit velocity, and a 46.2% hard-hit rate. Gallen is more vulnerable than his reputation lets on.
Max Kepler – OF, MIN vs. Jose Berrios ($4,300 DK, $3,100 FD)
Max Kepler emerged as a core contributor in the Twins' lineup this season, producing a .260/.332/.484 slash line with 24 home runs and a 124 wRC+. His advanced numbers are even more impressive, including a .499 xSLG, 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, 47.9% hard-hit rate, 12.2% barrel rate, and .363 xwOBA.
Max Kepler - Minnesota Twins (24) pic.twitter.com/uCBwU7wXCI
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) October 1, 2023
Across 32 starts this season, Jose Berrios posted a 3.65 ERA, but the surface numbers are deceiving. Berrios owns a 4.51 xERA and 4.01 xFIP. He surrendered a .437 xSLG, 8.6% barrel rate, and .259 xBA. Left-handed hitters are particularly tough on Berrios, slugging .450 against southpaws.
Jesus Sanchez – OF, MIA vs. Aaron Nola ($3,100 DK, $2,600 FD)
Jesus Sanchez does carry pinch-hit risk, but there are not many value bats to choose from, so I think he's worth consideration. His .253/.327/.450 slash line isn't terribly impressive, but Sanchez's underlying numbers are eye-opening. He produced a .476 xSLG, 12.2% barrel rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, 90.4 MPH average exit velocity, and a .354 xwOBA.
Above, I outlined why you should roster Aaron Nola. If he's not in your lineup, you should definitely consider Marlins' bats. Nola surrendered 32 home runs and a .407 xSLG this season. Left-handed hitters slugged .444 against him.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Braxton Garrett
Favorite Plays: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm
Minnesota Twins vs. Jose Berrios
Favorite Plays: Max Kepler, Royce Lewis, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien
Also Consider: Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers
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