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Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN College Pick'em for Week 6 of the 2024 NCAA college football season. Which upsets have the best chance of happening?
We only had 45 total points this week with the Appalachian State game in Boone, North Carolina washing out. The remnants of Hurricane Helene dumped feet of rain in the Appalachian Mountains of eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina causing that game to be cancelled with no makeup date announced. In the wake of the devastation across Western North Carolina, the football game seems rather trivial. We are hoping for the best for the people in that region.
After no perfect weeks for the first month of the season in the RotoBaller Readers Group, we had three this week. Congratulations to Rajika Brown, wpepper71, and Clemson Fan for getting all nine picks right. Mallen8707, bullgator, and ertlt only missed the one-point pick. 11 more entries had at least 40 points this week, so it was a strong week overall for the group. mr_richard becomes the first two-week leader this year with 196 points. wpepper71 and ertlt moved into a tie for second with 190 points, so there is a little separation at the top.
IUBB1! is one point behind. big papi10 rounds out the top five with 187 points. 50Centi is three points back in sixth place. EAGLESYANKEES77, bullgator, lbockenek, keepingthelittlehumansalive, and dlobo4 round out the top 10 all separated by one point. The first month of the season has been a good one with 20 entries within 30 points of the top.
College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If you also want to play the spread version, you can join that group here.
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you will know all of my picks each week.
(1) Missouri over Texas A&M
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko says QB Conner Weigman (shoulder) will be a game-time decision again this Saturday vs. Missouri.
— Carter Karels (@CarterKarels) September 30, 2024
The Aggies are playing well whether it's Marcel Reed or Conner Weigman taking snaps. At this point, the Aggies aren't saying anything because they want Missouri to prepare for both QBs, therefore "wasting" practice time when one likely won't play in the game.
This kind of thing has been going on for years, but with the rise of NCAA DFS and gambling, there are far more people complaining. Last week we were fortunate enough to see Weigman on the field in street clothes for warmups. We may not get that kind of warning this week.
I'm not putting a lot of stock into the public pick percentages on this one since it will likely change once we have confirmed the status of Weigman. For me, it doesn't matter. I like Missouri either way.
(2) Duke over Georgia Tech
The Bees struggled with Syracuse and Louisville, but there is a good chance that both of those teams are better than Duke. Adding to that the fact that the game is in Atlanta, and you can see why Vegas is heavy (-280) on Tech.
Surprisingly, the public isn't as convinced (53%). I like Duke's defense enough to contain Tech and New Mexico State transfer Star Thomas is becoming his namesake for the Blue Devils. Maalik Murphy has shown growth over the last couple of games. Duke is capable of winning this, even on the road.
(3) Nebraska over Rutgers
Athan Kaliakmanis is no stranger to Nebraska. He has beaten them in each of the last two seasons at Minnesota. Vegas (-275) and the public (86%) are overwhelmingly on Big Red in Lincoln, but I'm not so sure. Rutgers is the kind of team that gives Nebraska problems.
Greg Schiano has built another strong team at Rutgers and it started with defense. The same is true this year. Nebraska's run defense is strong, but Devin Mockobee had a solid game last week and Kyle Monangai is better than Mockobee. So is his offensive line. If Kaliakmanis can play mistake-free football, something he has done well this year, Rutgers could win this game.
I'll still take Nebraska at home, but I am nervous about it. Nervous enough to lower the confidence points. Rutgers is very similar to the Illinois team that beat Nebraska in Lincoln a couple of Fridays ago.
(4) Michigan over Washington
Yeah, the Michigan offense is a work in progress, but the defense isn't. Washington's offense isn't the model of consistency either. Their rush defense has been suspect and Michigan's run game is flourishing with Kalel Mullings. Vegas is on Washington (-145), but the public is overwhelmingly with Michigan (84%) to beat Washington for the second time in 10 months.
Week 3: 15 car., 153 yds, 2 TD
Week 4: 17 car., 159 yds, 2 TD
Week 5: 24 car., 111 yds, 2 TDKalel Mullings just continues to pick up big yards and find the end zone ?#B1GFootball x @UMichFootball pic.twitter.com/BVESAyrxuk
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 28, 2024
This would normally be a time when I would try to pick up points by bucking the public and going with Vegas, but I just watched Mullings carve up a solid Minnesota defense. I don't see the upset happening. Look at how easily Washington State ran on the Huskies in a rivalry game that was basically on the road (Lumen Field).
(5) Central Florida over Florida
This is the game that UCF has been waiting for. Their chance to establish dominance in the state. Florida State, Miami, and Florida don't take invitations to play this team. There's a reason for that. UCF was consistently one of the best Group of Five programs and held their own in the Big 12 (14) last year.
This Florida team might be worse than the Florida team that UCF beat in the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl. R.J. Harvey was on that 2021 UCF team but he missed the season with a torn ACL. Harvey will look to have his fun against Florida here. The Gators have allowed 550 rushing yards over the last two games to Texas A&M and Mississippi State. Neither of them has a back like Harvey.
RJ Harvey is electric ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/SnvQv7njXq— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) September 28, 2024
(6) Virginia over Boston College
BC back to work this morning and everyone’s fears can be put to rest.
Thomas Castellanos is here and participating @newftbj @BCEagleAction @Rivals pic.twitter.com/fs2yJIwLyc
— Kevin J. Stone (@kstone06) October 1, 2024
The news about Thomas Castellanos is the culprit in the public going heavy (74%) on BC despite being a dog in the desert. I'm choosing this opportunity to gain points. This game is in Charlottesville and Virginia is a better version of the Michigan State team that nearly toppled the Eagles. Xavier Brown is the explosive piece in the running game that the Wahoos have been missing.
Xavier Brown has crazy potential.
Most talented back Virginia has. pic.twitter.com/MQCjSFHx7v
— Zach Carey (@Zach_Carey_) September 21, 2024
(7) Oklahoma State over West Virginia
This one is a candidate to be moved down. I'm not convinced that the Pokes are significantly better than West Virginia. Both have suffered from inefficient and inconsistent quarterback play to the point where their running backs don't have room to operate. I like Oklahoma State at home because they have played a tougher schedule, but stay tuned. The more I dig into it, the less I like having this many confidence points on it.
(8) Pittsburgh over North Carolina
The Carolina defense looked much better against Duke, but they still allowed nearly 400 yards of total offense. Duke just didn't have the points to go with it. The Tar Heels aren't big dogs in Vegas, but I think the balanced offense of Pitt is going to spell trouble for the Heels.
However, if you're trying to steal points, the public is overwhelmingly behind Pitt (90%). I'm a little surprised since the Vegas moneyline is only at -150. ESPN's FPI gives heavy weight to the home team and Vegas usually follows suit. North Carolina looked better last game, but that's hardly a ringing endorsement. As you can see by my placement of this, I feel Pitt is a much better team.
(9) Arizona over Texas Tech
The luster wore off of Arizona after they got smacked on a Friday night in the Little Apple. This team is better at home. I don't know what beating a Utah team without Cameron Rising is worth nowadays, but I do respect a team that can put up 23 points on that defense in Salt Lake City. Texas Tech's only road game was not a good one for them as they got smoked in Pullman.
(10) Miami (FL) over California
Going to the West Coast for a night game may not be easy for a team from the East, but Cam Ward played in the Pac-12 (RIP) for a couple of years. He can handle this better than most.
ABSOLUTELY UNREAL SEQUENCE FROM CAM WARD ? pic.twitter.com/FyIy5cPnwJ
— ESPN (@espn) September 28, 2024
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