You've Got a Playoff Bye, Now What?

December 9, 2020

Pierre Camus advises fantasy football managers with a bye week in the playoffs on how to effectively use the waiver wire and plan ahead to gain an advantage in the postseason.

Whether you were fortunate enough to get Dalvin Cook in the first round, savvy enough to grab Travis Kelce before a second RB, avoided landmines like Joe Mixon and Odell Beckham Jr. early on, or played the waiver wire correctly, your team has dominated all year and led you to a top seed. While the suckers who scraped their way into the playoffs at the last minute get to slug it out in the Wild Card round, you can actually kick back and watch the games on Sunday (and Monday and Thursday and now every other Tuesday) without breaking a sweat. You've got yourself a first-round bye.

Does that mean you rest on your laurels and consider it a fantasy bye week? Hell no! That's not what got you here in the first place and it's not how RotoBallers roll. Use this week to give yourself an even bigger edge and move closer to the real prize - that championship trophy.

Below are some pointed suggestions on how to improve your chances of winning throughout the playoffs even when you don't have anything to play for in Week 14.

Play the Waiver Wire

You gotta be in it to win it. That advice doesn't just apply to the lotto, it also goes for fantasy leagues at all times. Yes, even in a bye week.

As a top seed, you may not have holes to fill on your roster. If there are truly no players you would consider dropping for anything available on waivers, you are in a great spot and may not need this advice. However, things are not always as they appear.

Some heavily-rostered players may be sitting on fantasy rosters all season but not necessarily contributing. Of those players, they may be occasional streamers or bye-week fillers but not someone you'd consider rolling out in a must-win postseason matchup for Week 15 or 16.

For example, Giovani Bernard is the RB1 in Cincinnati and was a must-add once Joe Mixon went on IR. Bernard started out well, totaling 174 scrimmage yards with three touchdowns in the first two games as featured back. Since then, he has done absolutely nothing to warrant rostering in fantasy lineups, much less starting. Since the Week 9 bye, Bernard is averaging 27.5 rushing yards and 17.5 receiving yards per game and hasn't scored a single touchdown in four straight contests. He's only been above replacement-level for two weeks out of the entire season.

image taken from RotoViz

To be clear, this descent began even when Joe Burrow was still the starting QB for the first two of those games. Now that Cincinnati is bouncing back and forth between two clearly inferior options, the entire offense is completely avoidable. Bernard doesn't belong on a championship roster and he is merely taking up space.

Players that don't need to be rostered any longer include: Gio Bernard, Chase Edmonds, D'Andre Swift, Mike Davis, Zack Moss, Jerick McKinnon, Christian Kirk, Jerry Jeudy, Sammy Watkins, Travis Fulgham, Austin Hooper, Jonnu Smith, Jimmy Graham, Drew Brees, and Carson Wentz.

Consider replacing these guys with a high-upside option, even if it means a backup RB such as Jamaal Williams or Phillip Lindsay or Alexander Mattison. Other players that weren't anywhere on the fantasy radar before this week are now high-priority adds for anyone regardless of standing. Cam Akers, Keke Coutee, and T.Y. Hilton should be added everywhere. Even if you don't consider them superior choices to your current starters, consider it a form of defense by preventing your league mates from acquiring them.

Of course, for the full set of waiver wire options at each position, I've got you covered every week.

Plan for the Future Today

While you have plenty of time to worry about your Week 15 lineup, it doesn't hurt to plan ahead. It might seem counterintuitive to set a future lineup before seeing what transpires in the coming week's slate but this strategy can help you make decisions objectively rather than reactively. If you look at Antonio Brown's mouthwatering schedule with Atlanta and Detroit in Week 15-16 (not to mention Minnesota in Week 14) and set him as your WR3, it's a sound decision.

If someone like CeeDee Lamb happens to have a monster game against the aforementioned Bengals in Week 14, it could sway your decision despite the fact he then has a negative matchup with the 49ers in Week 15. Sure, you know better and would never make a reactionary decision but recency bias is very real, especially when stakes are high.

Fantasy football is a week-to-week affair. You don't get points for having the most exciting young player on your squad, nor do you earn points for past performances. Take a cold, hard look at who can reasonably be projected to score the most at his position in a given matchup and roll with that player, regardless of name value or social media hotness.

Stream On

Similar to the advice above, if you stream DST throughout the season and plan to continue doing so in the playoffs, start looking ahead. Some of the best team defenses to stash for Week 15 include the following:

• Seattle Seahawks Defense @ Washington Football Team
• Baltimore Ravens Defense vs Jacksonville Jaguars
• Buffalo Bills Defense @ Denver Broncos
• Arizona Cardinals Defense vs Philadelphia Eagles
• San Francisco 49ers Defense @ Dallas Cowboys

The Steelers Defense and Rams Defense are the top choices with the Miami Dolphins coming in third, but it's highly unlikely those units can be found on waivers.

If you find yourself with an open roster spot because a player is moved to IR/COVID or you simply have a droppable player as mentioned above, be smart and stash ahead of time rather than occupying that space with something useless like a backup tight end or fifth WR who isn't cracking the starting lineup for you barring disaster.

Outsmart the System

Some of the more thoughtful users on Reddit, particularly u/leopoldo90 who explained this in detail, mentioned a trick you may want to employ if playing on Yahoo!

Players in your starting lineup for the active week cannot be dropped between the time their game kicks off and the scoring week is finalized. That means that if you want to cut a player who gets seriously injured, plummets in value, or you simply want to add a high-upside free agent instead, you are forced to wait until the waiver period opens for the following week. If all your players are benched, you avoid that situation and can make the necessary move at any time.

With no matchup in place, there's no need to field a lineup anyway. So, bench everyone for Week 14 and keep your eyes peeled. Just make sure to put everyone back in before Thursday night!

Talk Trash Like You Mean It

Gaining a psychological edge never hurts, even if it has absolutely no impact on the actual outcome. You're the top dog (or at least one of them) in your league so you've earned the right to talk smack and claim your team is the best until someone proves otherwise.

If you get detailed enough to dive into your opponent's lineup decisions and make them second-guess their choices, you may even talk yourself into an advantage by pointing out questionable matchups, stating your concerns about the wind that their quarterback will be playing in the coming week. You get the idea.

As nice as it feels to be on top, you are fully aware that your success may be fleeting. Carpe the diem out of this moment as much as you can. Of course, you could be eating a mouthful of crow if you get bounced by an underdog, but at least you enjoyed yourself for one week...

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